The Caribbean system could mean heavy rainfall for the Florida peninsula

South and central Florida is expected to receive 3 inches or more of precipitation between Sunday and Tuesday

Ryan Truchelut
| WeatherTiger

A quick overview of the potential for tropical developments in the Gulf of Mexico, which is a constant source of concern for me, as have the constant messages from my watch for the past two weeks telling me that I’m stressed.

The 30,000-foot view suggests a widespread low pressure area is likely to develop in the Gulf over the weekend, which may or may not become a named tropical system.

Regardless of the naming rights, this low will bring heavy rain to the Florida peninsula and possibly elsewhere starting Sunday or into next week.

The National Hurricane Center continues to estimate that a widespread area of convection and low pressure stretching from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the northwestern Caribbean Sea has a 40% chance of development between Friday and next Wednesday.

The past day saw an increase in the intensity, but not organization, of thunderstorm activity associated with the next round of Central American Gyre (CAG) activity.

As of Wednesday morning, there are two main areas of convection, one in the Bay of Campeche and the other in southern Cuba. Water vapor images show abundant moisture in the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean, as well as increasingly favorable winds at upper elevations with a much drier air mass in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

➤ Track all active storms

➤ Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

Because there are two pockets of rotation in the area, tropical development is not imminent and it will take at least several days for the pieces to consolidate into a single disturbance.

Both areas are expected to move north into the general vicinity of the south-central Gulf by the weekend, at which point they may merge into a single, broad distribution area.

Is a hurricane coming to Florida? Not likely

The resulting area of low pressure is expected to be large, but due to increasing shear there is unlikely to be an intense core.

Rather, a large area of precipitation is likely to spread east and northeast of the low’s broad center. This precipitation will likely reach the immediate northern Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula by late weekend.

Given the significant wind shear over the Gulf, nearby dry air to the west, and the likely formation of multiple fronts in its vicinity, it is unclear whether the resulting disturbance actually meets the definition of a tropical cyclone or is more of a hybrid or low-frontal form.

That makes a difference to whether the system ever gets a name, but it doesn’t make much of a difference to the potential impact of the system.

What impacts can Florida expect from the system moving to the Gulf of Mexico?

Exactly how quickly the low will move east-northeast across the eastern Gulf before a break in the jet stream early next week remains to be determined, but south and central Florida is expected to see 3 inches or more of rain between Sunday and Tuesday , with the possibility of widespread higher totals if the storm continues into midweek or beyond.

Again, while something Since a hurricane is likely to form over the Gulf by the weekend, it is unlikely to be a dense, well-organized hurricane and may not technically be a tropical storm or depression.

However, the label, or lack of a label, doesn’t mean there won’t be an impact: Tropical or not, central and southern Florida are likely to experience heavy rains. That certainly doesn’t help recovery efforts along Florida’s Gulf Coast, nor does the threat of gusty winds or rough seas early next week.

Further north, the fact that the jet stream is likely trending west-east across the southeastern U.S. means that tropical moisture from this system is unlikely to be drawn into northern Georgia or the Carolinas, where fortunately little rain is expected over the next 10 days .

Depending on the structure of the low and where it forms, northern Florida may or may not see significant precipitation, but over the Panhandle the rain is unlikely to last as long as it does across peninsular Florida.

I know it’s stress-inducing to have tropical liver pain, short of jaundice, over the Gulf, but we should have a better answer to how this rainmaker might play out in a few days.

In the meantime, Florida should prepare for a potentially widespread heavy rain event next week. I’ll be back in a few days to discuss more forecast details for the weekend. Keep watching the sky.

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company that provides forensic meteorological expert services as well as agricultural and hurricane forecast subscription services. Visit Weathertiger.com for more information. Email Truchelut at [email protected].

The Caribbean system could mean heavy rainfall for the Florida peninsula

ByJasper

South and central Florida is expected to receive 3 inches or more of precipitation between Sunday and Tuesday

Is a hurricane coming to Florida? Not likely

What impacts can Florida expect from the system moving to the Gulf of Mexico?

By Jasper

Related Post

Houston at TCU odds, college football Week 6 betting prediction

“Ghost” series finale and spin-off rumors

Company behind Florida’s marijuana legalization ballot measure is suing the state’s Republican Party over “false and misleading” claims to voters

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

You missed

Houston at TCU odds, college football Week 6 betting prediction

“Ghost” series finale and spin-off rumors

Company behind Florida’s marijuana legalization ballot measure is suing the state’s Republican Party over “false and misleading” claims to voters

Savannah Bananas announce 2025 tour stop in New York. How to get tickets