Connecticut and Las Vegas are the two contenders for the WNBA title, and given the recent defensive performance of these two teams, our WNBA expert thinks picking the total under that number is a no-brainer.
As the season draws to a close, playoff spots are on the line, and Sunday’s game between the Connecticut Sun and Las Vegas Aces could have significant postseason implications.
Connecticut is the best defensive team in the WNBA this season and the Aces aren’t far behind. Both teams have won frequently because of their excellent play on that side of the court and my predictions for Sun vs. Aces call for another low-scoring game in Sin City.
My WNBA picks for September 15 explain in detail why you should bet on the under in this clash of WNBA heavyweights.
Predictions for Sun vs. Aces
My best bet
Under 159.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
After two successful player prop bets in my last two articles, I now turn to a straight bet on tonight’s point total. This season, Connecticut has allowed opponents the fewest points per game (73.7) and Las Vegas the sixth-fewest (81.3). However, over the last five games, the Sun are the only team that has held opponents under 70 points (69.0) and Las Vegas has allowed the second-fewest points (72.4).
In their last 10 games, the Aces are 2-8 against the Under and the Sun are 4-6 against the Under. Las Vegas has reached the Under five straight times and Connecticut has reached the Under four of five. Both teams are 16-21-0 against the Under this season and both head-to-head matches have reached the Under this season.
As the season comes to a close, the hunt for the playoffs intensifies. Connecticut is just one game behind the No. 2 Minnesota Lynx, while Las Vegas is one game ahead of the No. 4 Seattle Storm. Teams tend to get hung up this time of year, and scores can be a little lower than usual, even if it isn’t already a matchup between the WNBA’s two best defenses. That point total is a little high here given both teams’ recent play, and if it were set at 153.5 or even 154.5, I’d be tempted to look at the over. At 159.5, I’m going with the under.
Sun vs Aces – Accumulator bet on the same game (SGP)
Below 159.5
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 Threesomes
Aces -4.5
Season-long trends point to the under, but recent trends are screaming it from the rooftops. Las Vegas hasn’t reached the over in five straight games, and Connecticut has only done it once in the last five games. These are the WNBA’s two best defenses over the last five games, and bettors should expect a low-scoring game.
Kelsey Plum is one of the WNBA’s best three-point shooters and has been in top form lately. She’s averaged 3.5 threes in her last six games and has hit the over on that prop five times. This season, she’s sunk it 21 times in 36 appearances, or 58.3% of her games. She’s been even better at home, hitting 12 of 17 (70.5%). She’s hit the over in both of her meetings with Connecticut this season and in seven of her last 12 games against the Sun since 2022.
Las Vegas has come out on top in both head-to-head meetings this season, and the team has come out on top in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including five of the last six. On the season overall, the Aces are 6-0-1 in their last seven meetings. Connecticut has come out on top in three straight games, but those games were against a struggling Mercury team and a down-on-the-luck Sparks team. The Sun will be playing their fourth road game in a week, and a combination of fatigue and a tough opponent has allowed the Aces to erase that modest 4.5-point lead.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sun vs Aces odds
Sun vs Aces Live Odds
Get the latest WNBA odds for Suns vs Aces for tonight.
Opening odds for Sun vs. Aces
- Spread: Las Vegas -4.5 (-110) | Connecticut (-110)
- Money line: Las Vegas -220 | Connecticut +180
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Sun vs Aces spread and over/under analysis
- The Sun have a 7-3 record in their last ten games and have won six of those matches.
- The Aces have an identical record in their last ten games and have also been ahead in six of those encounters.
- Las Vegas is currently five games under expectations and Connecticut has only reached the ceiling once in its last five games.
- Both teams have a 16-21-0 record this season, and Connecticut has the weakest defense in the WNBA.
Trend Sun vs. Aces
The Sun have allowed the fewest points to their opponents since the Olympic break, and the Aces have allowed the fourth-fewest. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Aces here.
Game info for Sun vs Aces
| Location: | Michelob Ultra Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, 15.9.2024 |
| Tip: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSN |
Sun vs Aces: Latest Injuries
Sun: There are no injuries to report.
Aces: Tiffany Mitchell (Aus).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Not intended for use in MA.
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