New tropical threat with high risk for the USA
AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on September 19 to discuss the next tropical threat to the United States.
Although Invest 97L was not yet a named storm as of early Monday morning, meteorologists are warning residents of the northern and eastern Gulf Coast to prepare for the arrival of a hurricane later this week.
According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to study the system this afternoon to help meteorologists with their forecasts and models.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
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It’s too early to determine specific impacts, but the National Weather Service Tallahassee is warning residents to prepare for the potential for significant storm surge, heavy rains, strong winds and dangerous beach and boating conditions along the northern and eastern Gulf Coasts.
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Special note on spaghetti models: The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
Radar images from Invest 97L
Invest 97L: What you need to know
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in conjunction with an extensive low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for the continued development of this system. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where further development is expected.
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Regardless of further developments, this system is expected to cause heavy rainfall across much of Central America over the next few days.
Stakeholders in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the development of this system, as watches or warnings are likely to be required for portions of these areas later this morning.
The system is expected to move primarily northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Stakeholders along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the development of this system.
- Probability of occurrence within 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
- Probability of occurrence within 7 days: high, 90 percent.
When might Tallahassee, Florida, feel the effects of a tropical system?
The time frame for possible impacts appears to be Thursday through Friday, but some impacts could occur as early as late Wednesday evening, according to the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
Since no center has yet formed, there is still great uncertainty. Experts are therefore advising residents of the Gulf Coast to start preparing now.
“Residents should begin checking their hurricane gear to determine what supplies and/or items are needed that need to be replenished,” the National Weather Service said.
Could the effects of a tropical storm or hurricane be felt in Southwest Florida?
“There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the extended range as a tropical system moves northward into the Gulf of Mexico. These discrepancies will have significant implications for exactly what conditions will occur in West Central and SWFL,” said a statement from the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
“There is growing suspicion that a tropical system will move into the Gulf, bringing with it a climate-boosting storm surge, heavy rains and strong winds, as well as poor ocean and beach conditions. The worst of the weather is expected to occur between Wednesday evening and Friday morning.”
Weather radar for Tallahassee, Florida
What tropical impacts are possible from Invest 97L in Florida this week?
“While the exact impacts remain highly uncertain, much of the northern and eastern Gulf should prepare for the possibility of a hurricane that could potentially have significant impacts later this week,” the National Weather Service Tallahassee said.
wind. AccuWeather forecasts that Invest 97L could become a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall later this week, and that it could strengthen into a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). Strong wind gusts of 100-118 mph (160-190 km/h) are expected where the storm makes landfall on Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 140 mph (225 km/h).
Rain. AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting widespread rainfall of 4 to 8 inches throughout the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region through Saturday, with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches possible near the landfall zone. The AccuWeather Local StormMax is 24 inches of rain.
“Heavy rainfall is accompanying this system and the region is somewhat vulnerable to flooding. This vulnerability comes from the heavy rainfall Debby brought throughout the Florida Big Bend in August and a September that has been wetter than normal so far across much of the region.”
➤ Forecast of excessive precipitation
storm surge. “The Tampa Bay region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge. If this storm continues to move west, we could see severe storm surge and flooding in Tampa,” DaSilva said.
“Some of the stronger possibilities of this storm would potentially bring significant storm surge to the Apalachee Bay and/or Panhandle coastal regions,” the National Weather Service Tallahassee said. “The specific impacts and values of storm surge and precipitation are still highly dependent on the track and we will have a better idea of these early values in the next 24 to 36 hours.”
Tornadoes. “There is also a risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama on Thursday.”
Power outages. “There is also a risk of widespread power outages where this storm makes landfall and in the Tallahassee area,” AccuWeather said. “Regional and local power outages are expected throughout the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region, as well as much of Georgia, Alabama, southern Tennessee, and parts of far western South Carolina and North Carolina.”
Prepare now for a possible hurricane in Florida
“Now is the time to prepare for a hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait until this storm is officially named,” Porter said.
“This could quickly develop into a strong hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family on the Gulf Coast get caught off guard. Call or text them and tell them to prepare for a hurricane.
“There is a possibility that this storm will further intensify into a major hurricane, classified as a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 111 to 129 miles per hour.”
“This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season will be remembered for,” Porter said.
Bottom line: “People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf Coast need to complete their preparations for the hurricane’s impact by Wednesday evening before dangerous conditions arrive Thursday,” AccuWeather said.
Warnings and alerts throughout Florida
It is too early to make any observations or warnings about the developing system, but experts advise residents to keep a close eye on Invest 97L and start preparing now.
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What happens next?
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