Series preview San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks March 23-25 September 2024 – Logan Webb, Corbin Carroll, Heliot Ramos, Christian Walker

No, the San Francisco Giants aren’t going to blow the Arizona Diamondbacks away. They probably won’t even win a game. But! After blowing the Royals away in Kansas City and winning two of three games in Baltimore (and being in position to win!), we – and the Diamondbacks – can’t shake this simple feeling:

Maybe they could?

The Royals had lost 4 games in a row when the Giants came to town. That was the culmination of a streak in which they had lost 13 of 20 games. The Diamondbacks, however, have won 4 of 5. They are 38-21 in the second half. Yet they are just 11-9 in their last 20 games and 5-7 in their last 12 home games. Is that plausible? Is it conceivable that the Giants could still be a spoiler?

Arguments for YES

• The thought that they can do it is a good feeling.
• The Giants have played well on this road trip and usually play well in Arizona.
• The Dbacks have never faced Mason Black before, which gives the Giants an advantage.
• Matt Chapman will be closer to his newborn (his house is in Arizona) and thereby increase his newborn father energies
• Patrick Bailey will soon give his body a break that may give him one last adrenaline rush to reach the average.
• It would be fun.

Arguments for NO

• Hayden Birdsong was no challenge for Arizona’s lineup earlier this month.
• Logan Webb in the last 30 days (6 starts): 5.56 ERA (3.70 FIP) in 34 IP. Home ERA: 2.83, Road ERA: 4.36
• The Giants haven’t won a season series against a division rival (that wasn’t the Colorado Rockies) since 2021; they had the chance to do so against the Padres and were swept instead. To win the season series against the Diamondbacks, they would have to sweep.
• The Giants still have an allergy to .500 and now that they are just two wins away from reaching that goal, we should expect a hasty retreat.

Last September, the Dbacks embarrassed the Giants so badly that they fired their manager and most of their coaching staff because the owners felt it would be better to take a step back in that area than to embarrass themselves like that again. No one believes Bob Melvin & Co. are an improvement in game decisions, but are they motivated to fight until the last game of the season? The last 6 games seem to indicate they could do that, even if the previous week’s games did not.

In a recent piece for The Athletic, Andrew Baggarly pointed out that the 2009 team played well enough with enough young talent to save the jobs of Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean. The Giants probably can’t look forward to next season much (because, remember, they’re now chasing two other teams in their division for at least the next couple of years), but they can at least end this season feeling a little better. It’s not quite the same as preparing for the 2009 championship era, but in an era of nothing, a good mood is better than that.

Even postponing a Diamondbacks celebration would feel good, because if you’re going to stay alive for no other reason, please do it out of spite.

Series details

WHO: San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
When: Monday (6:40 p.m. PT), Tuesday (6:40 p.m. PT), Wednesday (6:40 p.m. PT)
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Monday and Wednesday)

Expected starters
Monday: Hayden Birdsong vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Tuesday: Logan Webb vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Wednesday: Mason Black vs. Zac Gallen

Where they stand

Dbacks, 87-69 (3rd in NLW, NLWC #2), 861 RS / 757 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5
Giants, 77-79 (4th in NLW, -10.0 WC), 664 RS / 671 RA | Last 10 games: 5-5

Diamondbacks in focus

Ketel Marte: The Giants missed him the last time these two teams met, and since he returned from injury on September 6, we can imagine how that could have turned out: bad for the Giants. He has been in top form all season, with a triple slash of .295/.374/.566 and 35 home runs (93 RBI). In his last 59 PAs since coming off the IL, he has hit 13-of-48 with 5 HR, 12 RBI, and 10 walks with 14 strikeouts. He also has a stolen base. He makes the Diamondbacks’ lineup not only longer, but more fearsome. He’s the leadoff hitter, batting 2nd, 3rd, and even 6th.

The 30-year-old second baseman/DH has faced the Giants 94 times in his career (392 PA) and has a career batting average of .305/.362/.520 against them.

Eduardo Rodriguez: Despite making only 8 starts in an injury-plagued season (he has an ERA of 5.09 so far), the Giants as a team are only 18-25 against left-handed starting pitchers. And that’s despite the fact that their lineup is much better positioned against left-handed pitchers:

vs RHP: .232/.299/.395
vs. LHP: .252/.320/.411

He’s coming off a game against the Rockies at Coors with 11 strikeouts and in his last home game he struck out 7 Brewers in 5 IP. He could be on a roll or the Giants’ right-handed hitters of Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Mark Canha and Tyler Fitzgerald have a chance to disappoint.

