NHC monitors possible tropical development in Caribbean next week; Atlantic remains active

BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — Even as we approach the end of September, the climatological peak of hurricane season, the tropical Atlantic remains very active as we still have a lot of season left. There are currently three storms in the Atlantic and two other areas to monitor for possible development.

Tropical Storm Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce remain over open waters, while Tropical Depression Twelve was only declared Sunday afternoon and will likely become Kirk, the next named storm.

There is another area to watch closely this week in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There is no immediate threat to Louisiana; However, there is a chance that a system could impact somewhere along the Gulf Coast in about a week, so we need to stay current with the forecasts.

Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates an area in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico where potential tropical development is possible. There is a fairly extensive area of ​​lower pressure in the area and gradual development is possible. A tropical depression could form by midweek and move west-northwest into the Gulf during the second half of the week.

From then on, there is a large degree of uncertainty about any potential trace or intensity of a system. The model consultancy continues to have a wide range of solutions, and this will continue until a truly defined center is formed, if one emerges at all. It is important not to get caught up in individual model runs that may occur with this long lead time and to stick to official forecasts.

The NHC currently has a 0% chance of development in the next two days and a medium chance (50%) in the next seven days. Stakeholders along the entire Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecasts early next week.

Tropical Storm Isaac

Tropical Storm Isaac once peaked as a Category 2 hurricane before beginning a weakening trend. It is located in the central North Atlantic and will move further northeast, passing over cooler water and stronger wind shear, which will further weaken the system as it remains over open water. The storm is not expected to pose a threat to the country.

Tropical Storm Joyce

Tropical Storm Joyce continues to battle hostile conditions as it begins to turn northward. The system will continue to weaken and eventually dissipate over open waters by midweek.

Tropical Depression Twelve

Invest 90L, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, has become more organized with a defined circulation center and has become a tropical depression. Conditions will be favorable and he will soon be named Kirk. Strengthening into a major hurricane is forecast by the end of the week.

Its movement will be west and then northwest, fortunately remaining over open water for the next week.

East Atlantic

A tropical wave that has moved into low latitudes just off the African coast could see a chance of gradual development, with a tropical depression possible by midweek as it moves west-northwest in the eastern Atlantic. There is currently a medium (50%) chance of development in the next seven days.

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