Minnesota Twins 2024 Offseason Preview: What’s next for the Twins after falling off the postseason roster?

2024 Season: Eliminated 4th in AL Central on September 27th

Let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 season, the questions the team will have to address this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.

Read more: 2024 MLB Offseason Preview: What’s Next for the White Sox, A’s, Cubs and More??

Things that went well

Thanks to a team effort, the Twins stayed in the postseason race until the final weekend of the season. This was a club that posted a winning record, although no position player posted an .800 OPS in at least 110 games and no pitcher posted an ERA below 3.50 in more than 100 innings. Rather, there were several twins who made useful contributions.

No one on the Twins’ roster will finish the season with more than 25 home runs, 75 RBI or 20 stolen bases, but Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton were the best offensive players and should each finish with an OPS in the upper range. 800s or low .900s. Four other Twins – Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana – will finish with an OPS in the mid-.700 range while playing more than 110 games.

The pitching staff, meanwhile, featured Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson, all of whom posted an ERA under 4.20 over at least 130 innings. Additionally, Griffin Jax proved to be the team’s most reliable backup, posting impressive percentages, ranking second on the club in saves, and leading the team in appearances and holds.

Things that went wrong

Minnesota stayed in contention in the postseason largely because its disappointments were all relatively minor. Royce Lewis continued to struggle to stay healthy as he was able to play in about half of the team’s games. The 25-year-old was a solid offensive player, but not quite as effective as he was in 58 games last year (.921 OPS). Edouard Julien was a bigger disappointment. After posting an .839 OPS in 109 games in 2023, Julien struggled offensively so much that he spent about two months of the summer in the minors.

Minnesota is far from the only team that has struggled to find a fifth starter, but that has certainly been an area of ​​disappointment this year. Louie Varland and Chris Paddack both had disappointing seasons after being inserted into the rotation in 2024. Youngsters David Festa and Zebby Matthews did their best to make an impact late in the season but didn’t have much success. The lack of rotation depth was particularly noticeable when the team was without Ryan down the stretch.

Overall, however, everything was going pretty well in Minnesota until the final weeks of the season. As of Sept. 5, the Twins were 74-62 with a 95.4% chance of qualifying for the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Then the Twins were defeated in a crucial series with the Royals, beginning a stretch in which Minnesota lost 6-14 from September 6-27. The Twins won just one of six series in that span, falling to 82-14. 78 with their loss to the Orioles on September 27, which eliminated them from the postseason. During that dismal stretch, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers and Julien all posted an OPS under .500, and Lopez, Festa and Woods Richardson each posted an ERA over 4.50 in at least three starts.

Off season plans

Most of the Twins’ roster remains under team control through 2025 and beyond, but the infield might be the least established part of the team. Jeffers is trapped behind the plate, Correa will play shortstop and Lewis can man the hot corner. Julien and former standout Brooks Lee are options for the second base role, and Lee could also be a good utilityman. First base is the only available spot as Santana enters free agency as a 38-year-old. Alex Kirilloff is a possible replacement, but he has struggled with injuries throughout his career and posted a low OPS of .653 in 57 games this year.

The outfield is anchored by Buxton in the middle and provides excellent options against right-handed pitchers Wallner and Larnach. Manuel Margot fits well as a right-handed hitter who can start against lefties, but he’s unlikely to pick up his $12 million option for 2025. The team will likely lose Max Kepler to free agency, but he’s not a great fit as another lefty alongside Wallner and Larnach. There are also young talent in the elite outfield (more on that later).

The rotation is in good shape as the Big Four of López, Ober, Ryan and Woods Richardson will all return. Festa, Matthews and Varland can compete for the final spot. The team’s key backup players – Jax, Jhoan Duran, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcala – will also all return. The most important lefty in the relief corps, Caleb Thielbar, is leaving in free agency and needs to be replaced.

Minnesota could use a superstar in the middle of its lineup, but those players are expensive and risky on the free-agent market. Pete Alonso, for example, would be a promising addition at first base, but may not fit the plan for long-term, sustained success. Still, the Twins signed Correa to a massive $200 million free-agent contract two years ago and may be ready to make another bold move.

Perspectives on the horizon

According to MLB Pipeline, Minnesota’s farm system has taken a big leap this season, ranking second in baseball in August.

Emmanuel Rodriguez might be the member of the group that best combines elite talent and MLB readiness. The 21-year-old rose through four minor league levels this year, finishing the season in Triple-A and showing incredible plate discipline along the way. He is considered a true five-tool player who could move to the Twins’ outfield in early 2025.

The organization has two more elite position player prospects who could reach the majors by the end of 2025. Walker Jenkins, the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, is 19 years old and has already reached Double-A. Some publications consider him a top-five prospect in baseball and he will patrol the Minnesota outfield alongside Rodriguez at some point. Luke Keaschall is another prospect from Minnesota who has an exciting mix of power, speed and base skills. In college he played primarily second base, but also gained experience at first base and center in the minors.

The ceiling for the Twins’ pitching prospects isn’t that high, but there are two starters in the minors who should contribute next season. Andrew Morris had a great 2024 (2.37 ERA, 133:32 K:BB ratio) in which he advanced all the way to Triple-A. He should make his debut with the Twins in early 2025. Marco Raya has an equally high ceiling but has been less consistent this year and will likely spend the first half of 2025 working on his control in the minors.

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Goals for 2025

The Twins are certainly not a dynasty, but they have had a solid winning streak with four postseason appearances in the last eight seasons. Still, this year’s team’s failure to pick up key wins in September or bounce back in October, especially after being well-positioned to do so, will be the talk of the entire offseason.

The organization could make minimal changes this winter and still have a good chance of winning the AL Central in 2025. But unless they make at least one significant move, the Twins will likely continue to lag behind the American League powerhouses. The front office has to decide if being good is good enough rather than actually trying to get to the World Series.

2024 MLB Playoffs Tracker: Watch the postseason picture come into focus

Fantasy focus

Fantasy managers will initially target the Twins’ starting pitchers on draft day. Ryan, Ober and López will all be coveted as No. 2 mixed league starters, with Ryan and López having the potential to be viewed as fantasy aces by some managers. Assuming he stays in the closer role, Duran will continue to be a valuable player in the 2025 draft.

Minnesota’s best hitters are considered mid-round picks, including Correa, Wallner and Buxton. Lewis is the Twins’ only position player who could jump into the early rounds as managers dream of his potential to stay healthy and put up game-changing numbers over a full season.