Corbin Carroll: He has an .876 OPS in his last 92 games, so it’s safe to say he salvaged his bad season (he had an OPS below .600 on June 5). He’s had a lot of hits (18) and a lot of runs (18) here in September, but the power hasn’t quite followed him (8 XBH in 91 PA). He hasn’t terrorized the Giants in his career (.213/.292/.296), it just feels that way because of course he batted 6-for-9 with a double, a home run and 3 stolen bases in that fateful September series last year. The Giants were in a position to recruit Carroll, but opted for Hunter Bishop instead. It’s a turning point that we can now look back on and see another part of the way the Giants and Dbacks parted ways in their respective rebuilds.

Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez: Right here lies another point where the two franchises parted ways. Walker is a waiver claim that worked out perfectly – a first baseman who replaced a franchise icon (Paul Goldschmidt) very effectively (a career OPS of .797 at AZ). Suarez, on the other hand, is a salary dump from Jerry Dipoto who really helped the other team. In September, he’s hitting .380/.412/.722 with 8 home runs and 3 doubles as part of a 30-hit terror attack on major league pitchers. He has just 5 walks with 23 strikeouts, though, so maybe the Giants can find some holes? Earlier this month at Oracle Park, he hit a home run and a double as his 2 hits in the series. Meanwhile, Walker has crushed the Giants in each of the last three seasons. He has a total of 38 of 141 with 3 home runs, 11 doubles, a triple and 34 walks with only 30 strikeouts.

Joc Pederson: This is a late change, but worth noting. After reaching the postseason every year of his career until he played for the Giants, Pederson got the brunt of the bad press (after Gabe Kapler) last season and was basically not considered as a DH despite two above-average seasons with the team. Even though he was thought to be done for, the move to a hitter-friendly stadium has seen his numbers rise back to the expected levels when switching from outfielder to DH: .278/.394/.522 in 434 PA with Arizona this year, including 23 home runs. He is just one hit away from 100 for the season and is kind of running out of steam here at the end of the year, hitting just .237/.310/.395 in September (43 PA). The Giants won’t be using any of their left-handers as a starter, so a chance to make an impression…or look silly.

Giants to watch

Heliot Ramos: OK, maybe he’s not a .900+ OPS guy, but he’s certainly not the .584 OPS guy he was for most of September, nor the .701 guy he’s been on the road so far – unless next season we realize, “No, wait, that’s him.” In 6 games against the Diamondbacks this season, he’s gone 7-for-20 with two home runs and two doubles, along with 6 walks and just 4 strikeouts.

Mike Yastrzemski: If the Giants don’t sign him, he’ll make significantly less than the estimated $10 million he was hoping to get in arbitration, so all he can do is play hard, do really well, and hope for good luck (that the Giants don’t continue to act in a way that undermines arbitration). That’s exactly what he’s doing here at the end of the season with 7 home runs in September. His September batting average of .194 and his OBP of .296 are suboptimal (.208 and .269 on the road), but he has a chance to sway those two numbers even further in his favor over the next three games. He has a career .222/.303/.528 line at Chase Field with 9 home runs, 4 doubles, and a triple.

Grant McCray: I suspect Brandon Pfaadt’s sweeper will give him some trouble, but I’m still excited to see what he can do against Pfaadt and Zac Gallen, because Chase Field seems like a park where some of his McCrazy moonshots could become memorable highlights in a few years should he develop into an All-Star. Still, a 7:1 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 58 batting appearances in September suggests he’ll be sent to school soon.

The pairings of the starting pitchers: The last time we saw Birdsong against the Diamondbacks, he was dazed and cursing himself after allowing 5 walks. He’s obviously looked better since then, but malice and revenge are powerful emotions that an athlete can use to enhance his performance. Then there’s Logan Webb, who was pretty good overall here in the second half (3.75 ERA / 3.22 FIP in 74.1 IP), but had a lackluster September to close out his 2024 (6.43 ERA / 3.31 FIP in 21 IP). Also, keep in mind the home/away split mentioned above – will Webb manage to pitch enough innings to break the 200 IP mark, his personal season goal? After all, this Mason Black is different than the Mason Black we saw earlier in the season, and while a sinker-sweeper-chucker might not stand out as a great starting pitcher, he could be effective enough to shock the Giants.

Forecast time