After a solid road trip that included series wins over the Giants and Diamondbacks (with a chance to sweep Arizona on Sunday), the Brewers face another heavyweight opponent, the Phillies, in Milwaukee starting Monday with a chance to secure the NL Central title at home.
Philadelphia held Milwaukee’s offense to just two runs in a three-game sweep in early June, although Milwaukee’s pitching staff also held the Phillies to just seven runs. At that point, the Phillies were the league’s best team with a 44-19 record, while Milwaukee was 36-26. Since then, the Brewers have played slightly better than the Phillies, and through Sunday have a 50-36 record compared to Philadelphia’s 45-40, although Philadelphia still leads the NL’s overall standings.
Philadelphia’s injured list includes outfielder Austin Hays (kidney infection), infielder Edmundo Sosa (back spasms) and pitcher Spencer Turnbull (right latissimus strain). Hays’ return is not yet certain as he is currently taking antibiotics for his illness. Sosa is close to returning and could possibly make it during this series, and Turnbull is expected to return before the postseason. After Alec Bohm was recalled from the IL before Sunday’s series finale with the Mets, the Phillies are nearly at full strength heading into the final weeks of the season.
Offensively, the Phillies are led by the usual suspects. Kyle Schwarber is approaching a 40-home run, 100-RBI season, as he currently has 35 home runs and 95 RBI. Bryce Harper is hitting .289/.376/.534 with 28 home runs and 82 RBI in another MVP-worthy season. Nick Castellanos has 20 home runs and 80 RBI, while Trea Turner (18 home runs, 55 RBI, 15 steals), Brandon Marsh (15 home runs, 55 RBI, 16 steals) and Alec Bohm (13 home runs and 89 RBI) round out the leaders. JT Realmuto is having a bit of a down year by his standards, hitting .267/.321/.423 with 12 home runs and 42 RBIs, while Bryson Stott leads the team with 29 steals and adds 11 home runs and 54 RBIs. As a team, the Phillies are among the leaders in nearly every offensive statistic, including home runs (180; ninth), runs (725; fifth), and OPS (.751; fourth).
In the bullpen, the Phillies are anchored by Carlos Estévez, acquired from the Angels at the trade deadline. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering and José Alvarado are also key pitchers, while Tanner Banks, José Ruiz and Tyler Gilbert complete the team. Hoffman leads the team with 63 appearances this year, with a 1.76 ERA, 10 saves and 81 strikeouts in 61 1⁄3 innings. Alvarado has 13 saves with a 3.92 ERA, Strahm has three saves with a 2.06 ERA and Kerkering has a 1.99 ERA. Estévez has a 1.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 18 2⁄3 innings since joining the team, earning six saves. As a pitcher, the Phillies have a 3.74 ERA (seventh) and 1,312 strikeouts (eighth). Their starters have a 3.68 ERA, which ranks fifth in baseball, while the bullpen’s 3.84 ERA ranks 13th.
Probable pitchers
Monday, September 16 at 6:40 p.m.: Aaron Civale (4.57 ERA, 4.70 FIP) vs. Ranger Suárez (3.05 ERA, 3.09 FIP)
Civale has had a solid two months since being signed by the Rays in early July. In 11 starts with the Brewers, he is 4-2 with a 3.84 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 58 2⁄3 innings. His last start was against the Giants in San Francisco, where he allowed two runs on three hits and one walk with two strikeouts in 5 1⁄3 innings in a win. This is his first career appearance against the Phillies.
Suárez is having a career year with the Phillies this season, with an ERA of 3.05 and a career-high 134 strikeouts in 138 2⁄3 innings so far. Despite those season numbers, he hasn’t had it easy lately, with a 5.30 ERA in his last seven starts, spread over an IL assignment that kept him out for most of August. In four starts since his return, he has allowed nine runs in 19 1⁄3 innings (4.19 ERA) with 18 strikeouts. The Brewers missed Suárez the last time these teams met, but in three career starts against Milwaukee, he has a 2.87 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 15 2⁄3 innings.
Tuesday, September 17, 6:40 p.m.: Frankie Montas (4.49 ERA, 4.40 FIP) vs. Zack Wheeler (2.60 ERA, 3.21 FIP)
In what would normally be Colin Rea’s starting spot, the Brewers have moved up Montas and Freddy Peralta a day, as DL Hall started the final game of the series on Sunday in Arizona and Rea has been hit hard lately (19 runs in his last 18 2⁄3 innings). Like Civale, Montas has been solid since being traded to the Brewers at the trade deadline. In eight starts for Milwaukee, he is 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 45 innings. His last start was one of his best in a Brewers uniform, allowing no runs on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in six innings in a win. In two career starts against Philadelphia, he is 1-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 10 2⁄3 innings. One of those appearances came in April when he was with the Reds, where he allowed one run on five hits and three walks with five strikeouts in five 2⁄3 innings.
Wheeler is once again one of the candidates for the NL Cy Young, with an ERA of 2.60 and 199 strikeouts in 179 2⁄3 innings this season. He had a strong August (1.62 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 innings), and he has looked solid in two starts in September (12 innings, 16 strikeouts, 2.25 ERA). He was one of the pitchers who shut down Milwaukee’s offense in June, allowing one run on five hits and three walks with six strikeouts in seven innings. Wheeler, who nearly became a Brewer at the 2015 trade deadline, has made 10 career starts against Milwaukee with a 2.53 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 64 innings.
Wednesday, September 18, 6:40 p.m.: Freddy Peralta (3.75 ERA, 4.27 FIP) vs. Aaron Nola (3.62 ERA, 4.09 FIP)
Peralta has had an up-and-down season, but he has looked strong since early August, with a 5-2 record, 35 strikeouts and a 3.35 ERA over 43 innings. In his last start against Arizona, he went five innings, allowing one run on six hits and four walks with five strikeouts. Peralta did not pitch in Milwaukee’s series against Philadelphia in June, but he has made six career appearances (five starts) against them. In 24 2⁄3 Innings he had 36 strikeouts with an ERA of 4.01.
Nola has been a mediocre starter for Philadelphia for most of his career. He has a career ERA of 3.71 and a 3.62 ERA in 2024, although his FIP of 4.09 is the worst mark of his career. He has struck out 174 batters in 181 1⁄3 innings this season as he approaches 200 strikeouts, which would be the sixth straight season (excluding the 2020 COVID-19 season). Against Milwaukee in June, he looked like an ace, allowing no runs on just two hits with five strikeouts in seven innings. In 13 career starts against the Brewers, he has a 2.76 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 78 1⁄3 innings.
forecast
This is one of the toughest series we’ve seen at American Family Field this season, especially with three of Philadelphia’s best pitchers competing. I’d like to win two of three as Milwaukee looks to win the division at home.
