On Saturday, Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka will play for the US Open title (4 p.m. ET (ESPN; ESPN+). Pegula is the underdog and playing in her first major final, while Sabalenka has two Australian Open titles and reached the US Open final the last two years.
Who will prevail? Our experts give their opinion.
What can Pegula do to defeat Sabalenka?
Jason Goodall: For Pegula to have any chance at all – unless Sabalenka collapses – she must solve the puzzle of how to return Sabalenka’s first serve and score enough points on her own second serve.
In the Cincinnati Open final – admittedly, the conditions were much faster, which played into Sabalenka’s hands – Pegula had a lot of trouble handling the slice serve way out to her right-hand forehand. Even when she got it back, Sabalenka used her first shot very well to outmaneuver Pegula.
And when she saw Pegula’s second serve – which is very predictable – she pounced on it. Can Pegula serve well enough to put pressure on the scoreboard – and can she return well enough to neutralize Sabalenka’s serve?
D’Arcy Maine: It will be a tough fight for the American. In addition to Sabalenka’s experience in major finals, she also has a 5-2 lead in the series over Pegula.
But Pegula wasn’t exactly the favorite in the quarterfinals against Iga Swiatek. In the first set against Karolina Muchova on Thursday evening, it didn’t look like she had much of a chance of reaching the final. And yet here she is.
If Pegula wants to beat Sabalenka on Saturday, she can’t afford a slow and lame start like she did on Thursday. She’ll have to be ready from the first point. But she knows exactly what to expect after the two met in the Cincinnati final less than three weeks ago. Pegula said she knows she’ll have to be aggressive, “put some pressure on her serve” and just play her game. She’s been largely unflappable and calm throughout the two weeks and will need to remain just as composed on Saturday, despite playing the biggest match of her life.
Bill Connelly: Serving is pretty much everything. In Pegula’s two wins over Sabalenka (Cincinnati 2020 and Cancun 2023), she landed at least 61% of her first serves and won at least 63% of her first serve points; in five losses, her first serve percentage was 59% or worse four times and her first serve winning percentage was 56% or worse four times. Sabalenka is such a strong server that she doesn’t get that many break opportunities and needs to earn as many easy holds as possible. Pegula is capable and her serve got better and better over the course of her semifinal win over Muchova, but the bar is set very high here.
Tom Hamilton: Play the game of your life and get the crowd involved. This will be an incredible event for Pegula and she needs to use the hype and expectations as fuel rather than fueling the butterflies in her stomach. She can’t afford to let Sabalenka get off to a fast start and let the match start as slowly as she did against Muchova.
“I was about to burst into tears because it was so embarrassing. She destroyed me,” Pegula said after her semifinal victory on Thursday. Pegula considers Sabalenka “the favorite to win the tournament,” but Pegula has to put all that aside and ignore the record that has Sabalenka leading 5-2 in head-to-head matches. Pegula is used to exceeding expectations, as she did against Swiatek, but she has to throw everything at Sabalenka from the start.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Pegula needs to prevent Sabalenka from relaxing too much. That might mean changing the pace, using topspin and slice, receiving the ball early and occasionally moving in to give Sabalenka different options.
The longer the points, the better things could go for Pegula. In her semifinal victory between the second and third sets, Pegula won 10 of 17 points where nine or more balls were hit during the point. Pegula will have to rely on her tennis IQ and will to win and hope to wear Sabalenka out with long rallies. Most importantly, she will have to get the crowd going. The majority of Arthur Ashe Stadium will be behind her. She will have to get the crowd behind her and fire them up.
What can Sabalenka do to defeat Pegula?
Good man: Sabalenka is the clear favorite and can draw on everything she learned from her heartbreaking loss to Coco Gauff in the US Open final last year. She will go into this final forewarned and armed.
She will also know that the game plan she implemented in the Cincinnati final worked perfectly, so the focus will be solely on executing under pressure. Can Sabalenka handle the moment as the favorite with the crowd against her, something she struggled with in last year’s final?
Maine: Keep doing exactly what she’s done during her great run on the hard court this summer. In her last 11 matches – which saw her win the title in Cincinnati and reach the final here in New York – she’s dropped just one set.
