Our best guess for the Lightning’s season-opening roster

With the season opener deadline fast approaching and most preseason games behind them, it’s time to make an educated guess about what the Tampa Bay Lightning’s roster will look like when they start their season against Carolina on Friday. A few injuries over the last week have dampened things a bit, but despite the exceptional play of some rookies, there probably won’t be too many surprises.

Currently, the figure skating injured list consists of Luke Glendening, Mikey Eyssimont and Gage Goncalves. None of the injuries appear to be long-term, and general manager Julien BriseBois wants to avoid LTIR as much as possible to create salary cap space for roster adjustments later in the season.

In addition to skill level, there will be a number of factors that will influence the final decisions that Mr. BriseBois and his team will have to make in order to assemble the right mix of players for the season. There are still a few players in camp who need to clear waivers, and some of the rookies still playing will benefit more from increased ice time in Syracuse than playing seven or eight minutes a night in Tampa.

Unless the NHL grants the Lightning (and Nashville) an exception due to the postponement of their preseason game, the season-opening roster must comply with the caps and be submitted to the NHL by 5:00 p.m. EST on Monday. Chances are good that we’ll have an idea of ​​who will be added to the Bolts’ roster a little sooner, as any player who needs to send a waiver to the AHL must be added to that roster by Sunday.

We anticipate that Mr. BriseBois will not make late waiver claims or make a last-minute trade. It’s not entirely unrealistic to think he could do that, but in the past he’s been pretty happy with the squad he’s put together in the summer.

There are a few simple steps you can choose. The two players the Lightning recalled in the last two days (Dylan Duke and Gabriel Szturc) will be returned to Syracuse. Ethan Gauthier returns to Drummondville to finish his junior career. The 19-year-old picked up an assist in three preseason games but is still a year away from being included in the squad.

Although nothing has been made official, PuckPedia reports that the Lightning will release Logan Brown from his PTO and he will sign an AHL contract with the Syracuse Crunch. If he hadn’t gotten injured earlier in camp, there’s a good chance he would have gotten a contract. Now he’ll work on getting healthy in Syracuse, knowing he can sign an NHL contract with any team in the league.

Matt Tomkins cleared waivers today and was transferred to Syracuse. So Conor Geekie, Max Groshev, Jesse Ylonen, Max Crozier, Steve Santini and Declan Carlile are the players in the bubble. Jack Finley and Gabriel Fortier are technically still on the training camp roster, but will be out until at least December due to injuries. So let’s take a look at who we think will end up on the team.

Goalkeeper:

This is by far the easiest category to figure out. The Lightning will only have two goaltenders, and we had a good idea of ​​who they would be from the start of camp. Andrei Vasilevskiy will be the starter and play the majority of the games. He’s healthy and ready to go after missing the first few months of last season. He had a full summer to prepare and made a good impression in preseason.

After a rocky start in the preseason, Jonas Johansson finished strong with 43 saves on 45 shots in his last two appearances. The quadriceps injury that shortened his season last year appears to be well behind him.

Defense:

This is pretty straightforward and the top four features Victor Hedman, JJ Moser, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak. Darren Raddysh will be the third right-back. As for the remaining spot, it should be Emil Lilleberg and Nick Perbix. Lilleberg is a natural player on the left, but Perbix has played on his offside in the past. Santini has to approve waivers, but that should be a formality.

Crozier and Carlile are both exempt and will likely be sent to Syracuse soon. However, depending on other moves, Mr. BriseBois may need some cap space, and in that case Carlile could be on the opening night roster since he makes $100,000 less than Lilleberg (who is also exempt from waivers). .

Forward:

It’s fun here. Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul, Zemgus Girgensons and Mitchell Chaffee are on the roster. Conor Sheary will make it too (sorry, Sheary non-believers). Cam Atkinson will also be in the squad.

The status of Mikey Eyssimont and Luke Glendening is still uncertain, which definitely clouds the situation a bit. Both skated in training but have not yet been cleared to play. Goncalves wore a red non-contact jersey after suffering an upper body injury last week.

All things being equal, there’s a good chance that Connor Geekie and Max Groshev have done enough to earn a spot on the roster. Unfortunately, things are not the same and both players are exempt, but some of their teammates are not. Would Jesse Ylonen be eligible if granted a waiver? Probably not, but that may not be a risk Mr. BriseBois wants to take.

Ylonen has played fairly well in his four preseason games, with positive numbers in shooting percentage (54.26 CF%) and expected goals (52.85 xGF%), so it’s not like the job will be handed to him. He will bring speed and skill to the fourth line. Groshev provided a bit more offense with an iXG of 0.44 compared to Ylonen’s 0.03 at 5v5, but was upside down in terms of possession numbers. With the focus on reducing chances and keeping the puck away from the net, players might opt ​​for the strong defensive player, and so far that has been Ylonen.

As for Geekie. Yes, we all want him to make the team, but it’s probably for the best that he starts at Syracuse and then forces the Bolts to draft him when he has a similar breakthrough in the AHL to Nikita Kucherov in 2013-14 . As good as Geekie was during the rookie showcase and training camp, he still needs a little more experience before he becomes a regular part of the Lightning lineup.

Given his lack of NHL experience, Goncalves is more likely to accept waivers than Ylonen, and that will likely be the deciding factor if he is healthy enough to play. Should one of the forwards be injured or sidelined early in the season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gage was one of the first forwards to be recalled.

Our look at the roster and possible lineups for the Lightning on opening night:

Forward:

Jake Guentzel – Brayden Point – Nikita Kucherov

Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Conor Sheary

Cam Atkinson – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee

Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Jesse Ylonen

More: Mikey Eyssimont

Defense:

Victor Hedman – JJ Moser

Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak

Emil Lilleberg – Darren Raddysh

More: Nick Perbix

Goalkeeper:

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Jonah Johanson

This would give the Lightning a 22-man roster and leave them $730,000 under the cap, according to PuckPedia. If Glendening or Eyssimont are not ready for opening night, they could play the first game with an 11/7 rotation. As discussed below, they could also trade Carlile for Lilleberg and sign another forward with a cap hit under $825,000.