The last time the Yankees faced the Orioles on July 14, they left a bad taste in Baltimore’s mouth. After leading the division by as much as four and a half games the previous month, the Yankees went on an 11-20 run that gave the Orioles a chance to not only close the gap, but take the lead themselves.
New York won the first two games of the July series to tie the division. They were close to reclaiming the division lead when Ben Rice hit a dramatic three-run home run in the ninth inning to give the Yankees a 5-3 lead. Two errors by Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo with two outs put the Orioles in sole possession of first place, handing the Yankees one of their most depressing losses of the season.
By outplaying Baltimore in the interim, the Yankees have secured a chance to knock off the AL East this week. With a six-game lead and six games left to play, the Yankees will clinch the division (and a first-round bye) unless they are defeated twice this week while Baltimore tops the standings. With those stakes, it’s worth thinking about this matchup of the series beyond our standard evaluation of the likely pitchers. Here’s the current state of Baltimore’s offense, which will try to keep the Yankees’ champagne on ice.
The Orioles’ leadoff man is reigning Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, who is having a stellar season with 37 home runs and a .903 OPS while playing shortstop every day and grabbing 20 bases. He’s put on some of his best performances this month, hitting .338/.409/.597 and is a major threat every time he steps up to bat. In a world without Bobby Witt Jr., he’d likely be Aaron Judge’s biggest competition for AL MVP.
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde started versatile infielder Jordan Westburg in both the batting order and in the outfield at second base in his return Sunday after missing nearly two months with an injury. The All-Star rookie made 4-of-10 hits in his rehab period before being called up and has a .269/.317/.498 batting average this year.
Switch-hitter Anthony Santander has been a serious threat from third this season, hitting a career-high 43 home runs (only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani were ahead of him). However, with a .308 OBP this year, the impending free agent can be handled if you keep him in the park. As a cleanup, the Orioles have started using Colton Cowser in recent weeks. Despite a slow start to the year, the AL Rookie of the Year candidate has picked up steam in the second half, hitting .274/.345/.471 with 10 home runs in 60 games.
After playing second for most of the year, Adley Rutschman was demoted to fifth. It’s been a story of two seasons for the reigning Silver Slugger as a catcher. Before the All-Star break, he posted an OPS of .780 with 16 home runs, but in the 53 games since then, he’s posted just an OPS of .594 with three home runs. The switch-hitter has struggled this season, especially on the left side, posting an OPS of .640 against right-handers, but an OPS of .901 against left-handers.
It’s a similar story with Ryan O’Hearn, the Orioles’ signature six-hole hitter. After building on his 2023 breakthrough with a strong first half, the first baseman has posted a miserable .232/.323/.342 with just two home runs since the All-Star break. The left-hander has been particularly neutralized by left-handers and has had to concede playing time against left-handed starter Coby Mayo. The Orioles’ top prospect has not found his rhythm as a part-time player, managing a slugging percentage of just .098 in his first 46 MLB at-bats.
Expect former second-rounder Heston Kjerstad to DH and bat seventh. The 25-year-old has already shown signs of the talent that earned him his high selection, but is stuck in a long slump, posting a .195 batting average without an extra-base hit in his last 48 at-bats.
In addition to Westburg, Ramón Urías made his first start off the injured list on Friday, playing third and batting ninth. The 30-year-old was in the midst of a career year when he got hurt, posting a .252/.326/.424 batting average. He will likely take over the job as everyday hot corner from Emmanuel Rivera, who posted a solid .780 OPS in 23 games with Baltimore after being DFA’ed by the Marlins in August. After a stretch in the second spot, Hyde dropped Cedric Mullins to ninth on Sunday when Westburg and Urías were activated. The center fielder, who turns 30 next week, is the rare Oriole who has caught up in the second half, posting an .824 OPS after a disappointing start to the year.
If Hyde’s lineup card from Sunday is any indication of his plans for the rest of the game, Jackson Holliday could be the odd man out. MLB’s most promising prospect entering the year, Holliday had just a .059 batting average in his first 10 games earlier this year before being demoted. While he was better the second time around, he still posted an unsightly .195/.253/.342 batting average for the rest of the game and may have to wait until 2025 for his next extended opportunity.
Baltimore has three additional reserves who could be used in this series. Veteran backup catcher James McCann has actually hit much better than Rutschman in the second half, albeit in only 82 at-bats. DH Eloy Jiménez has been, perhaps unsurprisingly to outsiders, a major disappointment since arriving in a midseason trade from the White Sox; he has started just once since Sept. 13 and was just demoted with the return of Ryan Mountcastle (whose 111 OPS+ should give Hyde hope despite a .567 OPS in August before his wrist sprain). In his third team of the season, Austin Slater has been a useful all-around player for the O’s, posting a .667 OPS and playing all three outfield positions.
With Westburg and Urías back in the fold, Hyde has the opportunity to shape his lineup the way he wants to use it in October. Henderson is the Orioles’ most consistent hitter, Santander the most threatening power threat, Cowser a solid all-around hitter and Mullins a reliable veteran. The rest of the lineup is in flux, a mix of struggling starters and players just coming back from IL time. If the Yankees’ pitchers can keep them in check, they’re on track to win the AL East.
