Luis Severino, Cristopher Sanchez; Breaking down the Game 2 pitching matchup

After the New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Saturday, the page quickly turned on Sunday for the all-important Game 2. One win and the Mets go home Citi Field holds a commanding 2-0 lead in a five-game series. Who will each team turn to on the mound in high-risk competition?

Luis Severino. Photo by Jovanny Hernandez

Luis Severino

After playing Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Luis Severino gets the nod for Game 2 of the NLDS. It was by no means an easy outing against the Brewers for Severino, who settled in after allowing two runs in the first inning and two runs in the fourth inning and ended up throwing 105 pitches over six frames.

Severino has established himself as interchangeable Sean Manaea as the Mets’ No. 1 starter this year. After a terrible 2023, Severino responded in 2024 with one of the better seasons of his career. He started 31 games and pitched 182 innings; the most he has thrown since 2018. Severino posted a 3.91 ERA and 3.88 xERA. He was everything the Mets could have wanted when they signed him to a one-year, $13 million deal.

In 2024, Severino has managed to induce soft contact (88th percentile average exit velocity and 75th percentile hard hit rate) on the ground (72nd percentile ground ball rate). He also did a good job when it came to non-walk rate issues, posting a 7.9% walk rate (8.4% is league average).

For comparison, the Phillies rank about 10th in the majors in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. They also scored the sixth-most ground balls in the league this year. The Phillies have also done a good job with their walks, as they have the seventh-most walks in the league this year.

When it comes to platoon distribution, Severino performs better against right-handers (.615 OPS). This holds true for his career as well, reflecting the .615 OPS he allowed this season. Interestingly, despite having stronger left-handed hitters, the Phillies are in the middle of the pack when it comes to hitting right-handed pitchers in 2024. Notably, they have a wRC+ of 104, which ranks 13th in the major leagues. Going even further and looking after the All-Star break, the Phillies are 19th in the majors with a slightly below average 98 wRC+.

Severino made two starts against Philadelphia this year. In those two starts, he allowed six runs in 12 innings (4.50 ERA). In each of his starts against Philadelphia (both in September; one home and one away), Severino went six innings and allowed three runs in each start.

Cristopher Sanchez. Mandatory attribution: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Cristopher Sanchez

In the meantime, the Phillies will turn to a starter who had a breakout year in 2024. Cristopher Sanchez pitched 181 2/3 innings and posted a 3.32 ERA and 3.51 xERA. The 27-year-old posted career highs in virtually every statistical category and was selected to his first career All-Star Game. He was certainly a revelation for the Phillies, who won the National League East.

In 2024, Sánchez threw to contact (low strikeout rate) and did not walk often (84th percentile walk rate). Like Severino, the left-handed Sánchez receives a lot of ground balls (95th percentile) and doesn’t allow hard contact (84th percentile average exit velocity and 82nd percentile hard hit rate). Despite all of this, Sánchez’s expected batting average was way down in the league’s 24th percentile.

By far the biggest weapon for the 2024 All-Star is his rotation. Sánchez’s changeup, which he throws nearly 36% of the time, has a batting average (BA) of .177 and an expected BA (xBA) of .178. Among 2,533 qualified pitch types thrown by pitchers in 2024, Sánchez’s changeup has the 12th-best run value in the major leagues.

For comparison, there are three Mets hitters who have negative run value against the changeup this season; Harrison Bader (negative-four), Tyrone Taylor (negative-two) and Francisco Alvarez (negative-one). All others have a positive run value against the pitch type Mark Vientos Leading the way with a plus-five run score and a stunning .325 batting average against pitch type. Brandon Nimmo, Starling MarteAnd JD Martinez all have a run value of plus four against the change. The bottom line is that the Mets handled the change well overall.

As far as platoon distribution goes, Sánchez is particularly good against both lefties and righties, but his OPS is certainly better against lefties than righties; .612 versus .672. Additionally, right-handed hitters are batting .261 against Sánchez this season. Good news for the Met is not only that they are predominantly right-handed, but that they have also destroyed left-handed hitting altogether this year. The Mets rank third in the major leagues with a 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.

One of the most fascinating aspects of Sánchez’s season is how different his home and away splits are. You’re so strict, Phillies manager Rob Thomson made the decision to throw him in Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park instead of Game 3 on the road. At home this year, Sánchez is allowing a miniscule batting average of .222 and an OPS of .544. Meanwhile, the OPS on the road rises to .813. Overall, the left-handed starter has a 7-3 record with a 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season.

Finally, Sánchez threw the second-most innings of his career against New York of any team in the major leagues. Through 37 1/3 innings, he has a 2-2 record and a 3.62 ERA. The Mets have a team batting average of .215 and an OPS of .679 against Sánchez overall. Specifically, Sánchez has thrown 17 2/3 innings against the Mets in 2024, yielding 16 hits and nine walks with a 3.06 ERA and 19 strikeouts.

Final thoughts

On the surface, the pitching matchup doesn’t appear to be as biased toward Philadelphia as the traditional numbers would suggest. The area in which Severino excels; Ground ball quota, limiting hard contact and avoiding walk batters is at odds with what the Phillies offense has done this season. Not to mention, Philadelphia has faltered against right-handed hitters who throw down the stretch. Granted, Severino has made two starts against the Phillies this year and posted a not-so-great 4.50 ERA less than a month ago.

As for the Phillies, Sánchez is one of the best home pitchers in the major leagues this season and has had above-average results against the Mets in the past. However, New York has done very well against left-handed pitching this season and has fared quite well against the young Phillies All-Star’s best pitcher.

Regardless of all that, a win in Game 2 would be huge for New York. They would return to Citi Field for the first time since their regular season series against the Phillies on September 22nd.