Mitch was trapped in a space station.
Up until this point, being in the space station had been pretty cool. They had spent their time doing cool experiments, learning exciting new things, playing zero-gravity games with friends, and just enjoying the wonder and vastness of space or looking out the windows at the beautiful planet (and Earth, too).
But there has been a problem for the last week.
There was a small leak somewhere in the station. It was not a crisis, it was just a small leak. But with each day that passed without the source of the leak being identified, it became harder and harder to breathe. Some of it was probably psychosomatic, but some of it was real. There was probably There was still enough time to find and repair the leak. But with each passing day, it became more and more certain that no one would find it, that the overloaded air recyclers would fail and Mitch would suffocate in space with all his friends.
Then someone finally found the leak. A short time later the leak was repaired and suddenly FinallyMitch and everyone else could breathe freely and easily for the first time in a week.
The Royals fan base is Mitch. Michael Massey found the leak when he scored a run during Wednesday night’s game. Tommy Pham fixed it when he hit a three-run home run to give the Royals their first multi-run lead in over a week. Royals fans breathed a sigh of relief once again as the win was secured.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Royals’ remaining regular-season schedule, expecting them to reach 90 wins, but even if they didn’t reach 90 wins, they could easily clinch a postseason berth. They’re now 14 games into a 20-game stretch that many have dubbed “The Gauntlet” or “The Gauntlet Part Deux” in which they only faced playoff contenders. It didn’t go as well as everyone had hoped, made worse by a seven-game losing streak that quickly made it feel like the Royals would never win again.
During the same period, however, the Red Sox and the Twins – the other two teams that were serious contenders for the last Wild Card spots at the time – achieved a record of 3-10 and 5-8. And neither the Twins nor the Red Sox faced a single First place team in this period, while the Royals are 5-9 against exclusively First place teams!
The Guardians have unfortunately rebounded from a terrible August in great fashion, once again extending their division lead by a significant margin. But even with the division (most likely) out of reach and coming off a terrible seven-game losing streak, the Royals’ playoff chances seem better than ever.
All three major playoff odds sites now have the Royals’ chances of making the playoffs above 80%*. Their magic number is decreasing every day. Technically and mathematically, it’s still possible for them to be eliminated. But even if the Tigers and Mariners try to get back into the game, the Royals are so far ahead that it will be nearly impossible for anyone to catch them.
*For comparison, the Tigers, Mariners and Red Sox – the teams that are “chasing” the Royals – currently each have playoff chances of less than 10%.
But maybe you still don’t believe me. So let’s go ahead and predict the schedules of the Twins, Red Sox, Tigers and Guardians and see what happens. (Note: I made most of these predictions before last weekend, before I had to abruptly change course when Vinnie got hurt. I left these predictions in so you can judge my accuracy so far.**)
First, a reminder of what I expected from the Royals:
- Phillies: 1-2 *This happened
- @ Guardian: 2-2 *The Royals won an additional game
- @ Astros: 1-3 *The Royals lost an additional game
- Guardians: 2-1 *The Royals lost another extra game
- Twins: 1-2
- @ Yankees: 1-2
- @ Pirates: 2:1
- Tigers: 3:0
- Giants: 2-1
- @ Nationals: 2:1
- @ Atlanta: 2:1
Originally, that would have given the Royals 90 wins. The Royals won an additional road game against the Guardians, but then got swept by the Astros – which I admit was entirely plausible – before losing an additional game at home to the Guardians as well. That means they’re now targeting 89 wins. So let’s look at the remaining Red Sox schedule.
- @ Tigers 1-2 *This happened
- @ Mets 1-2 *You have lost an additional game
- White Sox 3-0
- : Orioles 1-2
- @ Yankees 1-3
- @ Rays 1-2
- Twins 1-2
- @Blue Jays 2-1
- Rays 2-1
If they had gone that route, they would have gone 13-15 in the remaining 28 games. That would have given them a final score of 82-80. They would have missed the playoffs entirely. I was originally worried that I might be a little pessimistic about their chances, but after getting swept by the Mets, they’re already playing behind that pace.
If the Royals had only played .500 at that point, the Red Sox would have to go 16-6. That’s not going to happen. If the Royals had played 7-14 — a truly awful winning percentage of .333 — the Red Sox would still have to go 13-9. That’s not going to happen, either.
