Mets-Braves doubleheader: How did we get here? Who will pitch? And what are the possible outcomes?

Behold the chaos unleashed.

On Monday, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will play a doubleheader to determine not only their own playoff fate, but the fate of the Arizona Diamondbacks as well. Rain from Hurricane Helene wiped out two games between Atlanta and New York last week in what should have been a monumental three-game showdown. Instead, the last two games were blowouts, leaving the entire National League wild card picture hanging in the balance.

There was a scenario that would have rendered such makeup games statistically invalid, which would likely have led to their cancellation. Instead, there was a loss in Atlanta, combined with wins by New York and Arizona in the finals planned The matchday on Sunday meant that all three teams were practically level in the table. And so the strangest scenario – a season-defining double bill between Game 162 on Sunday and Game 1 of the Wild Card Round on Tuesday – has become a reality.

Let’s put an end to the madness and preview what’s sure to be an unforgettable day of baseball.

Subscribe Baseball Bar B Cast To Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

How did we get here?

Mother Nature is the easy answer. The rain in Georgia last week made Truist Park unplayable. The league could have forced the Braves and Mets to play at a neutral site, but chose not to. Certainly the league had hoped that the results of the final weekend of play would make Monday’s doubleheader game unnecessary. Had the Diamondbacks not stormed back for 11 runs on Sunday after losing early to the Padres, MLB’s wish would have come true. Arizona would have been eliminated with a loss, sending New York and Atlanta into the October tournament.

A Braves win on Sunday would have created perhaps the most unsavory scenario, in which Atlanta would have secured a wild-card spot but would still have had to play New York twice on Monday because the Mets would have had to win both games to clinch the victory secure and eliminate the D-Backs.

Luckily it didn’t turn out that way. Nevertheless, we are left with plenty of chaos.

What scenarios are playing out?

There are three possible outcomes: The Mets could sweep, the Braves could sweep, or the two clubs could split the doubleheader.

If a team wins both games on Monday, that club will be in the playoff field alongside Arizona, and the loser of the doubleheader will travel home for the winter. A split between New York and Atlanta would send both teams into the playoffs and route the Diamondbacks, even though all three teams had identical records. That’s because both the Mets and Braves have a tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks.

If the Mets and Braves split the doubleheader, Atlanta would be the No. 5 seed and New York would be the No. 6 seed, based on Atlanta’s win in the season series between the two. The Braves would then travel to San Diego to face the Padres, while the Mets would return to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.

If a team goes 2-0 on Monday, that club, be it New York or Atlanta, would travel to San Diego as a No. 5 seed, while Arizona would play Milwaukee as a No. 6 seed in a rematch of the Wild from last year’s card round .

In other words:

• Atlanta comes in with a win. The Braves can only be the No. 5 seed.

• new York comes in with a win. If the Mets win on a Monday, they are a No. 6 seed. If they win both, they are a No. 5 seed.

• Arizona comes in if either Atlanta or New York sweep the doubleheader. The D-Backs can only be the No. 6 seed.

Doesn’t that create bizarre incentives?

Yes. The winner of Game 1 on Monday secures a spot in the playoffs with this win, making Game 2 irrelevant for this team. Conversely, the team that loses Game 1 will face a win-or-go-home situation in Game 2.

This means that the task of the winner of Game 1 would be to (1) lose Game 2 as quickly as possible and (2) rely on the least important group of available players to do so. And that’s understandable, considering all of this involves an incredible amount of travel and zero days off between this doubleheader and the start of the playoffs on Tuesday.

For example, if the Mets win Game 1, it would make no sense for them to use flame-throwing closer Edwin Díaz in Game 2. This would put more pressure on him for a playoff game on Tuesday. And much like what can happen on a road trip during the regular season, there’s a chance that the Game 1 winner’s batters will sub out early and often to throw Game 2 into a tailspin.

Who will pitch?

The Braves have repeatedly said that likely NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale will only start in one elimination game. Therefore, Atlanta plans to use Spencer Wechselbach in the opening game and only use Sale in Game 2 if they lose Game 1. Of course, the Braves would love to eliminate their division rivals – and vice versa – but spite is less motivating or important than, you know, ejecting Chris Sale in Game 1 of a playoff series.

The Mets will likely employ a similar strategy, with backend starter Tylor Megill likely to start Game 1 and frontline hurler Luis Severino waiting in the wings for Game 2 if needed. That makes a showdown between Sale and Severino extremely unlikely.

Unfortunately, all of these factors represent a huge disadvantage for the Diamondbacks, who will spend Monday sitting in front of the TV waiting and hoping.

For the rest of us, it means a bonus day of high-stakes baseball, one with some of the most bizarre possible outcomes in recent memory.