NLDS odds, tips, best bets

After making another impressive rally in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets have a chance to bring home the series with a 2-0 stranglehold on Sunday.

Phillies manager Rob Thomson made an interesting decision to start Cristopher Sánchez in Game 2 over Aaron Nola.

Sánchez was fantastic down the stretch and is arguably the superior starter at this point. He also posted an ERA of just 2.21 at Citizens Bank Park compared to 5.02 on the road.

The oddsmakers give the Phillies a smaller chance of winning Sunday’s match compared to Game 1. They are the -155 favorite after finishing Game 1 at -175, while the overall odds remain the same at 7.5.

Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 Odds

Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 Prediction

The main argument against the decision to use Sánchez instead of Nola in this matchup would be the Mets’ superior distribution against left-handed pitchers and right-handed hitters.

The Mets posted a fourth-best wRC+ of 118 against southpaws this season, compared to a wRC+ of 105 against right-handed pitchers.

Since August 1st, they have posted a wRC+ of 119 against lefties and an OPS of .769. They rank fourth in BB/K ratio during this period and eighth in hit rate at 33.6%.

Sánchez earned the right to this start with his tremendous form throughout the course. In his last eight starts, the Dominican native posted a pitch of 2.50 and an xFIP of 3.11. He had a K-BB percentage of 19.2 and allowed an xBA of .235 during that span.

Sánchez finished with a 58 percent ground ball rate this season, the third-highest mark among qualified starters, and likely helped him surpass his xERA.

The Phillies are also hitting left-handed pitchers significantly better than right-handed pitchers this season, which should benefit Luis Severino, who will start for the Mets on Sunday. As of July 1, Philadelphia ranks 19th with a wRC+ of 100 against right-handers.

In his last 48 ⅓ innings, Severino had a 3.17 ERA and a 3.45 xFIP. He has a Stuff+ rating of 113 during that span and has struck out 26.7% of batters faced.

Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 Pick

Game 1 managed just over the betting total of 7.5 thanks to numerous late runs.

Both bullpens are performing very well, and it seems foolish to rely on the Phillies in particular to repeat Saturday’s collapse with their talented replacements.

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Considering the way both starters performed down the stretch and the quality of the relief arms available to both sides, a 7.5 overall looks too high and I see value in taking the under at slightly better than -120 to support.

Best choice: Under 7.5 total runs (+100, ESPN bet)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Nicholas Martin breaks down the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors reach their own conclusions, but also has a 180 unit lead himself in verified picks on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.