Look of the day for Tuesday, October 1st: Sevy has a bevy of hits

We’re back with another edition of our Look of the Day. When we last spoke, Corbin Burnes’ earned runs gave us the eighth winner of our last 10 picks. Let’s move on to our favorite bet for Tuesday’s MLB playoffs.

Look of the Day: Luis Severino over 4.5 hits allowed (-115 DraftKings)

The New York Mets take on the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 1 of their National League Wild Card series, and we’re looking for Severino to go through his hits allowed in this game.

Severino is not starting October in top form. The Mets right-hander has given up at least three earned runs in three consecutive starts and has given up at least five hits in 10 of his last 12 appearances.

Aside from his poor form of late, Severino has also had problems on the road all season. The veteran has a 5.00 ERA, .255 opponent batting average and .300 opponent BAPIP in road games this year. He has exceeded that limit in five of his last six road starts.

The Brewers aren’t going into the playoffs with flying colors, but they’ve hit Severino hard over the years. In 48 combined plate appearances against Severino, current Brewers hitters are batting .333 with a .459 xSLG and an average exit velocity of 93.4 mph.

Milwaukee should be able to jump on Severino early and help us cash this ticket.