Waiver Declaration Next Week: Tyler Badie, Noah Brown and more players to add now – ahead of Week 5 rush

Welcome back to another season of fantasy football speculation. Use our patented, data-driven, formula-based approach to discover next week’s waiver headliners…today. Position by position, I dig into my favorite obscure stats related to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mix them all together and hopefully find some cheap fantasy gems that I can grab now before the squares do. Then, for any last-minute managers on the go, I’m adding a new section – “Sunday’s Streaming Service” – to help fill 11th-hour gaps in first-come, free agency leagues .

Quarterbacks

When I started collecting obscure data, I realized something. The small nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to list all available free agents rather than isolating specific statistics. So please enjoy the images courtesy of Trumedia. When looking for a fantasy quarterback, we obviously need volume, but also a willingness to push the ball downfield – so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth are established, it’s time to plot the expected completion rate of EPA/attempts and NextGen stats to complete the picture by combining good play and efficiency. (pictures below)

Week 3 brought some big shakeups at the QB position – particularly in Carolina – but that’s no reason to get ahead of ourselves. Before you browse the bargain bin, make sure this is the case Sam Darnold And Derek Carr are no longer available. Still, my favorite bubble QB with a chance to be in the top seven is still there Geno Smithalthough the volume chart insists we take a closer look Deshaun Watson. That’s why including EPA and accuracy is so important, to account for all the inexcusable negatives that Watson creates with his poor decision making. When Geno is gone, I switch through mobile shot callers Justin Fields And Daniel Jones.

Running backs

Since we’re coming to you after the first series of weekly dispensations, I won’t repeat the usual suspects – we’re here to get weird. However, make sure to add popular adds Bucky Irving, Carson Steele, Braelon Allen And Roshon Johnson Have a home before you dive deep into the dumpster. Last year I proved my success by moving away from the lowest hanging fruit in Total Touches. Instead, I describe load slightly differently using touch-per-snap rate, which provides a unique perspective on frequency without the need for volume. Then I break out the microscope and look for largely unranked ball carriers who are showing top-notch efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: If a player appears on both lists, we’ll likely need to prioritize him as a speculative addition.

4 available RBs with +44.0% touch-per-snap rate (min. 10 touches)

6 available RBs with +0.40 fantasy points per snap

• Tyler Badie, DEN – 0.65 FPS/snap
• Ray Davis, BUF – 0.53 FPS/snap
• Ty Johnson, BUF – 0.51 FPS/snap
• Khalil Herbert, CHI – 0.50 FPS/snap
• Alexander Mattison, LV – 0.49 FPS/snap
• Emanuel Wilson, UK – 0.47 FPS/snap

At the risk of sounding fraudulent, what is the point of this exercise if we ignore it? Tyler Badie is one of only two RBs to appear on both lists, legitimately focus while playing and then make the most of it. He also has better chances than Ray Davis that he took the lion’s share of the backfield touches for his team without injury. To be honest, I was hesitant to get involved in the Broncos’ backfield situation. Although Javonte Williams has been woefully unproductive on the ground so far with 2.1 yards/carry (-2.1 above expectations), he appears to have the majority of passes/third downs for Denver under control due to his pass blocking abilities – and then we have to deal with it with Jaleel McLaughlin lurking. Maybe it’s time to rethink that premise for a chance at base work and TD equity in a potentially ascendant offense. And that’s only if Sean Payton figures something out with newbie Bo Nix. However, I know a lot of it was in the trash, but Denver is looking for an answer, and if we see a repeat in terms of utilization, other than Badie getting a goal-to-go carry this time, he’s a strong candidate to headline next week’s mainstream columns.

Wide receiver

As with the RBs, make sure this week’s universal supplements are available Jauan Jennings, Rome Odunze, Xavier Legette, And Darnell Mooney I already belong to a squad. With that out of the way, any smart fantasy manager knows that targets are earned – which is exactly why the talent level at the position is so important. Achieving goals is the vehicle for WR speculation – the opportunities will come. And while playtime is nice, it’s not enough. Snap count is a good measure of general usage, but routes perform better in testing. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking the field? I don’t. Let’s see who ran both routes and attracted an above-average number of looks.

6 available WRs with +15 routes run per game, +16% targets per route, and +0.20 fantasy points per route

• Alec Pierce, IND – 24.7 Rte/Gm, 16.2% TPRR, 0.59 FPS/Rte
• Allen Lazard, NYJ – 30.0 Rte/Gm, 17.8% TPRR, 0.49 FPS/Rte
• Noah Brown, WAS – 15.0 Rte/Gm, 20.0% TPRR, 0.48 FPS/Rte
• Calvin Austin III, PIT – 16.3 Rte/Gm, 18.4% TPRR, 0.47 FPS/Rte
• Devaughn Vele, DEN – 29.0 Rte/Gm, 27.6% TPRR, 0.41 FPS/Rte
• Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG – 29.3 Rte/Gm, 27.3% TPRR, 0.39 FPS/Rte

The free agent cupboard was rapidly emptying as the NFL’s dead ball era led to mass panic buying for pass catchers. Without an obvious target, give me the best of a bad situation – the commander. Noah Brown. Since his return in Week 2, Brown is either tied or leading all Washington wideouts not named Terry McLaurin in targets, catches, yards, yards/route, 1st down/reception, explosive catch rate and air yards per target. I’m not sure how many rookie WRs Jayden Daniels can support, but I love the target types. Brown’s ability to challenge the middle of the field with quality crossing routes (below) should give him the best ceiling/floor combination available.

Tight ends

Remember to ensure this week’s top new arrivals Cole Kmet, Colby Parkinson And Tyler Conklin don’t float around first. It’s been a rough start for the game’s weakest position, but I refuse to capitulate to TE agnosticism. This could well end up as a futile exercise, but in these fantasy streets there is no retreat and no surrender. Since then, I’ve incorporated quality red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but right now only three tight ends check all three boxes.

3 TEs with +10% team target share, +6.0 air yards per target and +0.33 target/play in the red zone

• Mike Gesicki, CIN – 17.8% Team Tgt, 7.6 AY/Tar, 0.7 RZ Tar/Gm
• Brenton Strange, JAX – 12.2% Team Tgt, 11.0 AY/Tar, 0.7 RZ Tar/Gm
• Hayden Hurst, LAC – 11.1% Team Tgt, 6.6 AY/Tar, 0.3 RZ Tar/Gm

Top stashes

Week 4 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% listed per Yahoo!)

• QB – Andy Dalton, CAR vs. CIN
• RB – Khalil Herbert, CHI against LAR
• RB – Tyler Badie, DEN at NYJ
• WR – Xavier Legette, CAR vs. CIN
• WR – Greg Dortch, ARI vs. WAS
• TE – Brenton Strange, JAX @ HOU
• K – Matt Prater, ARI vs. DET
• DST – Raiders vs. CLE

Thanks for reading – the comments, feedback and general response to the article have been almost overwhelming. If you have any comments or questions, you can always let my managers know how I’m doing. Be sure to follow me on

(Top photo by Tyler Badie: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn)