Greg Auman
NFC South Reporter
Carmen Vitali
NFC North Reporter
Our NFL writers agreed across the board that the kings of the NFL lie in the north.
Which north is the question here.
When predicting the NFL’s best division for 2024, we split almost evenly between the AFC North, a longtime division power, and the resurgent NFC North. The NFC North, formerly the black and blue division, has plenty of young, physical talent that looks to be competitive now and in the future. The AFC North are the established teams that are used to this type of physical football in both the recent past and present.
Does the NFC North have a good chance of toppling the current regime? Let’s settle this in an old-fashioned debate. Carmen Vitali and Greg Auman will do the honors.
This speaks for the NFC North
Let’s be clear, it’s splitting hairs to argue between the two northern divisions in particular. Both the AFC North and NFC North will be extremely tough (and extremely fun) divisions to keep an eye on this season and beyond.
For the sake of argument, however, let us take this question apart.
Although the NFC North hasn’t established itself as such a strong division recently, I’m betting it will remain so for many years to come when we look into the crystal ball. The Green Bay Packers are already there, who have once again made a seamless transition to another franchise quarterback, and this time he helped the league’s youngest team reach the playoffs in his first year as a starter. The Packers have so much faith in Jordan Love that they made him the highest-paid player in the league, tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.
The division’s other playoff team for 2023 was the Detroit Lions, who suddenly became the team to beat after making it to the NFC title game. They too have a young but productive core, with key players like Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch under the team’s control until at least 2026. They also have their veteran players like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell locked up with lucrative long-term contracts. The Lions plan to remain a nuisance for a while yet.
Not to be outdone, come the Chicago Bears. They’ve only had two preseason games with Caleb Williams, but there’s optimism that he is indeed the prince that was promised. Combined with the fact that he has every offensive weapon a rookie quarterback could dream of and a defense that could be in the top five in the league alongside him, the Bears could be competitive and make the playoffs as soon as this season. General manager Ryan Poles has spent three years building this roster for continued success.
Then there are the Minnesota Vikings, who clearly want to punish the football gods but still don’t want to die. Despite the injury to first-round pick JJ McCarthy, they have Sam Darnold under the tutelage of a phenomenal coaching staff with several former quarterbacks. They also have the offensive talent needed – especially if tight end TJ Hockenson returns from injury. The defense should limit the number of points scored against them, so they won’t be an easy proposition even if the Vikings aren’t thinking about the playoffs this year.
That’s the most important thing to me. Is the projected fourth-place team in the NFC North (the Vikings) better than the projected fourth-place team in the AFC North (the Steelers)? I think so. Minnesota has the best wide receiver in the league and one of the most creative defensive players, armed with two potential double-digit sack artists. All of that falls into the category of Kevin O’Connell, whose accomplishments continue to be underrated. I’d pick Minnesota’s roster pretty quickly over Pittsburgh’s, and that gives the NFC North the edge as king in my eyes. — Carmen Vitali
The argument for the AFC North
The best division in the NFL in 2024? It will be the AFC North again.
Here are simple, indisputable facts: All four teams in the AFC North – the Ravens, Browns, Steelers and Bengals – finished winning last season, giving the division the best record in football at 43-25. The NFC North, on the other hand, was barely above .500 at 35-33 eight games earlier.
The Ravens have made it to the AFC Championship Game for the third consecutive year as the AFC North team, and while no one is doubting the Chiefs’ status as the dominant NFL team during that time, their division lacks any significant roster depth below the defending champions.
But the AFC North? Last year’s success came despite Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow playing just 10 games and Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson playing just 6. Both are healthy for 2024, and that has raised expectations for the Bengals so much that they finished fourth in their division but now have the league’s sixth-best Super Bowl chances. Pittsburgh, which won 10 games with barely any help at the quarterback position, now has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who combined to start 28 games last year, instead of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, who may not start a single game in 2024.
Las Vegas bookies still consider the AFC North to be the best division in the NFL. Adding up the over/unders for total wins in 2024, the four teams in the AFC North are expected to win 38 games (again, a conservative estimate of five fewer than last year), two more than the NFC North, the second-best division.
The AFC North is also the division to beat in the latest NFL rankings from FOX Sports. When you add up the rankings of each team, the AFC North – with three teams in the top 10 – has the lowest overall ranking, four spots ahead of the NFC North and 11 spots ahead of everyone else.
I can see why the NFC North is so exciting. Chicago’s Caleb Williams is the No. 1 overall pick and a reason for optimism in Chicago. And Green Bay’s Jordan Love is still coming on in his second year as an NFL starter. Detroit is a serious Super Bowl contender, but Minnesota is likely taking a step back and moving from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, who is stepping in after JJ McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury. It’s hard to make a case for them having four teams that are playoff contenders like their counterparts in the AFC North do.
When discussing the merits of two Northern divisions, we can also use an old hockey statistic: plus-minus. It’s not even close when it comes to the 2023 total point differential: AFC North teams scored 199 points more than their opponents, and no other division is better than plus-57, with the NFC North at plus-52. The NFC’s top division will narrow the gap next season, but will it be 147 points better?
If anyone can stop the Chiefs from reaching another Super Bowl, it’s the AFC North, whether it’s Baltimore, which lost the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore by seven points last year, or Cincinnati, which tied the Chiefs for a Super Bowl spot until the final three seconds two years ago and eliminated them the year before that. The Ravens have the reigning league MVP in Lamar Jackson, and from top to bottom, no division in football is producing more dangerous, playoff-ready teams than the AFC North is again this season. — Greg Auman
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Greg has been covering the NFL full-time for 10 years, having previously worked at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
Carmen Vitali is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen previously worked at The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl champion (and boat parade participant) to her resume. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.
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