The 2024 college football season is just around the corner, which means it’s time to start looking for the best outright win bets for the upcoming season.
In this series, I’ll look at the outright bets for some attractive teams in each of the four major conferences.
There are many more futures available in our 2024 College Football Futures package.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Big 12.
Best bet: Arizona over 7.5 wins
The loss of the head coach Every fish to Washington was a setback for Arizona after the team had a 9-3 record in the regular season, but Fisch was unable to lure much talent from the Wildcats’ roster.
quarterback Noah Fifita and recipient Tetairoa McMillanarguably the most talented in the Big 12 at their positions, both return.
The Big 12 appears to be one of the strongest conferences in the country this year, but Arizona has most of the bottom teams on its schedule: BYU, Arizona State and Houston.
If we count those three games as wins plus two non-conference wins (Northern Arizona and New Mexico), the Wildcats should only need to go 3-4 against the bulk of their schedule.
Arizona should also be strengthened by some new additions.
Head Coach Brent Brennan the transfer portal hit hard, especially on defense. Arizona could have up to 11 transfer players on the two-deep defensive side of the ball.
Defense was the Wildcats’ weakness in 2023, so Brennan’s attempt at a quick rebuild carries little risk – and if the unit comes together quickly, a much higher ceiling will be set.
Get Ryan McCrystal’s favorite Big 12 win stats in our College Football Futures package!
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Best bet: Utah under 10 wins
Utah achieved a record of 8-4 last season despite the lack of a starting quarterback Cam rises for the entire season. Rising is back, but the schedule will make significant improvements difficult.
Including a bowl loss to Northwestern, Utah finished 2-5 against teams that finished the year with a winning record (the only wins came against USC and UCLA).
This year Utah has six teams on the schedule that rank in the top 50 of ESPN’s Preseason FPI:
- at Oklahoma State
- Arizona
- TCU
- in Colorado
- State of Iowa
- at UCF
To reach the over, Utah must reach a 5-1 mark in those contests while avoiding upsets elsewhere.
Another reason to bet against Utah is the lack of talent added to the roster through transfer portals, especially on the offensive line.
Utah ranked 132nd out of 133 teams in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed in 2023, according to Sports Info Solutions 一, yet the Utes did not make a single addition to their offensive line.
The offensive line’s problems were also evident in the running game, as the Utes ranked 73rd in opponent-adjusted yards before contact.
Kyle WhittinghamThe squad prides itself on its physical play, but that was lacking on offense in 2023.
The line could improve – there are high expectations for the second-grader Spencer Fano 一, but it will take a lot of effort to achieve a 10-2 season.
Best bet: BYU under 4.5 wins
In the extremely competitive Big 12, BYU appears to be one of the few teams that cannot compete for bowl berth.
Jake Retzlaff And Gerry Bohannon are participating in what appears to be one of the worst quarterback competitions in the nation.
BYU went 0-4 in Retzlaff’s four starts last season, while Bohanon led South Florida to a 1-6 record in his final starter appearance in 2022.
The potential for poor quarterback play is heightened by BYU’s faltering offensive line, which ranked 103rd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed in 2023, according to Sports Info Solutions.
The schedule doesn’t help either. BYU has to play the teams with the five best chances to win the conference:
- Utah
- State of Kansas
- State of Oklahoma
- at UCF
- Kansas
To make matters worse, two of the Cougars’ three best-win conference games are on the road at Baylor and Arizona State.
BYU also travels to SMU and Wyoming for two of its non-conference games.
All indications are that BYU will miss a bowl game by a wide margin for the second consecutive year. That hasn’t happened since the Cougars missed three straight games from 2002-04.
