Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
In general, there is not much seismic activity in South Bend, Indiana.
But on Saturday a massive earthquake was felt there.
Notre Dame was a clear favorite by 28 points in its home opener, but lost 16-14 to Northern Illinois. And the Fighting Irish’s setback was a significant win for some bookmakers.
“The outright loss of Notre Dame is huge for us,” said Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports at TwinSpires Sportsbook.
Some bookmakers spoke out after the surprising result, which will undoubtedly also affect Notre Dame’s chances in the College Football Playoffs.
Parlays are lost
Granted, there weren’t many people betting on Notre Dame -28 in their singles. And Notre Dame was in the -6000 to -8000 moneyline range, so that wasn’t attractive for singles either. Even at -6000, you’d have to bet $6,000 to win just $100.
Still, enough TwinSpires customers felt compelled to include the Irish in their moneyline parlay bets, even though the value at these odds is almost nonexistent.
Notre Dame was essentially viewed as a blank on a moneyline parlay bingo card, a sure bet to win the game regardless of the outcome. But it didn’t work out that way.
Northern Illinois scored a field goal in the final minute to take a 16-14 lead, but then blocked a 55-yard field goal attempt by Notre Dame as time expired.
“The point spread wasn’t a big decision, but Notre Dame’s moneyline was in every parlay bet,” Lucas said.
Some bettors avoid
Prime Sportsbook, which operates in Ohio and New Jersey, tends to take stricter measures than most operators. And Prime also accepted fewer parlay bets on Saturday’s game, which is why the bookmaker’s office was only slightly ahead in Notre Dame’s surprise loss.
“Our betting was pretty even. It was a small win for us as there were a lot of Irish skeptics, both before the game and during the game,” said Joe Brennan Jr., executive chairman of Prime Sportsbook. “Even some of the bettors who bet big money and like to chase favorites with long odds stayed away from this game.”
CFP could be a reminder
In Week 1, Notre Dame went to Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog and pulled out a 23-13 win, putting the Irish on a pretty good path to the College Football Playoff, except for the final regular season game on Nov. 30 at USC.
And Notre Dame’s odds of winning the national championship were over 1600, putting Notre Dame among the top eight teams.
Currently, the Fighting Irish are +7000 to win the CFP title at DraftKings Sportsbook, putting them ahead of 15 other teams. Another loss could not only cost Notre Dame a chance at the championship, but even a place in the 12-team playoffs.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a renowned journalist covering national sports betting. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 100-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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