The Gulf Coast is bracing for the possibility of a major hurricane that could make landfall in three days. It will likely develop into a tropical storm and then possibly hurricane Helen — is organizing itself in the Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center classified a tropical disturbance southwest of the Cayman Islands as a potential tropical cyclone #9 on Monday morning. Although the storm has not officially formed yet, the designation allows meteorologists to issue an official forecast as well as warnings and watches for the system.
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The storm is poorly organized Monday afternoon, with its low-level center currently displaced by the mid-level vortex. The system is expected to become more vertically stacked Tuesday and organize quickly, when it will likely develop into Tropical Storm Helene.
Tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings are in effect for parts of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico as the storm continues to strengthen through mid-week. Those planning to travel to Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Cozumel should check with their airline and consider changing their plans.
Helene is expected to accelerate toward the eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, moving over record-breaking warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico that could act like jet fuel and strengthen the storm.
Brian McNoldy, senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, recently noted: Heat content of the oceans in the Gulf of Mexico is the highest ever recorded. Warm water is a necessary prerequisite for strengthening tropical systems.
Sea surface temperatures in Helene’s path are as high as 89 degrees Fahrenheit – 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. The North Atlantic as a whole has experienced record temperatures in 2024, storing 90% of the excess heat from Climate change produced by Greenhouse gas pollution.
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In addition to record-breaking warm waters caused by climate change, Helene is also expected to pass directly over the Loop Current, an area of exceptionally warm water that travels from the Caribbean up into the eastern Gulf of Mexico before squeezing through the Florida Strait and heading north as the Gulf Stream.
Due to the warm waters and an otherwise favorable environment with high levels of storm-promoting moisture and low levels of storm-damaging wind shear, there is high confidence that Helene will be the third of four landfall islands. Hurricanes in the USA to intensify rapidly so far this year. Rapid intensification The criterion is met when a storm reaches a wind speed of at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours or less.
Official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center expect Helene to reach wind speeds of 80 miles per hour by Thursday, turning the tropical disturbance into a 30 mph powerful category 2 Storm reached 177 km/h at landfall. Some high-resolution computer forecast models indicate an even stronger, major hurricane.
CBS News
Residents of Florida’s west coast are asked not to focus on the centerline of the forecast track, as Hurricane Helene will be a large, fast-moving storm with impacts extending well beyond the center, especially on the east side of the storm. Communities from the Florida Keys to Tampa in the north could be affected by destructive storm surge even if the center of Helene remains farther west.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 41 counties ahead of the storm’s approach.
Due to its shallow waters and coastal shape, Florida’s Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surges caused by hurricanes.
As the storm continues to form and moves closer to the United States, storm surge and hurricane warnings are expected to be issued for much of the Florida coast.
