To kick off Amazon’s Prime Video TNF package, a divisional duel between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins will take place on Thursday evening.
Although the season is still early, this South Beach match could have significant playoff implications later on.
For now, here are three player props worth considering for this primetime duel that could even excite Al Michaels.
Best Bets: Player Props Bills vs. Dolphins
Tyreek Hill under 96.5 receiving yards (-110, bet365)
I know. I’m asking you to overshadow the best wide receiver in football, but look at the numbers the Bills have put up for him since he traded to the Dolphins: 7-69, 7-82, 3-58, 9-69 and 2-33. That’s an average of 62.2 yards per game.
Buffalo has two excellent boundary cornerbacks in Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas, who ranked seventh and 10th in PFF’s coverage ratings among 75 qualified cornerbacks last season.
Miami uses the motion to give it free space at the line of scrimmage, but Buffalo excels at keeping the opposing offense on its toes with a diverse coverage scheme that adapts and changes throughout the game.
Sean McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich can keep Hill in check here.
Dalton Kincaid over 42.5 yards gain (-113, Fanatics)
For anyone who bet on Dalton Kincaid early in fantasy football, Week 1 was disappointing, but I expect the Bills tight end to bounce back in Week 2.
In Week 1 film, Kincaid can be seen in the Cardinals uniforms on every dropback, but don’t expect the Dolphins to be as aggressive in taking him out of the game on Thursday night.
Kincaid finished second on the team with 16 routes from the slot last week, which is excellent for this matchup.
Kader Kohou, the Dolphins’ nickelback, allowed 40 of 45 receptions in the slot last year. It was a similar story in Week 1, allowing four receptions for 67 yards and finishing with a brutal PFF coverage grade of 33.1.
Kincaid still had an 80% route run rate in Week 1 — the second-highest on the team — and finished his last game against Miami with seven catches for 84 yards.
He managed that yardage prop in seven of 10 games last year with a snap share of at least 60% and averaged 49.1 yards in those spots.
Jonnu Smith over 15.5 yards gain (-113, FanDuel)
One of the Dolphins’ more underrated signings of the offseason was the addition of tight end Jonnu Smith. The Dolphins can use Smith as a versatile chess piece who is good at both blocking and catching the ball in the backfield. We’ve seen him work in the backfield quite a bit in training camp, and with Raheem Mostert out this week and De’Von Achane questionable, his role here could be larger.
Smith was second on the team with 12 routes from the slot last week, and the Bills had to rely on former UDFA Cam Lewis as their slot defender after Taron Johnson went out with an arm injury. He performed admirably, but I still expect Mike McDaniel to attack that spot, especially in the red zone.
Be ready to jump on that prop if De’Von Achane is out tomorrow. Achane ran ten routes from the slot last week, and those opportunities would be consolidated with Jonnu Smith having more volume on Thursday. Even if Achane plays, his snap count could be limited on a short week, especially since it’s still early in the season.
Betting on the NFL?
Smith led all qualified tight ends last season with 7.3 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC) and ranked 11th with 1.55 yards per route run. With the amount of space he will find in the Mike McDaniel offense, he will have some productive games this year, and this matchup is very favorable. I would also consider a bet on his touchdown odds, which are currently available at +425 on DraftKings.
