Can Gavin Williams overcome his weakness and live up to the hype he received last season before an early injury derailed his progress? A game against the Rays could certainly help as Tampa’s offense has stumbled.
The Cleveland Guardians want to create a good atmosphere at their home game against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays.
Our top predictions for the Rays vs. Guardians game predict that Cleveland will extend its winning streak to four games tonight.
My MLB picks not only take a look at the straight moneyline, but also score an SGP for today’s action.
Prediction for Rays vs. Guardians
My best bet
Guardians moneyline (-140 at betway)
My analysis
Cleveland Guardians starter Gavin Williams was roughed up by the Los Angeles Dodgers last time out, failing to even make it past the first inning. Fortunately, the Tampa Bay Rays are a whole different class, boasting a .290 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, which ranks 29th.
This is a comeback point for Williams, and he also has a statistical correction coming his way: His 5.25 ERA is significantly higher than his 4.13 xFIP, and his .303 BABIP will likely drop while his 64% beach rate should increase. The 25-year-old right-hander posted stats of 3.29, 4.53, .270 and 78.3% in his 16 starts last season, so while his surface numbers in 2024 were worse, you can argue he pitched better, too.
Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot has been the exact opposite with his 3.66 ERA under his 4.17 xFIP and has negative regression ahead of his .255 BABIP and 74.8% beach rate. A date with the rolling Guardians isn’t ideal either. Cleveland ranks fifth with a .333 wOBA and .333 on-base percentage during their highlighted 9-4 stretch.
The final piece of the puzzle is the Cleveland bullpen, which has the lowest ERA (2.74) in baseball and the second-lowest xFIP (3.66). I like to bet on the better top-to-bottom team on the moneyline.
Rays vs. Guardians – Same Game Accumulator (SGP)
Guardians Moneyline
Gavin Williams takes the win
Ryan Pepiot Over 1.5 walks allowed
A quick look at Williams’ game log shows seven consecutive starts against teams that could play in the postseason, and Tampa Bay is again out of the same bracket. As mentioned, I expect a bounce-back effort against a weaker opponent and for Williams to complete five frames to position himself for the win.
Pepiot has issued six walks in his last two starts and his batting average has been inconsistent all season, with 3.19 BB/9 and 8.6 BB%. He also has two or more walks in half of his 2024 starts.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs. Guardians odds
Rays vs Guardians Live Odds
Opening odds Rays vs. Guardians
- Money line: Tampa Bay +120 | Cleveland -140
- Execute line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-185) | Cleveland -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Rays vs. Guardians Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- There was a significant shift toward the Cleveland side of this moneyline, with Pinnacle opening at -135 on the Guardians and correcting to -145 on Thursday morning.
- Cleveland is also up 10 points at bet365 and I don’t expect the Rays to buy him back unless there are more trades to the Guardians.
- While there was some back and forth between Pinnacle and bet365 regarding this total of 7.5, both shops are back at the opening odds of 7.5, with Over bringing the higher commission.
- It is noteworthy that Pinnacle quickly reached an overall score of 8.0 and maintained it throughout the night.
Rays vs. Guardians Trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the moneyline in 84 of their last 146 games (+12.47 units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Guardians here.
Match info Rays vs Guardians
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio |
| Date: | Thursday, 12.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Ryan Pepiot (8-6, 3.66 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (3-8, 5.25 ERA) |
Rays vs Guardians: Latest injuries
Rays vs. Guardians Weather
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