The big showdown, Kentucky’s surprise and more

Another week of SEC football brought some predictable moments and some significant surprises. Yes, Alabama and Georgia both looked like top-5 (top-2?) programs nationally. Oklahoma showed some fireworks late in the game, and it’s unclear whether Week 5 showed more how good Kentucky’s defense is or how overrated Ole Miss was due to its poor first four games.

But this is where the SEC team is expected to hold its own in its final regular-season numbers.

Texas: 11-1 (5-0, defeated Mississippi State 35-13)

The only reason for concern for Texas is that they haven’t performed exceptionally well against anyone. Michigan is more or less okay, but it’s definitely limited offensively. But then again, with the exception of Georgia, there isn’t a ton of meat on the Texas list. Oklahoma, Florida and Kentucky are not teams to lose much sleep over. It’s very likely the Horns will finish 11-1…12-0 might be more likely than 10-2.

Missouri: 10-2 (4-0, out this week)

It’s not necessarily that the Tigers are that good. They had a relatively leisurely schedule, avoiding Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. Road games at Texas A&M and South Carolina could be challenging, but this could reasonably be an 11-1 team.

Tennessee: 10-2 (4-0, out this week)

Alabama and Georgia are still lurking. It’s hard to even pick the Vols to beat any of their rivals. However, everyone else on UT’s schedule appears to be fair game. A trip to Arkansas or a home game against Kentucky aren’t exactly daunting challenges.

Ole Miss: 9-3 (4-1, lost to Kentucky 20-17)

The Rebels’ offense stalled against the first good defense. The Rebels travel to South Carolina and LSU in the next two weeks. It wouldn’t be shocking if they lost 1. Oklahoma and Georgia remain on the schedule, as do trips to Arkansas and Florida. The playoffs are probably slipping away in a hurry.

LSU: 9-3 (4-1, defeated South Alabama 42-10)

The Tigers continue to appear to be one of the SEC’s top-tier teams. Their Oct. 12 game against Ole Miss is someone’s de facto CFP elimination game. With Alabama and some difficult road trips also ahead, the forecast is 9-3.

Texas A&M: 8-4 (4-1, defeated Arkansas 21-17)

Marcel Reed managed to win a challenging SEC game. Neither Georgia nor Alabama are on the back end of the schedule, but next week’s game against Missouri could be a surprise or a humiliation for the Aggies. Win and we’re talking 9-3. Lost and 7-5 could be more realistic.

Kentucky: 8-4 (3-2, defeated Ole Miss 20-17)

So perhaps the Wildcats’ demise was a little premature. At this point, the path to a bowl is via FCS Murray State, Vandy and then another win. Auburn could hand the ball off to Kentucky’s defense 10 times, and the Wildcats have had Florida’s number in recent years. This gives Louisville its eighth win (because Tennessee and Texas seem like a terribly difficult task for a team so limited offensively).

Oklahoma: 6-6 (4-1, defeated Auburn 27-21)

Bold, bold win for the Sooners. On the road, OU trailed 21-10 early in the fourth quarter before rallying to win. The Sooners still have three games left to play against Texas and Ole Miss after the upcoming off week. Otherwise, a November 2nd game against Maine and a home game against South Carolina on October 19th appear to be the most likely wins. After that, OU could lose the rest of a challenging roster.

South Carolina: 6-6 (3-1, out)

Things are starting to get difficult for the Gamecocks. The Ole Miss Rebels come to town next week and then USC has to play Alabama and Oklahoma. Wofford and Vandy look like victories, and we’re predicting a sixth win, but it’s hard to ask for more until LaNorris Sellers is back in the middle. .

Arkansas: 5-7 (3-2, lost to Texas A&M 21-17)

This was a tough loss and could end up being the one that keeps the Hogs out of a bowl game. Looking ahead, Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State are the only likely wins. The sixth win depends on beating Ole Miss or LSU at home or winning at Mizzou. At the moment that seems unlikely.

Auburn: 5-7 (2-3, lost to Oklahoma 27-21)

It’s hard for Auburn to get to a bowl now. ULM and Vanderbilt seem like likely wins, but things get close quickly after that. Georgia and Bama both seem out of reach and road games against Mizzou and Kentucky look challenging. Texas A&M at home might have the best chance with even five wins. We got the Tigers to win one of those games, but not two.

Florida: 5-7 (2-2, off this week)

The next 3 are huge. UCF looks very winnable and the game against Kentucky becomes a must-win (but also a big challenge). Florida State is terrible at the end of the season, but even then Florida has to deal with Kentucky and upset someone good (LSU? Ole Miss?) to get to 6 wins.

Vanderbilt: 3-9 (2-2, off this week)

Ball State is the only possible win remaining. Vandy’s best chance for SEC success likely lies on the road (Kentucky? Auburn?), with home games remaining against Bama, Texas and Tennessee.

Mississippi State: 2-10 (1-4, lost to Texas 35-13)

Losing Blake Shapen doesn’t make things feel better. State will beat UMass, but things get tough from there. The Oct. 26 home game against Arkansas is the best shot, but not a great shot.