The Phillies had a chance to win the NL East last weekend, but lost three of four games to the Mets.
For more information on the Phillies, contact Ethan Witte, who runs our SB Nation Phillies site, The Good Phight.
The Phillies come home this week to face the Cubs with the magic number 1 seed and secure the National League East title for the first time since 2011. Assuming they get one of those wins against the Cubs, they won’t rest on their laurels and will just be content to move on to the playoffs.
Their stated goal is to finish in first place in the tournament, as it could mean they have home-court advantage not only in every NL series, but also in the World Series if they make it that far. They have clearly missed their home game since they were beaten in Queens by a red-hot Mets team, and being back and knowing they still have a lot to win should give them the motivation they need.
The offense has a little problem chasing down throws outside the zone right now, the problem that doomed them in the NLCS a year ago, but that should be fixed soon. The starting pitchers, aside from the desiccated husk of Taijuan Walker, have been good all year. The bullpen has been firing on all cylinders for a while. They’ll likely be looking at the division against the Cubs soon.
Funny fact
The Cubs have played 1,180 games in Philadelphia since the Phillies joined the National League in 1883. They have won 574, lost 596 and tied 10 for a winning percentage of .491. They have been more successful on the road against only one active National League opponent: .510 in San Diego in 259 games since 1969.
Since 2000, the Cubs are just 32-39, .451, winning just seven of 23 series, splitting three and losing 13. In three-game series, they have won six and lost 10. Last year they lost two of three games for the eighth time since 2000. Two years ago was only the second time they won three games. The first time was in 2000. The Cubs have lost all three games twice, in 2009 and 2019.
(Courtesy of JohnW53 of BCB)
Probable pitching matchups
Monday: Nate Pearson, RHP (2-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 4.48 FIP overall; 2-1, 3.13 ERA, 0.957 WHIP, 4.21 FIP in 16 games with the Cubs) vs. Aaron Nola, RHP (12-8, 3.54 ERA, 1.173 WHIP, 4.04 FIP)
Tuesday: Justin Steele, LHP (5-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, 3.18 FIP) vs. TBD
Wednesday: Javier Assad, RHP (7-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.367 WHIP, 4.39 FIP) vs. Cristopher Sánchez, LHP (11-9, 3.25 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, 2.95 FIP)
Apparently, the Cubs are using Pearson as an opener for a bullpen game in the series opener.
Times & TV channels
Monday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Tuesday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Wednesday: 5:05 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
forecast
These two teams have played pretty evenly over the past few weeks. Since September 6, the Cubs are 8-7 while the Phillies are 7-8.
As Ethan Witte wrote, the Phillies will likely clinch the NL East title in this series. But I still think the Cubs can win two of three. If the Cubs somehow pull off an improbable sweep, it would give them a winning road record for 2024. Since being swept in Cleveland in mid-August, they are 11-4 outside of Wrigley Field.
Next
The Cubs have Thursday off and will then finish the 2024 season with a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field starting Friday afternoon.
