The next tropical threat is brewing in the Caribbean, facing the Gulf of Mexico

MIAMI – The Southeast is still reeling from the deadly force of Hurricane Helene, but attention must soon turn back to the Caribbean as the next tropical act begins to brew and the likelihood of another tropical system developing within the next week , steadily increasing.

Forecast models suggest a new low pressure area will form over the western Caribbean by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

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The low could then find favorable environmental conditions for development as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico around the middle of next week, where it could develop into a tropical depression, the NHC said.

The Central American Gyre – which was instrumental in the creation of Hurricane Helene – is expected to redevelop, but with some important differences.

“The CAG is nowhere near as strong in the computer forecasts this time as it was before Helene formed,” said Bryan Norcross, weather hurricane specialist at FOX. “And the upper air pattern is completely different.”

It’s too early to say where and how strong the system will become in the following days, but so far the NHC estimates a medium chance that it will develop into at least a tropical depression within the next seven days. However, these odds increased from 30% to 50% just in the last day.

“The atmospheric pattern appears to be reasonably favorable for a tropical system to form and then move from the western Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico later this week,” Norcross said. “The same caveats we discussed last week are still important. All forecasts for undeveloped or developing systems are subject to change and major errors. Don’t focus on specific predictions at this point.”

Another area to watch in the Atlantic is Invest 90L

Similar to the nascent Caribbean storm, another low pressure area is also experiencing favorable conditions for gradual development. Only this one is far out in the Atlantic.

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The NHC said there is a high probability that this storm will develop in the wake of Tropical Storm Joyce. The storm is now designated Invest 90L, meaning the NHC can now run a range of forecast models for the developing cyclone. A new tropical depression could form next week, bringing with it a high chance of development over the next seven days. If this is the next storm to reach tropical storm status, it would be named Kirk.

These two areas of nascent tropical development join two storms that have already achieved at least tropical storm status in the Atlantic and have been named the 9th and 10th on the 2024 tropical cyclone naming list.

Isaac has even become a Category 2 hurricane as it swirls across the North Atlantic. Tropical Storm Joyce is located about 800 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands but is turning north and is expected to gradually weaken.

None of the storms pose a threat to the country.