For the past few seasons, a theory about the Southern California rival has persisted among some people within the Dodgers organization, one that emerged two Octobers ago and took shape this year in a closely contested division race.
When the Dodgers play the San Diego Padres, they typically seem to get the Padres’ best.
And when the rivalry increases, the intensity tends to be highest for the Padres.
This was certainly true in the 2022 playoffs, when the Padres, as underdogs in the National League Division Series, cruised to a four-game victory over the all-powerful 111-win Dodgers.
Last year, this was more subtle, as the Dodgers had to fight hard to win some close rivalry games despite being well ahead of the Padres in the standings.
And this has been undeniably clear so far this season: The Padres have won seven of ten head-to-head duels and have reduced the Dodgers’ division lead from nine games to just three games as we head into the final week of the season.
“So far they have done what they want with us,” manager Dave Roberts said on Sunday.
So ahead of a crucial three-game series against the Padres this week at Dodger Stadium, which begins Tuesday night, Roberts not only highlighted the momentum but also asked his team to respond to it.
“I think it’s pretty easy to see that when we played them 10 times this year, they came out with more intensity than we did,” Roberts said. “And that has to change. I expect it to change. Playing against these guys – in certainly very, very meaningful games – is going to bring out the best in us.”
At least that is what Roberts can hope for.
“Significant” might be an understatement given what is at stake this week.
If the Dodgers win the series, they will clinch their third consecutive NL West title and eleventh in the last twelve years, and most likely secure an all-important first-round bye.
With a win in one of the three games, the Dodgers would still have their fate in their own hands on the last weekend of the season – but they still have a lot of work to do before the final series against the Colorado Rockies, as they have a magic number of two.
And if the Dodgers get swept by the Padres, they’d suddenly be on the defensive: While they’re technically tied with the division leader with three games to go, they know they’ve lost every tiebreaker for the division title at the end of the season because San Diego already has the edge in the head-to-head matchup (they’ve done that against the Dodgers for the first time since 2010).
“Obviously they’re ready to play us and they’ve played well,” Roberts said of the Padres earlier this season.
And how can the Dodgers fight this week?
“Our motto is simply: stay on the attack,” Roberts said. “We’re not chasing anyone. And you can’t go into a cautious defensive mode.”
For Roberts, that mentality has not always been evident in the Dodgers’ encounters with the Padres so far this season.
After beating San Diego 5-2 on the opening day of an international match in Seoul, South Korea, the Dodgers lost the second leg of the series with a sloppy 15-11 loss marred by Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s disastrous MLB debut.
A few weeks later, the Padres came to Los Angeles and won only their third series at Chavez Ravine in the last five years.
Two subsequent visits to San Diego did not go much better for the Dodgers. They lost a series and kept a clean sheet at Petco Park in May, but then won two games in late July.
“I think the chasing pack always has a little extra incentive, so I think that’s part of it,” Roberts said of the difference in intensity he has sometimes observed between the clubs. “But if the talent is the same, there’s no reason why our fight, intensity and focus shouldn’t match or exceed theirs.”
While the Dodgers haven’t pitched particularly well against the Padres (they have a team ERA of 4.62 against San Diego this season), the club’s biggest problem in this year’s rivalry is hitting.
The Dodgers’ OPS of .602 against Padres pitchers is their lowest against any team this season. And on several occasions this year, Roberts and others have pointed out that the Padres are not intimidated by the Dodgers’ star lineup, but are familiar enough with them to know how to avoid danger and collect outs.
“We have to be proactive and keep attacking,” Roberts said Sunday afternoon of the team’s overall attitude heading into the season’s home stretch. “So that’s kind of my message.”
The fact that this week’s series matters at all to the standings is a testament to San Diego’s second-half resurgence, which saw it post the best record in baseball (40-17) since the All-Star break.
So the pressure is now on for the Dodgers to fend them off and avoid the additional complications that would come with losing the division title and taking a long road through the playoffs – especially for a team that is already short on pitchers.
“It’s going to be fun and it’s going to take a lot of energy,” said outfielder Mookie Betts. “I’m sure there’s going to be a lot of emotions and stuff. These are the games we dream about.”
And those that could lead to a nightmare scenario in the event of defeat.
“The guys are playing great,” Roberts said. “But … I think we can continue to play aggressively and try to win a series.”
