Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Game Prediction: Who Will Win and Why?

SEC football returns to the stage this weekend as No. 12 Ole Miss looks to rebound from its first loss with a road trip to South Carolina in Week 6 of college football on Saturday. Let’s check out our updated prediction for the game.

Ole Miss scrapped its non-conference schedule but started SEC play 0-1 after a surprise loss at home to Kentucky that slowed the team’s top offense and allowed its defense to allow a late touchdown.

South Carolina is a mixed bag offensively, averaging 40th in the FBS in rushing production but ranking just 107th nationally in passing production and coming off a big win over Akron and a loss to LSU and a win over Kentucky in SEC conference play at 3-1.

What can we expect in this week’s game?

Here’s what to look for when Ole Miss and South Carolina square off in this Week 6 college football matchup with our updated prediction.

1. Gamecocks in front. South Carolina’s defensive front poses a formidable challenge to Ole Miss’ offense and can generate plenty of pace and pressure from the perimeter.

Kyle Kennard has 5.5 sacks and Dylan Stewart another 2.5, while Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart was sacked four times last week.

As a team, the Gamecocks have 14 sacks and 11 tackles for loss and enter the game ranked fourth among SEC teams with 161 pass yards allowed and have given up an average of 17 points.

2. Rebels on the attack. Despite last week’s struggles, this is still a potent offense led by a quarterback who averages 363 yards per game and scores 13 touchdowns on the year.

And despite Carolina’s overall defensive success, there could be some holes at the back after the unit allowed long scoring games against the likes of Old Dominion and Akron.

Ole Miss should find some wiggle room to send its receivers to the deeper part of the field, with players like Tre Harris, the offense’s only real hope last week and the most productive pass catcher in the country, in addition to former Gamecock transfer Antwane Wells This needs to be tested secondary.

If Dart and the Rebels’ blockers can adjust to Carolina’s quick pass rush early by getting the ball out quickly, they can force this defense to spread out and reduce some of the Gamecocks’ advantages near the line.

3. Stop the QB. Either LaNorris Sellers or Robby Ashford for Carolina at quarterback, and both pose a real challenge for the Rebels’ first seven tacklers, all of whom emerge as credible rushing threats, extending plays and making their own with a variety of scripted and unscripted runs Can create plays.

Sellers built a two-touchdown lead against LSU before exiting with an ankle injury, and there are doubts about whether he will be healthy. If not, Ashford is more than capable, passing for 243 yards and running for another 133 yards last week.

Most analytical models are still on the Rebels side to take care of the Gamecocks.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Ole Miss is expected to win the game in most 75.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That left South Carolina as the expected winner in the remaining 24.8 percent of sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Ole Miss is expected to be 10.3 points better than South Carolina with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Prediction: What the Analytics Say

According to FanDuel Sportsbook data, Ole Miss is a 9-point favorite against South Carolina.

FanDuel lists the total score for the game at 53.5 points.

And the moneyline odds to win outright are -350 for Ole Miss and +280 for South Carolina.

Most bets have the Gamecocks playing this game against the Rebels, as shown by the latest spread consensus picks.

A clear majority – around 60 percent – of bets assume South Carolina will either completely defeat Ole Miss or keep the game within the point range.

The other 40 percent of bets assume the Rebels will win the game and cover the spread.

If the first four games of the season felt like the Rebels’ ceiling, the last week felt like their low point. The reality of this team is somewhere in the middle.

Carolina has two mobile quarterbacks who can give any defense a real headache, but they still play behind a somewhat suspect line that is vulnerable to pressure at times.

Ole Miss comes into the game ranked third nationally in sacks recorded and first in the FBS in tackles for loss, which should impact some of Sellers’ or Ashford’s game-changing plays.

And while the Gamecocks create a lot of pressure on the edges and throw Dart out of rhythm early, the Rebels have more than enough options for the quarterback to throw quick passes to and who can get around those midfield defenders and then produce yards on the hook.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Score Prediction by Expert Model

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

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