Track the path, forecast and status of Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton is expected to continue to develop rapidly as it absorbs its natural fuel, warm water in the Gulf of Mexico.

In an overnight bulletin Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said Milton was likely to strengthen into a major hurricane within about 24 hours, with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.

NBC News forecasters said Milton could reach Category 4 (with a threshold of 130 mph sustained winds) and weaken back to Category 3 before making landfall on Florida’s west coast Wednesday afternoon.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Milton will likely brush past the tip of the Yucatán Peninsula early Monday afternoon.

According to the center, the storm is expected to be north of Yucatán, between Mexico and Cuba, in an east-northeast direction at the same time on Tuesday. Forecasts indicate it could produce sustained winds of 145 miles per hour, making it a Category 4 hurricane.

According to NBC News meteorologists, Florida’s west coast was expected to experience rain, strong winds and possible storm surge Tuesday evening.

Sometime Wednesday afternoon, the storm is expected to make landfall between the Tampa Bay area and Naples as a Category 3 hurricane.

Danger of storms

Federal forecasters said Milton would unleash life-threatening storm surges along nearly all of Florida’s west coast, while also triggering flash flooding and damaging winds initially forecast at speeds of 111 miles per hour and above near its center.

Rain and isolated tornadoes were forecast for areas across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night, with the storm moving east and into the open Atlantic by Thursday.

Coastal and inland cities including Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach, Sarasota, Fort Myers and Naples are at risk of significant impacts, including wind-related power outages, flash flooding and storm surge flooding, NBC News forecasters said.

Up to 20 cm of rain was forecast, with storm surges of 1.80 m and more possible for coastal towns, it said.

Milton’s rare origins

Milton’s rapid rise has rattled a southeastern region still recovering from Hurricane Helene, which made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Sept. 26, killing more than 230 people in six states.

The latest hurricane is a rare product of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico rather than the Caribbean or Atlantic.

Milton began as Tropical Depression 14 in the Gulf of Campeche, sheltered behind the western coast of Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

A hurricane taking this path from the Bay of Campeche to Florida is exceptionally rare – the last recorded occurrence was in 1867.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Depression 14 had developed into Tropical Storm Milton late Saturday afternoon.

As of 1 p.m. Sunday, the storm 290 miles west-northwest of Progreso intensified into Hurricane Milton, a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of at least 74 mph.