The NFL has decided not to slowly ease anyone into the regular season.
The best possible matchup for the traditional Thursday night season opener featuring the defending Super Bowl champions would have been a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Rather than saving this rematch of the AFC Championship Game for later in the season, the NFL has scheduled it for opening night. Here we go.
Here’s a look at Week 1’s betting angles, with all the spreads and odds from BetMGM.
Thursday night: Lamar Jackson is great as an underdog
This number probably says more about Jackson’s great career than any other: The Baltimore Ravens have been underdogs 14 times with Jackson at quarterback and have a 12-2 record against the spread, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.
Despite that history, this is a pretty tough position for Baltimore to start the season in. The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won a Super Bowl last season, beating the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, and on paper they look even better this season. The Ravens are currently working on their new defensive coordinator, Zach Orr, after Mike Macdonald took over as head coach with the Seattle Seahawks, and it’s a tough task to figure out Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in their first game.
Surprising lineup of the first week: Steelers at Falcons
We all know Mike Tomlin doesn’t have losing seasons. Got it. But the Steelers offense had a pretty bad preseason. And during the preseason, they also tried to figure out their quarterback situation and a new scheme with coordinator Arthur Smith. They just looked bad. And yet they’re only 3-point favorites at the Atlanta Falcons.
If you think the Falcons’ new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, might be rusty because he’s coming off a torn Achilles and hasn’t played at all in the preseason, that’s reasonable. It’s just surprising to see a much-improved Falcons team only need to score one field goal at home.
The audience’s MVP tip: CJ Stroud
The most tickets for a player in the NFL MVP market at BetMGM are on Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud. In this market, 12.1% of bets are on Stroud, who is at 11/1 odds at BetMGM. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever by a quarterback, and many people expect him to improve.
Anthony Richardson was also a rookie last season, but the Indianapolis Colts quarterback played only a few games due to injury. When he did play, it was great. Richardson is healthy as the Colts begin the season at home against the Texans, and Indianapolis is a 3-point underdog. The Texans were the most exciting team of the offseason, but don’t forget how close the Colts were to beating them in the battle for the division title as Gardner Minshew II started at quarterback for most of the season.
The team most bet on to make the playoffs hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2015 season, went 8-9 last season, and starts a rookie quarterback who was the sixth-round QB in his class. The Broncos are the most popular playoff pick among BetMGM bettors. Of all the bets on whether or not the Broncos will make the playoffs, 97% are on Denver making the playoffs. The Broncos are +450 odds to make the playoffs.
In addition, bettors are hoping for over 5.5 wins for the Broncos.
Bo Nix has looked good in the preseason, but this is the preseason. We’ll see if he can repeat that against the Seahawks starting in Week 1. The Seattle crowd is loud and new Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald is a master of defense. Seattle is a 6-point favorite.
Prop of the Week: Tony Pollard Receiving Yards
We didn’t see much of the Tennessee Titans’ new offense in the preseason, but we got a taste of it. And we saw how their defenders caught the ball.
New Titans coach Brian Callahan will reshape the Titans’ offense. Pollard played just 19 snaps in the preseason and caught four passes for 38 yards. Callahan didn’t show everything, but it makes sense that he wanted to use Pollard and backup Tyjae Spears in the passing game. Pollard looked explosive in the preseason after a disappointing season.
For all of these reasons, it was surprising that Pollard’s receiving yardage prop for Tennessee’s Week 1 game at the Chicago Bears was just 10.5 yards. That seems low when you look at what we’ve seen this preseason.
At Yahoo Survival Football, 46% of picks are for the Cincinnati Bengals to beat the New England Patriots. While survival bets are based on laments like “This team looked like a sure bet, how could they lose?”, the Bengals seem to be the safe bet. We think so.
However, not every favorite will win. Which pick could cause the most chaos? The New Orleans Saints are getting 10.2% of picks this week against the Carolina Panthers. These are the mavericks hoping the Patriots pull off a surprise win. But don’t underestimate the Panthers completely. With new coach Dave Canales, the Panthers team is much better. The Panthers are 4-point underdogs against a Saints team that won’t impress anyone this season. Be careful.
Monday night: A fantastic duel between the Jets and the 49ers
How much of a distraction will the 49ers’ contract drama from last month be? We’ll find out. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams got their contracts, but will they be in optimal shape? Maybe, but we won’t know until Monday night.
The 49ers and New York Jets are not having an easy start to the season. They are facing each other with the Jets holding a 4 point lead. The Jets are in good shape but have not been able to show it because they have struggled with terrible quarterback play. This season they are hoping Aaron Rodgers can last more than four plays. If he can do that, the Jets will be very good. Don’t be surprised if they give the 49ers a scare.
