MLB Series Preview: Mets’ fate could be decided in Milwaukee

This weekend’s series is Schrödinger’s series: It will either decide the Mets’ postseason future or it will do nothing at all.

I’ll try to make this as simple as possible. If the Diamondbacks are defeated and the Mets win at least one, they will have secured a spot in the playoffs. If the Mets win one more game than the Diamondbacks this weekend, they’ll be in the mix. If the Mets win two more games than the Braves this weekend, they’ll be in the mix.

All other scenarios require at least one game on Monday, but let’s not consider Schrödinger’s doubleheader just yet; Schrödinger’s series still concerns us.

The Mets are the only one of the four teams in the hunt for three spots that will play a team with nothing to play this weekend. The Brewers are assured of the No. 3 seed in the National League playoffs regardless of what happens in these three games, so their focus is much different than the Mets’. For the Brewers, it’s about getting their starting lineups in order, giving all key players some rest and minimizing anything that could jeopardize their playoff series.

The Mets are playing for a shot at the playoffs in a season where all expectations have been adjusted, abandoned, held on to, longed for and ultimately a flagpole erected. This team was special, but the Mets have two big questions heading into this series.

Will Francisco Lindor play? After leaving the game on Sept. 14 with lower back discomfort, Lindor appeared in just one game and admitted earlier this week that he may not play pain-free this season. Lindor’s bat in the lineup gives the Mets the best chance this weekend, but I also understand the conservative approach of saving him for the games that matter most, which in theory are Monday’s doubleheader games. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if he was in the lineup all weekend or even sat the entire time.

Who starts for both teams? Aside from today’s matchup between Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, neither team has announced a starter for the final two games of the series. The Mets will likely field their best available pitchers in these two games, but for the Brewers, a bullpen game or a minor league call-up probably makes sense for at least one of the two games.

It’s simple: The Mets need to win as many games as possible this weekend. If they can clinch their spot in the postseason this weekend (and the D-Backs and Braves play in or out themselves), perhaps Rob Manfred will come to his senses and take Monday’s doubleheader at Truist Park. It’s unlikely, but a boy can dream. But even if the Mets have to fly back to Atlanta, if they’re already in the playoffs, they can throw whoever they want in the doubleheader and finish the season stress-free.

Yeah right.

Friday, September 27: Sean Manaea vs. Frankie Montas at 8:10 p.m. ET on SNY

Manaea (2024): 178.0 IP, 183 K, 61 BB, 20 HR, 3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 83 ERA-

The Mets haven’t lost a Manaea start in six weeks, which was also the last time he didn’t pitch in the seventh inning, and have only lost two Manaea starts since June 20. He was their ace and this is an incredibly important game. There is no one who should start this game than Manaea.

Montas (2024): 146.2 IP, 142 K, 63 BB, 23 HR, 4.85 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 113 ERA-

The name Frankie Montas used to inspire fear among opposing fans, but 2024 Montas doesn’t live up to his reputation. In a truly disastrous start against the Diamondbacks on Sunday, he lasted only two and two-thirds of the innings and allowed eight earned runs, including three home runs. Montas isn’t exactly a star, but he’s the type of pitcher the Mets should and must beat tonight.

Saturday, September 28: TBD vs. TBD at 7:15 p.m. on FOX

Sunday, September 29: TBD vs. TBD at 3:05 p.m. ET on SNY

(I just want to note that this is both my 17th wedding anniversary and the 17th anniversary of John Maine’s one-hitter, and therefore the Mets are obligated to win.)