Should Christian McCaffrey continue to be number 1 despite his thigh injury?
Fantasy footballers explain who else has the potential to be number 1 overall in fantasy drafts.
Sport in Seriousness
Fantasy football leagues are won by players who outperform their draft positions, and these insider picks offer a return on investment that can overcome potential pitfalls on your team due to injuries or other issues.
In 2023, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua likely won many fantasy football leagues after entering the season as the WR101 (101st wide receiver drafted on average) according to FantasyPros. He finished the season as one of the top five wide receivers in all formats. Detroit Lions wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown was the WR10 before the season and finished the year as the No. 3 wide receiver in fantasy football.
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Dark horses like Nacua don’t come around often, but ones like St. Brown can make the difference between a championship and summer penalties for last place. Here are two players at each position who could surpass their current average draft position (ADP) and positional ranking, according to aggregate data from FantasyPros:
Insider tips for fantasy football 2024: Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (ADP 140, QB20)
- Statistics for 2023: 326 of 521 passes, 3,965 yards, 24 touchdowns, 11 interceptions | 254.3 fantasy points
Stafford managed to finish as QB15 last year despite missing two games and wide receiver Cooper Kupp being in. It’s hard to imagine him taking a step back with Kupp returning and the offensive line improving, especially on the interior.
Los Angeles lost defensive coordinator Raheem Morris and the Rams defense could take a step back in 2024. That would put Los Angeles in high-scoring games. Stafford’s ADP puts him behind players like Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence and Kirk Cousins. With Sean McVay still out of action, Stafford is a solid choice as a QB2 or low-end QB1 if you prioritize your resources elsewhere.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (ADP 171, QB25)
- Statistics for 2023: 149 of 255 passes, 1,808 yards, eight touchdowns, four interceptions | 106.1 fantasy points
Levis is a dual-threat quarterback who enters his first full season as a starter with reinforcements at wide receiver and a new playmaker in head coach Brian Callahan, who has a winning record from his time in Cincinnati. Callahan also brought with him his father, Bill, who is one of the best offensive line coaches in the league.
Levis is currently behind Geno Smith and Bo Nix according to ADP. You don’t have to look far to see that he can at least surpass that position as QB2.
Insider tips for Fantasy Football 2024: Running back
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 149, RB44)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 361 yards rushing, two touchdowns; 17 receptions, 144 yards receiving, two touchdowns | 91.5 fantasy points
Ezekiel Elliott is back in Dallas, but has four years and 896 carries under his belt since his last Pro Bowl season with the Cowboys in 2019. In 2023, he reached career lows in yards from scrimmage (955) and touchdowns (five).
Dowdle split time in the Cowboys’ backfield last year with Tony Pollard, who is now in Tennessee. The Cowboys’ offense could take a step back in 2024 — especially if CeeDee Lamb’s contract situation worsens — but Dowdle should have plenty of opportunity to perform better than RB44 as a more explosive option than Elliott.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 73, RB24)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 1,035 yards rushing, eight touchdowns, one lost fumble; 29 receptions, 170 yards | 195.5 fantasy points
Pittsburgh hired Arthur Smith as its new offensive coordinator for 2024. Smith’s reputation as a strong running player and Pittsburgh’s improvements to the offensive line in the 2024 NFL Draft make Harris and his Steelers colleague Jaylen Warren popular underdogs this season.
Warren was a more efficient runner last season, but Harris may be the better dark horse for one simple reason: his size. At 6’1″ and 230 pounds, he’s one of the bigger running backs in the league, while Warren is 5’8″ and 215 pounds. Smith has shown a preference for bigger running backs at his previous stops in Tennessee (Derrick Henry) and Atlanta (Tyler Allgeier). That could give Harris an edge over Warren.
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Insider tips for fantasy football 2024: Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (ADP 88, WR37)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 51 receptions, 717 yards, five touchdowns | 152.7 fantasy points
Johnson was traded to Carolina in the offseason as the Panthers build their team around second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Last season, 33-year-old Adam Thielen led the team with 103 catches, 1,014 yards and four touchdowns. Johnson is a big improvement over Thielen at this point in her career.
Improvements on the offensive line and a new play caller should improve things for Young, and Johnson appears to be the clear No. 1 target in the passing game. He will be drafted alongside players like Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins. None of those players are the No. 1 target on their team.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (ADP 101, WR44)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 63 receptions, 628 yards, four touchdowns | 149.8 fantasy points
A regime change in Seattle could benefit Smith-Njigba. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb comes from the Washington Huskies, where he put together exciting three-receiver sets with NFL draftees like Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. That could bode well for the Seahawks’ receiver trio: Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
Smith-Njigba could thrive on more under and intermediate routes and play a bigger role as Lockett ages. He was overrated in 2023 but could be a worthwhile dark horse in 2024.
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Insider tips for Fantasy Football 2024: Tight End
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys (ADP 82, TE10)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 71 receptions, 761 yards, five touchdowns | 177.1 fantasy points
Ferguson finished the 2023 season as a TE9, as he scored four of his five touchdowns in Weeks 8-13. He became the second option in the Cowboys’ passing game, and there’s no reason why that should change in 2024. If anything, his role could get even bigger in 2024 given Lamb’s contract issues. It’s hard to find valuable players at a thin tight end position in fantasy football, but if you miss out on the big names, Ferguson is a lower-end TE1 and a great consolation prize.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP 105, TE12)
- Statistics for 2023 (full PPR): 59 receptions, 592 yards, three touchdowns | 136.3 fantasy points
Goedert will have a new offensive coordinator this season in Kellen Moore. The last time Moore had a comparable group of pass catchers to what Philadelphia has in 2024 was in 2021 in Dallas with Lamb, Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz. That season, Lamb, Schultz and Cooper had a very even split of targets (104-120) and catches (68-79).
Goedert, DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown are a relatively similar trio talent-wise to the Cowboys’ this season. Philadelphia’s offense prioritized Brown in 2023 with 158 targets and 106 receptions. Those could drop if Goedert gets a bigger share. It may be a bit of an exaggeration, but tight end is a thin, top-heavy position in fantasy.
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Insider tips for Fantasy Football 2024: D/ST
Chicago Bears (D/ST 11)
- Statistics for 2023: 30 sacks, 22 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, two touchdowns | 120 fantasy points
The Bears’ defense played well in the second half of 2023, with most of their starters returning. The defensive backfield may be the best part of this unit, with Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Jaquan Brisker. The defense’s performance is difficult to predict from year to year, but thanks to an influx of talent on offense for 2024, they’ll likely play from behind less often.
Houston Texans (D/ST 13)
- Statistics for 2023: 46 sacks, 14 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, three touchdowns | 131 fantasy points
Houston enters its second year under head coach DeMeco Ryans, who coordinated the NFL’s best defense in 2022. A second year in his system, the signing of Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair, and a development year from Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. should make Houston a top-10 defense in 2024. Their schedule is tough, but the potential is there.
