Ranking the NFL’s 3-0 teams: Are the Steelers, Seahawks and Vikings real?

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It’s only been three weeks, but the NFL is already a chaos factory. Week 3 in particular was a bloodbath for the survivors.

However, five teams survived the chaos unscathed. Two of the undefeated teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, are no surprise. But the other 3-0 teams – the Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers – well, no one expected that.

But how much should we believe in their hot starts? We’ll use my NFL projection model to examine where each team stands in terms of making the playoffs, winning their division, and getting their conference’s only first-round bye. Then let’s rank the five teams in order of my confidence that they can maintain their path to the playoffs.

So let’s start with the obvious:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 97%
Odds of winning the division: 90%
Chances of a bye in the first round: 41%

A shocking #1, right? We won’t spend much time here. They are back-to-back Super Bowl champions; They have made six straight AFC Championship Games appearances and are led by three-time champion and two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes. The AFC runs over Kansas City — the Chiefs have a 31 percent chance of winning the AFC — until another team proves it can beat them in January.

That doesn’t mean the Chiefs don’t have flaws. There are certainly times when it seems like they are not at their best. We saw this most of last season and saw it again this year. To be honest, they are only a few times away from 0-3.

The Chiefs seem content to just make the playoffs and then flip the switch. So if they lose a game or two or seem like they’re nowhere near the best in the league, don’t be surprised. But right now, the current Chiefs are the closest thing to the Tom Brady-era Patriots, which means they should never be discounted.

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2. Buffalo Bills

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 91%
Odds of winning the division: 57%
Chances of a bye in the first round: 23%

If you told me that at the end of the year the Bills secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC and were the best team in the conference, I wouldn’t be shocked. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite and for good reason. He was the best player in the NFL through the first three weeks, and it wasn’t close. He is the only QB I would put in the same conversation as Mahomes. He’s not quite there yet, but he’s certainly the next best thing.

Many viewed this season as a rebuilding year for the Bills after they traded Stefon Diggs to Houston, but a 3-0 start has put that discussion to rest. The Bills were the third-best team in the AFC according to my early season predictions, but they have already moved up to second place and the gap to the third-place Baltimore Ravens (1-2) is growing. The Bills are currently the second-most likely team to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, as always, Mahomes and the Chiefs are standing in their way.

3. Seattle Seahawks

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 68%
Odds of winning the division: 49%
Chances of a bye in the first round: 12%

OK. This is where it becomes difficult to land in the rankings. For me, it’s pretty close between the Seahawks and Vikings, and even though the Vikings have had the more impressive wins over the last two weeks (wins against the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans), I’m giving Seattle the edge.

Coach Mike Macdonald’s first season couldn’t have started better, and his defensive abilities are already evident. The Seahawks’ defense leads the league in EPA/play and percentage of plays that go for at least 10 yards. Sure, the opposing attacks they faced weren’t top notch, but the sheer dominance means something. At the start of the season my model predicted they would be around league average, but they have already moved into the top five. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but usually the dominance of bad teams is an indicator of future success.

If the defense can play at a top-10 level, the Seahawks will be a threat in the NFC playoffs. QB Geno Smith isn’t going to win an MVP, but he’s more than capable of throwing efficiently against players like DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. My confidence in the Seahawks may be premature, but the numbers are what they are and the Seahawks are currently my favorite to win the NFC West. Which leads us to…

Betting breakout

The Seahawks are off to a 3-0 start while the rest of the NFC West is 1-2. Given the Rams’ messy injury situation, I think there’s a good chance the Seahawks are the second-best team in the division. My predictions are that the Seahawks are closer to a coin flip to win the division, so the Seahawks at +185 represent sufficient value.

Our choice: Seahawks win the NFC West (+185)

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4. Minnesota Vikings

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 77%
Odds of winning the division: 36%
Chances of a bye in the first round: 19%

If these rankings were based solely on resumes, the Vikings could be at the top of this list. Their wins over the 49ers and Texans were truly impressive, so please don’t consider their fourth place on this list as disrespect. My model sees the Vikings as a top 10 team. Coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have been in top form, and this week another great challenge/opportunity awaits each of them with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are currently the slight favorite in the NFC North entering this week, but a road win would solidify their lead.

How did we get here? It starts with Sam Darnold, who has been great in O’Connell’s offensive system. According to TruMedia, Darnold currently ranks 13th in EPA/dropback and 14th in dropback success rate. Perhaps most impressively, Darnold ranks fourth in EPA/dropback when not pressured.

But you can’t talk about the Vikings without mentioning the work Flores has done with their defensive unit. The Vikings rank fifth in EPA/game and fourth in defensive success rate. Did I mention they played the 49ers and Texans? If the Vikings can keep Darnold clean and the defense can get anywhere near its current level of success, the Vikings will end up at the top of the NFC North.

Go deeper

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5. Pittsburgh Steelers

Chances of reaching the playoffs: 80%
Odds of winning the division: 52%
Chances of a bye in the first round: 11%

The Steelers are last on this list, but how could you not be impressed with the job this coaching staff has done? The defense is great again, but that wasn’t hard to predict. However, the offense was a pleasant surprise, even if the numbers aren’t great.

Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has gotten the best out of Justin Fields in three weeks. The most impressive thing about how Fields plays in this system? He cut out the negative plays. Fields ranks 10th among qualified quarterbacks in sacks and interceptions per dropback this season at just 7.7%. That’s the same number as Patrick Mahomes in three weeks. From 2021 to 2023, Fields ranked last (38th) among qualified quarterbacks in the same metric at 13.2%. This improvement alone shows tremendous growth from Fields as well as excellent coaching from the Steelers. Or maybe it’s a Bears problem.

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Despite Fields’ improvements, he still ranks 17th in dropback success rate, which is up 47% over the Chargers. If you get this version of Fields every week, the Steelers are done. But if that’s the ceiling and the offense returns to the efficiency level of the first two weeks, I’m not sure how far this team can go. Can the Steelers make the playoffs? Absolutely. In fact, they are absolute favorites for me (80%). But in order to be one of the best in the league, I need to see more consistency on offense first.

(Photos by Kevin O’Connell and Mike Tomlin: Adam Bettcher and Joe Sargent / Getty Images)