Modi’s BJP is ahead in one state but lagging behind in another

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is leading in the northern state of Haryana but is set to fall behind in Indian-administered Kashmir as votes continue to be counted in two major elections.

In Jammu and Kashmir, an opposition alliance made up of the Congress and the regional party National Conference (NC) is ahead.

These were the first general elections in India since the general elections in which the BJP returned to power with a victory in June reduced majority.

A third straight victory in Haryana would be a big boost for Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of another state election due in the next few weeks.

The Congress had expressed confidence ahead of the results that Haryana would clinch a victory, but analysts now say complacency, infighting and consolidation against the powerful Jat community may have hurt its chances.

A high-profile seat in Haryana – Julana – gave the Congress some relief as a top contender Vinesh Phogat won her first election.

The two results have once again proven that polls were wrong – they had predicted a Congress majority in Haryana and a stalemate in Jammu and Kashmir.

Both Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have 90 parliamentary seats and a party or coalition that crosses the halfway mark can form the government.

According to the votes counted so far, the Congress-NC alliance is ahead with around 48 seats in Jammu and Kashmir, while the BJP is ahead with 29 seats. The BJP’s count was helped by its performance in the Hindu-majority Jammu region.

This was the first general election in Jammu and Kashmir since 2019, when the federal government revoked the region’s autonomy and converted it into a federally administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir.

In the three-phase elections, BJP and Congress leaders made several promises, including restoration of full statehood.

Lots of voters told the BBC that they hoped the election would give them a chance to voice their concerns after years of having no local representatives.

But many say they are skeptical about the influence the elected government will have, as the prime minister must seek approval from the federally appointed lieutenant governor when making major decisions.

After the last election in 2014, the BJP formed a government with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But in June 2018, they parted ways due to political and ideological differences amid increasing violence in the Kashmir Valley. Since then, Delhi has ruled the region.

The 2024 election was closely watched as it was seen by federal officials as evidence of normality in a region that has faced decades of militancy.

The region has seen violent insurgencies against Indian rule for more than three decades, leaving thousands of people dead.

India blames Pakistan for fomenting the violence, a charge its neighbor denies. The countries have fought two wars over Kashmir, both of which claim full ownership but only partially administer.

For the first time in decades, several separatists supporting Kashmir’s independence from India also took part in the elections. Smaller actors and regional parties hoped to play a crucial role in forming a government after exit polls suggested the assembly was empty.

In Haryana, after a decade in power, the ruling BJP faced a major challenge to counter the incumbency.

Congress’s hopes boosted by anger over controversial federal farm laws – now withdrawn – and a short-term BJP recruitment program for the army.

The farm laws had sparked months of protests by farmers in Haryana and neighboring states as protesters feared they would allow private players to enter agriculture.

The short-term army recruitment program, Agniveer, has been a contentious issue in the state, adding to this a significant number of soldiers to the Indian Army, especially at a time when India is grappling with an employment crisis.

But now the BJP seems ready to overcome these challenges and score a hat-trick victory.