The fantasy football numbers lie: Expect more good times from Diontae Johnson in Week 4

A simple look at the score or an examination of fantasy football categories doesn’t always reveal a player’s full performance. Dalton Del Don tries to identify misleading numbers that are worth looking into.

Yes… The numbers lie.

Diontae Johnson’s 13 catches are a lie

Johnson led all wide receivers in expected fantasy points in his first start alongside Andy Dalton. He posted a whopping 37.8% target share after hitting 21.8% with Bryce Young clearly holding back Dave Canales’ offense. Johnson also recorded a first read target rate of 44.8% and an aDOT of 10.2 and finished with a career-high 122 receiving yards – his first 100-yard game since Week 13, 2021. He would have finished on Nearly scored two more touchdowns Sunday, tying the league lead in end zone targets.

Dalton had 29 catchable goals in Week 3 after Young totaled 38 goals in the first two games of the season. Johnson is an elite separator and will see even more targets with Adam Thielen on IR. Throw Johnson’s stats out the window with Young (and Kenny Pickett, too), as his fantasy value has improved dramatically with Carolina’s quarterback change.

Johnson has a history of seeing a big improvement in performance when his QB isn’t under pressure, so the Bengals look like a good matchup this week.

Rome Odunze’s 8.8 fantasy points per game is a lie

The volume helped Odunze break through last week, and Keenan Allen is expected to return in Week 4. Still, Odunze clearly has the potential to continue putting together larger fantasy productions. He looked like Chicago’s No. 1 WR last week when he ran 98% of routes and saw 49% of flyers. He led the league in air yards and could have had an even bigger game if Caleb Williams hadn’t missed him several times offensively downfield.

Otherwise, Williams showed real improvement last week, and the Bears are only averaging 3.0 YPC this season despite facing the Colts last week. Chicago might be forced to throw more than they planned with their rookie QB. Odunze got off to a slow start returning from an MCL sprain, but he bounced off the scene last week.

Odunze will have to overcome shaky coaching, a rookie quarterback and the return of Allen, but he’s a real candidate and could already be Williams’ favorite target. Odunze has the sixth-most air yards (fifth-most unrealized) this year and gets a very favorable matchup this week. The Rams have allowed the second-most fantasy points and the most separations to wide receivers this season.

Odunze wasn’t a top-40 fantasy WR entering the year, but behind that is a wideout with a ton of upside moving forward.

Josh Jacobs’ zero rushing touchdowns are a lie

Jacobs has yet to reach the end zone this season despite having the sixth-most red zone rushes and third-most carries inside the five on offense with the seventh-most points in the league. He lost a fumble just before reaching pay dirt in a big Week 2 appearance. Jacobs has bounced back this season and is above expectations in the top 15 in rush yards, so a regression to the red zone is imminent.

Emanuel Wilson is a good player who will continue to get touches, but last week’s near-even split was misleading. Jacobs was limited in all practices until Sunday due to a back injury and held a 12-5 lead well into the third quarter before giving up work in a one-sided game.

Jacobs returned to a full practice this week and remains Green Bay’s RB1. He’s already had plenty of success at the goal line, averaging 11 rushing TDs in 2020-2022. Matt LaFleur is the early favorite for Coach of the Year, with the Packers somehow averaging the second-most yards per play (6.4) with Malik Willis starting twice. The eventual return of Jordan Love will make Green Bay even better, and Jacobs could be there while the quarterback plays through a knee injury.

Jacobs has a tough game against the Vikings this week, but touchdowns are coming.

Courtland Sutton’s zero TD catches are a lie

Sutton is tied for the league lead in red zone targets (six) and end zone targets (five). He is the WR59 in fantasy rating, but he is the WR11 in expected fantasy points. Sutton’s TD rate was expected to decline in 2024 after he scored 10 points on just 59 catches last season, but he has turned the other way this season and deserves better.

The main issue has been the quarterback, as Sutton ranks eighth in goals scored (27) but 32nd in catchable targets (12). Bo Nix will continue to hold Sutton back, but the rookie looked much better last week. He showed more willingness to throw downfield and almost scored on Sutton. Denver is lacking secondary weapons, so the targets should still be there in a Sean Payton offense with the fifth-highest passing rate above expectations. Sutton just needs more improvement from Nix.

Sutton faces an extremely tough matchup this week against a Jets secondary that allows the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers, but he will start scoring touchdowns soon.