She knows all the emotions that come with such a match and even knows what it’s like to face an American at Ashe when a title is on the line. In 2023, after winning the opening set in the final against Gauff, she struggled with the crowd heavily against her and let the nerves set in. On Thursday against American Emma Navarro, Sabalenka struggled to close out the match in the second set as the crowd loudly cheered her opponent. But she used her past experiences to focus and pull through. She called last year’s loss a “very tough lesson” — but one she wouldn’t let herself learn again. That attitude, and learning from her past mistakes, could help her to her third Grand Slam title on Saturday.
Connelly: Nothing. Nothing newat least. Sabalenka is quite simply the best hard court player in the world. She is currently 31-2 over her last five hard court Slams. She has won 11 of 15 sets against Pegula, she has won 22 of her last 23 sets, and she dispatched Pegula in the Cincinnati final a few weeks ago. After a rough stretch of three-set matches – she lost nine of 15 from summer 2023 to spring 2024 – she has won eight of her last 11 matches. She is the gold standard on this court, and it is all up to Pegula to find a way past her.
Hamilton: Like everyone else says, just do what comes naturally on this surface. It would be the perfect end to a year that saw her win the Australian Open in January, then fall ill during her quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva in Paris, retire from Wimbledon with a shoulder injury and then return in remarkable form for this tournament in New York. Sabalenka knows what it takes to win Grand Slam finals and that experience will be invaluable on Saturday. But she will have to tune out the crowd – she will have supporters, but it will feel like the whole world is against her.
Youngmisuk: Sabalenka just has to play her game, stay focused and confident, and keep her emotions under control in a crowd that will support Pegula. US Open fans want to see an American at the top again. Sabalenka can take the crowd out of the game early by overwhelming and dominating Pegula, as she has done many times in this tournament. Once she gets going, she’s almost unstoppable. And when Pegula starts to get going with the packed stadium behind her, Sabalenka will have to weather the storm.
Who will win?
Maine: Sabalenka. It would be incredible for an American to win the title for the second year in a row – and Pegula’s resilience and perseverance are a great story – but it’s hard to imagine anyone beating Sabalenka on this surface at the moment. Sabalenka won’t let this opportunity slip away again and she won in straight sets.
Connelly: Yes, Sabalenka. Pegula has beaten her before and nothing is impossible, but the odds are very much in Sabalenka’s favor and for good reason. Pegula will have to serve Gauff and get a little worked up about her. But I would say Sabalenka in straight sets.
Hamilton: If Pegula can do that, it will go down as one of the greatest achievements in modern American tennis history. But Sabalenka is just too good at playing and knows what it takes to get across the finish line, so she has the form and experience to do it.
Youngmisuk: Pegula has had such a wonderful run. It will feel like all of New York City is cheering her on to win the title. But Sabalenka is playing at a whole different level right now. She has won 35 of the 38 sets she has played in majors this season (92%). It is tough to see Sabalenka not finish her job and win the US Open title.
The betting perspective
Pamela Maldonado: Jessica Pegula +250 against Aryna Sabalenka
In a Grand Slam final, the mental aspect of the game is often more important than pure skill. Jessica Pegula has shown remarkable mental strength during the 2024 US Open. Her straight-sets quarterfinal victory over world number one Iga Swiątek was a significant breakthrough, as it was her first win against Swiątek in a Grand Slam and her first win in a major quarterfinal after six previous attempts. This success represents an important mental milestone and demonstrates Pegula’s ability to overcome past disappointments and improve her performance.
Pegula’s resilience was also evident in her comeback in the semifinal against Muchova, where she recovered from a set and a break deficit. These performances show me that Pegula is mentally prepared for the final.
In the duel with Sabalenka, Pegula’s strong return game could be crucial, as she may exploit Sabalenka’s occasional inconsistency on serve. Pegula’s game, which is based on consistency and minimizing unforced errors, contrasts with Sabalenka’s more aggressive style. Her excellent court coverage and ability to extend rallies could frustrate power players like Sabalenka.
Pegula has also shown tactical flexibility. In her semifinal against Muchova, she adjusted her strategy after losing the first set, varying her serves, targeting Muchova’s backhand and increasing the aggressiveness on returns in the third set. This adaptability could be a key factor in the final against Sabalenka. Pegula took a clear victory in her first major final with great momentum.
