Hurricane Francine has brought some drought-ending rain to parts of Alabama. A little too much in some places, for sure. And on Friday night, it brought damaging winds to Blount County. Along with thousands of trees that fell in the storm’s gradient winds. Scattered rain showers should continue today. Let’s look at the rest of the forecast.
SUMMARY
As the weekend winds down, the remnants of Hurricane Francine continue to impact weather in Alabama. The system, now a weak low pressure system near Greenwood, Mississippi, is bringing showers and thunderstorms to much of central Alabama. Flash flood warnings remain in effect through early Sunday morning and may be extended for parts of today as additional heavy precipitation could cause localized flooding in already saturated areas. When Francine finally exits the region on Monday, we will see a break in the rain and a transition to drier, more stable conditions mid-week. A period of calm, warm weather is expected for the second half of the week, with sunny skies and seasonal returns to temperatures.
Wet start (Sunday to Monday night)
Rain will continue on Sunday as moisture continues to flow in from the southeast. Patches of fog are expected in the morning, with rain during the day, with isolated thunderstorms possible. A fresh wind will be blowing, with gusts of up to 40 km/h. Rain will ease on Sunday evening, but isolated showers are possible through Monday. Highs will remain cool, around 24 °C on Sunday, warming to just over 27 °C by Monday afternoon. Partly cloudy overnight into Monday, with lows falling to just over 16 °C.
DRY AND WARMER (TUESDAY TO FRIDAY)
Tuesday marks the start of a drier and sunnier spell as a high pressure system builds up behind the receding low pressure system. From Tuesday to Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the 30s, lows in the 15s. Winds will remain light and easterly, and there is little to no chance of rain during this time. This break in the rain will bring much-needed relief to the flooded areas.
Weekend outlook
Conditions will remain favorable through next weekend, with plenty of sunshine expected. Highs will be around 30 degrees, with lows a comfortable 15 degrees. The pleasant weather should continue through Saturday, making it a perfect weekend for outdoor activities throughout central Alabama. Whether you’re attending a college football game or enjoying the outdoors, calm and dry conditions will prevail.
VOODOO AREA (22-28 SEPTEMBER)
The GFS shows a frontal system approaching the region mid-week, on Wednesday the 25th and Thursday the 26th, bringing a line of showers and storms to Alabama. The GFS also indicates a possible increase in tropical activity in the western Caribbean during this week, but it is too early to tell for sure.
BEACH FORECAST
If you’re heading to the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida this week, the weather will be relatively calm along the Gulf Coast. However, showers and storms are almost certain to occur Monday night. The risk of rip currents remains low and surf heights will remain around 12 inches. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially during the afternoon hours. By midweek, beach conditions will improve with sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees. Just be cautious if storms develop and go indoors if necessary.
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
Tropical Storm Gordon, currently located about 1,300 miles (2,100 kilometers) west-northwest of Cape Verde, is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this morning. The storm remains under the influence of moderate wind shear and dry air, which will continue to hamper its development. Gordon is expected to continue its westward path before turning west-southwest, possibly dissipating into a remnant low by mid-week. Meanwhile, off the southeastern U.S. coast, a low pressure system has a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days. This system could reach the Carolinas by Monday, with heavy rains, coastal flooding and rough seas expected.
DAMAGING WIND EVENT IN BLOUNT COUNTY
On Friday evening, a destructive storm struck Blount County near Locust Fork. Straight-line winds of 50-60 mph knocked down trees and power lines over a wide area. The event began at 6:24 p.m. and ended at 6:31 p.m. Fortunately, no injuries were reported. The National Weather Service confirmed that this event was not caused by a tornado, but by widespread straight-line winds, but it still resulted in several uprooted trees, damage to homes and vehicles, and power outages.
DANCING WITH THE STATISTICS
Birmingham weather was nearly normal on September 14, 2024, with a high of just 74°F, well below the normal 87°F for this time of year. Precipitation total for the day was 2.32 inches, just under an inch below the daily record of 3.22 inches set in 1900. That brings the total for the current month to 3.17 inches, which is 1.21 inches above normal. For the year, Birmingham recorded 37.83 inches of rain, still 4.31 inches below average for this time. I measured 3.15 inches right on Acton Road in Vestavia. My storm total is 3.70 inches. Not a bad forecast after all!
WEATHERBRAINS EPISODE UPDATE
The latest episode of WeatherBrains featured guest Luke Dorris, who discussed the unique meteorological challenges of forecasting KC and South Florida and how volcanoes are impacting this hurricane season. We also took a deep dive into hurricane dynamics and trends. If you missed the episode, catch up to gain valuable insight into tropical weather forecasting. Visit us at www.weatherbrains.com. And get the audio version wherever you get your podcast.
ON THIS DAY IN 20024: Hurricane Ivan approached the Alabama coast as a powerful Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (217 km/h). The massive hurricane produced destructive storm surge, flooding, and widespread tornado outbreaks as it approached land. Coastal communities from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Apalachicola, Florida, braced for impact, and mandatory evacuations were ordered along the Alabama coast, where state troopers had established a two-way lane on I-65. Ivan’s enormous size and slow forward speed contributed to extended periods of hurricane-force winds, storm surge flooding, and significant coastal erosion. The storm would make landfall around 2 a.m. on September 16, causing lasting impacts across Alabama and the Gulf Coast.
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