Kirk is developing in the Atlantic as hurricane season intensifies

This system should gradually organize as it drifts north-northwest over the next few days, crossing sea surface temperatures into the mid-80s. With a chance of further development of 40 percent, questions remain unanswered because the forecast models are divided.

One unknown is what impact an approaching trough and surface cold front will have on the system’s strength and trajectory later this week. That will depend on how low the tropical system forms and strengthens ahead of the border to combat the approaching front.

Regardless, it looks like the Gulf Coast could expect heavy tropical rains at least later this weekend and into next week, which could cause major problems. Florida is currently the most likely destination, but the forecast could well change.

Kirk is ahead of schedule

Kirk, the 11th named storm of the season, is expected to become the seventh hurricane by midweek, a milestone not typically reached until mid-November – a testament to how exceptionally warm waters have quickly pushed tropical systems to reach hurricane status when the Wind shear is minimal. This was the case with Helene, which quickly accelerated twofold over its life cycle, reaching a speed of at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours.

The good news is that Kirk should remain at sea and have no direct impact on U.S. coasts.

Since six hurricanes have already formed, the hurricane season is almost three weeks above the climatological average of the previous 30 years. All of these fresh tropical systems have also catapulted the current season back to an above-average pace in terms of named storms at this point in the season. The average date for the 11th named storm is October 2nd, making Kirk occur a few days earlier.

Isaac and Joyce

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Hurricane Isaac was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday as it approaches Iceland or the United Kingdom this weekend, and tropical depression Joyce will most likely be downgraded further as both remain essentially fish storms.

Regardless, the fifth and final system is a disturbance tracking Kirk just off the African coast. With an 80 percent chance of developing over the next week, this low pressure area will slowly move westward over the main developing region and could become a low pressure area over the next few days.

October is typically the third most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, producing an average of two named storms, one of which develops into a hurricane. With the continued shift to La Niña and generally reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, all signs point to a very active month.

Helene

Helene’s death toll rose to 107 across the southeast on Monday afternoon. Much of the South, including parts of Appalachia and Florida’s Gulf Coast, is continuing cleanup efforts after severe flooding devastated cities and infrastructure.

Unfortunately, the rain isn’t over yet: Due to the waning energy from the remnants of Helene, a slight to moderate flooding risk remains for portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains, spanning western North Carolina, Virginia, and portions of West Virginia through tonight .

Heavy rainfall is not expected, but with the ground already saturated in these hardest-hit regions, one to two centimeters of rain will certainly be enough to continue flooding the areas until Helene’s remnants finally give up on Tuesday.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.