Red Flag Warning for Monday; Increased risk of fire

Red flag warnings were issued for much of Minnesota. Gusty winds and dry air will create critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions create an environment where sparks or flames can quickly grow out of control.

When low humidity, high temperatures and strong winds come together, it creates a dangerous recipe for fire weather problems.

The fire danger has been increased to extreme levels in parts of northern Minnesota, meaning the fire situation is explosive and could result in significant property damage.

Since the 1960s, the National Weather Service has issued warning signals to warn people of an ongoing or impending critical fire weather pattern.

In order for a warning message to be issued, three criteria must be met:

• Wind speeds expected to exceed 20 miles per hour

• Relative humidity at 15 percent or less

• Classification of fire risk as high, very high or extreme

Smokey the Bear says it best: “Only you can prevent forest fires.”

The cold front causes dry air and breezy winds

A dry but strong cold front will push through the eastern Dakotas and into Minnesota on Monday. Ahead of the front, a breezy wind blows from the south, turning to the northwest after it passes.

Expect sustained winds around 20 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph behind the front.

With the introduction of the newest system our dew points will drop to the 30s.

Persistent dryness until early October

I’m starting to run out of ways to say “dry” in the forecast. Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recorded just 0.06 inches of rain this month, which is 2.87 inches below the monthly average.

There is still no sign of precipitation in the long-term forecast. Our extended forecast for early to mid-October continues to trend toward above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.