San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Odds, Preview and Prediction – September 26

The San Diego Padres have already secured a playoff spot. They still have a chance to win the National League West if they can defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road on Thursday.

The Dodgers are giving that start to Walker Buehler. Buehler staggered with a 5.63 ERA in 2024 and allowed at least three runs in 12 of his 15 pitching appearances this season.

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With 2.0 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings allowed, Buehler’s fielding independent rating of 5.68 is even higher than his ERA. He now faces a Padres offense that leads Major League Baseball with a .274 batting average against right-handed pitchers.

Joe Musgrove is tasked with outplaying Buehler on the mound for San Diego. Although he has a 3.95 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings, he’s been a different pitcher since coming off the injured list on Aug. 12. He has a 2.05 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and zero or one run allowed in six of his eight starts since returning.

While the Dodgers rank second in the league in total runs scored, their offensive performance at home has declined sharply compared to away games: They score fewer than 4.9 runs per game at home, but nearly 5.4 runs per game away.

While this is one of the largest home-away splits in baseball, the Padres’ increase in productivity away from home is the largest in the National League. Through Wednesday, they were scoring nearly 5.1 runs per game away from home, compared to just over 4.4 runs per game at home.

The San Diego Padres bullpen has also performed better down the stretch, ranking 8th in ERA since July 1 with a 3.45 ERA, while the Dodgers are 16th with a 4.29 ERA.

Buehler’s struggles throughout the season and the San Diego Padres, who are playing their best on the road, will need a clear win on Thursday to keep their hopes of winning the division alive.

MLB selection: San Diego Padres +105

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