The complete playoff situation of the Detroit Tigers with 5 games remaining

DETROIT – Tuesday was another great day for the Detroit Tigers, who moved even closer to their goal of securing a playoff spot.

Here’s a look at the complete playoff situation with just five games left in the regular season.

Minnesota Twins

The most important team the Tigers have to keep an eye on remains the Minnesota Twins.

With the Tigers’ win over the Rays on Tuesday afternoon and the Twins’ subsequent loss to the Marlins, the Tigers’ lead over the Twins has grown to two full games.

That means Detroit’s magic number is down to four. In other words, any combination of Tigers wins and Twins losses that totals four would officially put the Tigers in the playoffs.

I’m sure you know this by now, but the Tigers don’t have the tiebreaker against the Twins, so the magic number isn’t three. The Tigers have lost seven of 13 head-to-head meetings with Minnesota.

The Twins have lost three games in a row and are 11-22 since mid-August. Their series with the Marlins continues Wednesday night in Minneapolis and they finish it with three wins over the Orioles.

Seattle Mariners

The other team chasing the Tigers is Seattle, but their playoff hopes are kept alive.

The Mariners lost to the Astros on Tuesday night, putting them 2.5 games behind the Tigers, and Seattle has just four games left (Thursday is a no-game day).

Detroit won five of six head-to-head matches, so even a draw would not be enough for Seattle to make the playoffs.

The Tigers would win a three-way tie against the Mariners and Royals, but lose a three-way tie against the Mariners and Twins.

Kansas City Royals

Washington held Kansas City to zero runs for nine innings on Tuesday night, but it still wasn’t enough to win.

The Royals scored the only run of the game in the 10th inning to secure a much-needed win.

Detroit and Kansas City are tied at 83-74, meaning the Royals currently hold the second wild card spot after winning the head-to-head matchup 7-6.

The difference between the second and third wild card spots is simple: The second wild card team (probably) plays in Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs, while the third plays in Houston.

Kansas City, however, has a much tougher road ahead. While the Tigers host the historically bad White Sox for three games to end the season, the Royals must travel to Atlanta to face a Braves team fighting for a wild card spot of their own.

Baltimore Orioles

I have to at least mention the very, very remote possibility that the Tigers could host a wild-card series at Comerica Park.

To do so, they would have to overtake both the Royals and Orioles and secure the first wild-card spot, but that’s extremely unlikely after the Orioles beat the Yankees on Tuesday night.

Baltimore is four games ahead of the Tigers with five games remaining, but the Tigers have the advantage in a head-to-head comparison.

Detroit will have to make up four games in five days to play first-round playoff baseball at Comerica Park.

Here are the two scenarios that would give the Tigers the first wildcard spot:

1. The Tigers finish the season 5-0, the Orioles 1-4 or 0-5, and the Royals lose at least once.

2. The Tigers finish the season 4-1, the Orioles 0-5, and the Royals lose at least twice.

Baltimore plays all five remaining games on the road — two against the Yankees and three against the Twins. It’s ironic that if the Tigers play well against Tampa Bay the next two days, they could actually be rooting for the Twins this weekend.

If the Tigers clinch the first wild-card spot, they are guaranteed to host the Orioles in the first round. The Orioles have already clinched a playoff spot and have the tiebreaker over the Royals.

The only way for the Royals to finish ahead of the Orioles is to go 5-0 while the Orioles finish 0-5. In that scenario, the Royals would get the fourth wild card spot.

Boston Red Sox

For the sake of thoroughness, we will briefly discuss the Red Sox.

Boston has won four games in a row to remain in the wild card race, but there is still a 3.5-game gap between the Red Sox and the Tigers.

Since the Tigers won the season series against the Red Sox, Boston can only overtake Detroit if it finishes 4-0 while the Tigers are 0-5. That would put the Red Sox at 84-78 and the Tigers at 83-79.

There are also those unlikely tiebreaker situations that could cause confusion.

If the Tigers, Royals, and Red Sox all finished tied, the Red Sox would win the tiebreaker based on their 4-2 record against the Royals. The Tigers would be out.

If the Tigers, Twins and Red Sox all finish tied, the Twins would win the tiebreaker. The Tigers could only advance if they all finish ahead of the Royals, which would make the Twins the second wild-card team and the Tigers the third.

If the Tigers, Royals, Twins and Red Sox all finish tied, the Twins win the tiebreaker. The Tigers would be out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Don’t underestimate the Rays’ chance to be a spoiler. But you definitely can underestimate their playoff chances.

Tampa Bay came to Detroit on a four-game winning streak, winning recent series against the Red Sox and Orioles while drawing a tie with the Twins and Guardians.

But as of Wednesday morning, the Rays are five games behind the Tigers and Royals, with five games left to play.

Even if the Rays win the next two games in Detroit, the Tigers would have to be swept by the White Sox to have any chance of a tiebreaker.

The Rays and Red Sox end the season with a three-game series at Fenway Park.

New York Yankees

OK, technically the Tigers could also play against the Yankees in the wildcard round of the playoffs.

The Orioles are five games behind the Yankees in the AL East standings, but Baltimore secured the decisive victory with its win on Tuesday night.

So if Baltimore wins its final five games and the Yankees lose all five (two to the Orioles and three to the Pirates), the Orioles would win the East and the Yankees would be guaranteed the first wild card spot.

What has already been decided

The Astros have won the AL West Division and are firmly in third place in the American League. They are five games ahead of the Mariners with four games remaining. They are too far behind the other division winners to catch them and secure a first-round bye (regardless of who wins the East Division).

Cleveland is currently one game behind the Yankees in the race for first place in the AL, but either way the Guardians are assured of a bye.

In the National League, we already know that the Phillies won the Eastern League and the Brewers won the Central League. The Dodgers and Padres will battle it out for the NL West crown, with the loser getting a wildcard spot.

Three teams are still battling for two wild card spots: the Diamondbacks, Mets and Braves. Currently, the Mets and Diamondbacks are tied at 87-70, while the Braves are one game behind at 86-71.

Conclusion

The Tigers are in a really good position. But the work is not quite finished yet.

This is how I would rank the possible remaining outcomes in order of probability.

1. The Tigers get the second wildcard spot and play in Baltimore.

2. The Tigers get the third wildcard spot and play in Houston.

3. Tigers miss the playoffs.

4. The Tigers receive the first wildcard spot and host the Orioles.

5. The Tigers get the second wildcard spot and play in Kansas City.

6. The Tigers get the second wildcard spot and play against the Yankees in New York.

Wednesday’s game against the Rays is the toughest test remaining on the schedule. Zack Littell is Tampa Bay’s best pitcher and has performed excellently over the past two months.

The Tigers will counter with Keider Montero, who was inconsistent in his rookie season.

However, if the Tigers can win either of their final two games against the Rays, it would be a huge step toward a playoff spot.

The White Sox are the worst team in MLB history and while they won’t give up without a fight, the Tigers have a good chance of winning these games.

We’ve said it a hundred times in the last month, but it’s worth repeating: I can’t believe the Tigers are even in this conversation. It’s a testament to this pitching staff, the young hitters and AJ Hinch that they found a way to rebound after the transfer deadline.

Now we will see if they can do it.