I’ve repeatedly stressed on the podcast, in the rumors, and on Twitter that the Tigers aren’t a real threat. But hey, I’ll do that for the Tigers too.*
*These predictions were made this week because I originally refused to even consider them as contenders when I first tried to write this
- @ Athletics 2:1
- Rockies 2-1
- : Orioles 1-2
- @ Royals 1–2
- @ Orioles 0-3
- Rays 2-1
- White Sox 3-0
If the Tigers can do that, they would finish 82-80, the same as the Red Sox and not nearly as good as the Royals. However, the Tigers are even worse off than the Red Sox because while the Red Sox have the tiebreaker over the Royals and can easily overtake them by winning as many games as the Royals, the Tigers would have to win one more game than the Royals. And in many ways, that’s a very optimistic assessment of the Tigers’ chances. A win over the White Sox is no guarantee. Neither is a series win against the Rays. Maybe the Orioles would have a hard time beating them, but they could also slip up and lose an extra game to the Athletics or Rockies. They almost got beat in San Diego!
Next we take a look at the twins
- : Blue Jays 2-1 *This happened
- @ Rays 2-2 *This happened
- @Royals 2-1
- Angel 2-1
- Reds 2-1
- @ Guardians 1-3
- @ Red Sox 2-1
- Marlins 2-1
- : Orioles 1-2
The Twins would go 16-13 in the remaining schedule. That would put them at 88-74. That is If They win two of three games against the Royals and do not let themselves fall again until the end – before that they lost five of six games against the equally defeated Cardinals and the barely keeping up Atlanta.
Finally, just for fun, let’s talk about the Guardians. When I made all these predictions, the Guardians were in crisis and the Division seemed much more attainable.
- Pirates 2-1 *This happened
- @ Royals 1–2 *You have won an additional game.
- @ Dodgers 0-3
- @ White Sox 2-1
- Rays 2-1
- Twins 3-1
- @ Cardinals 1-2
- Reds 1-1
- Astros 1-2
If they had gone that route, they would have gone 13-14 in their last 27 games. That would have given them a final record of 89-73. So now they are at 90. If they deviate from that, I expect them to be better. They might only win once against the White Sox, since they went 5-5 against them. But they might tie with the Twins, even though the Twins had outscored them before. Or maybe the Dodgers can’t beat them.
The Guardians seem destined to lose the division, just as the third wild card spot belongs to the Royals. Still, it seems more reasonable to dream of a division win than of missing the playoffs, even though the teams are separated by a similar number of games. Why? Because the Guardians, like the Red Sox and Twins, haven’t been particularly good since the break, while the Royals have been good despite their seven-game losing streak. Still, that difference is only enough to give the Royals an outside chance at the division.
If this all played out as I predicted, the Royals would lose the division by just one game and finish just ahead of the Twins in the second wild card. However, if the Guardians lose an extra game or the Royals win an extra game, the Royals would win the division because they have the tiebreaker in the direct comparison with the Guardians.
Regardless, it should now be completely clear what the title of this article means:
The Royals will definitely make the playoffs.
The Red Sox simply don’t have the tools to get there. The Tigers are, in some ways at least, in an even worse position. The Mariners are in a similar position to the Tigers, but they can’t even count on three games against the White Sox.
That means the Royals’ playoff battle will be in the Central, not over who gets to the playoffs. As impossible as it seemed last season, the incredibly strong AL Central will send three teams this year: the Guardians, Twins and Royals. The battle will be all about who takes the division crown and which two teams fill the last two wild card spots.
It’s an important battle, no doubt. Winning the division guarantees at least a chance to host the Wild Card round. Trying to win two out of three games in Houston, Baltimore or New York wouldn’t be a series anyone would feel good about. Doing it in Cleveland or Minnesota wouldn’t be fun, either.
But it is, remarkably, not a fight for get in the playoffs. That’s a foregone conclusion. Anyone out there still saying the Royals might miss the playoffs should be laughed at. Seriously, just laugh at them. Don’t argue with them, they can’t see the reality in front of their eyes. (That’s a real “do as I say, not as I do” statement…) And definitely don’t let them raise your blood pressure. Why get worked up? Your favorite team is making the playoffs for the first time in nine years! Enjoy this final month of baseball as much as you can, don’t let the losses get you down too much, and pray that Salvador Perez has retained enough of the Royals’ devilish magic to wreak havoc again in the playoffs.
**So far I’m 31-5 on my predictions, so I’m in pretty good shape.
