This was supposed to be the “Year of the Rookie” for wide receivers in fantasy football. The 2024 NFL Draft was historically offensive-heavy, and fantasy managers took notice.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was usually drafted in the second round (in some leagues he even made it to the late first round), and Malik Nabers was drafted as a top-24 wideout. The excitement was greater than ever.
But Week 1 took the wind out of these players’ sails. Managers are worried about their high draft picks, and suddenly the discussion about who the best rookie wide receiver is for the 2024 fantasy football season is wide open.
And it wasn’t all bad either. Xavier Worthy was incredibly impressive on opening night for the Kansas City Chiefs and Brian Thomas Jr. looked great for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But I want to tell you that the leading scorer is not going to be Harrison or Nabers. It’s not even going to be Worthy or Thomas. It’s going to be Keon Coleman of the Buffalo Bills.
I’ll go on record saying that all the memes surrounding Marvin Harrison Jr.’s struggles make him a great candidate for a cheap buy, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s the best choice to lead rookies. Kyler Murray has traditionally had a hard time producing a true fantasy star wideout. DeAndre Hopkins is the only Cardinal to even reach 1,000 yards in a single season in 2020. Harrison should rebound, but his potential still seems limited.
Malik Nabers looked great in his debut, but the New York Giants did not. Daniel Jones was as bad as advertised, and this offense has problems that Jones or backup Drew Lock cannot fix. Nabers’ 7 targets were closer to Devin Singletary (5) than to team leader Wan’Dale Robinson (12).
Nabers’ volume of play should increase, but efficiency and plays will continue to be a major problem.
Xavier Worthy’s obvious downside is that Hollywood Brown will return at some point and he could drop as low as fourth in the Chiefs’ pass receiver rankings (behind Brown, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce). In fact, he only had 3 targets and 1 rushing attempt in this impressive debut.
Thomas also didn’t have a large number of targets and simply has too much competition in his offense. With his 4 targets, he was tied with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram and had only 1 more than Travis Etienne and Gabe Davis.
So if I’m worried about players who only played 4 or 5 times in Week 1, why am I so excited about Keon Coleman’s 4 catches for 51 yards on 5 attempts in his Buffalo Bills debut?
He is the sole team leader with those 5 targets – no one else on the Bills offense had more than 3. He accounted for 22% of the team’s total targets and 27.7% of the team’s air yards, both of which are higher than any of the four players listed above.
Coleman also played 45 snaps — 9 more than the Bills’ next-best WR (Mack Hollins with 36) and 12 more than third-place Khalil Shakir. Neither Curtis Samuel nor Marquez Valdes-Scantling played more than 20.
Coleman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and that’s a golden opportunity for fantasy production.
Yes, Buffalo opened the season very run-heavy. But they also started the year against an Arizona Cardinals defense that ranked 32nd in run defense according to PFF in 2023 with an abysmal 38.2 rating (while no other team finished worse than 50.0). The matchup was the perfect opportunity to pull out a run-heavy win. Josh Allen attempted just 23 passes, while his average last year was 34.1.
Allen is still No. 7 at FanDuel Sportsbook for the NFL lead in passing yards in the regular season, and at +1100 there isn’t much difference between his implied probability (8.3%) and even third-place Patrick Mahomes (11.1% at +800). He’s also No. 2 in odds for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns and No. 2 in MVP odds.
So here we have an elite quarterback who is statistically expected to be one of the most productive in the league. His clear WR1 is obviously going to be a great fantasy asset and you should trade him immediately if you can, right?
That’s right. Buy Keon Coleman now before it’s too late.
