Joker 2 and the Uphill Battle: October box office preview

This weekend we will know whether October will be a success or a bust. “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.), a pre-marketing production worth more than $190 million, opens in theaters worldwide Friday, although there are real concerns: It may not come close to the original from 2019.

What could go wrong with Joaquin Phoenix returning in the role that won him an Oscar, Lady Gaga coming in with a musical twist, and Todd Phillips taking over to direct?

“Joker” had the advantage of a more modest budget — $75 million plus marketing — but in 2019 its foreign business was booming, with foreign sales accounting for 69 percent of its worldwide gross of nearly $1.1 billion. Nowadays most studio titles gross around 50-50 domestically and internationally.

And while “Joker” won the Golden Lion at the 2019 Venice Film Festival, the Lido premiere of “Folie à Deux” last month was met with a muted response. (To be fair, “Joker” only had a Metacritic score of 59; the sequel is at 51, not much lower.)

No one expects Joker: Folie à Deux to come close to the original’s $96 million debut (closer to $110 million when adjusted). The industry consensus is closer to $55 million to $60 million, but some sources suggest that not even a $50 million opening is guaranteed.

This number will determine the total for the month. The other main competitor is “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony), which has an opening price of $80 million to $120 million, but will only do one week of sales for an Oct. 25 release.

The month is expected to easily surpass last year’s $475 million saved by “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” (nearly a third of that total). This will make October the third consecutive month to outperform the same month last year, a much-needed turnaround.

September totaled just under $600 million, the best month since 2019, but attendance was the lowest on record for September. Thanks to “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) for providing over 40 percent of the total at $251 million.

This reduced the year-to-date decline from 2023 to 11 percent, but “Transformers One” (Paramount) came in significantly lower than expected at $40 million. For October, the worst-case scenario is about $575 million, which should limit the decline to just over 10 percent by 2024.

That would be enough to bring the full year to $8 billion, still below 2023’s $9.1 billion total. But a weak “Folie à Deux” could suggest that other expected late releases – including “Wicked” (Universal) and “Gladiator II” (Paramount) in November — may not be enough.

The odds are good for “Venom: The Last Dance” after “Deadpool & Wolverine” proved that the Marvel fan base is alive and well. The third “Venom” also comes after the 2021 sequel “Let There Be Carnage,” which grossed $90 million and a domestic total of $213 million. This should provide an upswing at the end of the month.

In between, only a single film is guaranteed to gross more than $10 million. That’s “Smile 2” (Paramount), which opens October 18 as the biggest Halloween horror release of the year. The R-rated sequel should gross at least $20 million.

Other notable titles include the expansion of “Saturday Night” (Sony), “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment), the animated film “Piece by Piece” (Focus), “My Hero Academia: You’re Next” (Toho), and “Terrifier 3” (Cineverse) on October 11th and “Conclave” (Focus) on October 25th, all in theaters. None are expected to amass more than $25 million during the month.

Of the holdovers, the just-opened “Wild Robot” (Universal) will make the biggest contribution, perhaps another $60 million. Others switch to either home viewing or small income.

The trend of major studio releases continuing this month continues. There are four of them, including the Saturday Night expansion. In 2019 there were nine. A decline in production remains a key factor in disappointing gross revenues.

Anything that helps movie theaters reach $8 billion is positive, but box office predictions have become something of a joke game. If the audience likes Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine or Despicable Me 4, then Really I like it and achieve results that exceed all expectations. And if they don’t like “Furiosa”, “Transformers One” or “The First Omen”, they also express their displeasure.