The Democratic candidate for North Carolina Attorney General has secured the support of younger and urban voters, giving him a lead in the race, according to a new WRAL News poll.
Two North Carolina congressmen are running for the state-level seat: Democrat Jeff Jackson and Republican Dan Bishop. The seat is vacant because Attorney General Josh Stein, a Democrat, is running for governor.
Forty-three percent of likely November voters support Jackson and 36 percent support Bishop, with 21 percent undecided, according to the poll of 676 likely voters released Tuesday. The gap has widened significantly since March, when an earlier WRAL News poll showed Jackson leading Bishop 41 percent to 40 percent.
The latest poll, conducted in conjunction with independent pollster SurveyUSA between September 4 and 7, produced a credibility interval of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. A credibility interval is similar to a margin of error, but takes more factors into account and is considered by some pollsters to be a more accurate measure of statistical certainty.
Because of the large number of undecided voters, the outcome of the race is more difficult to predict than usual, said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University. The same WRAL poll found that 5 percent of respondents are undecided in the presidential race and 11 percent in the gubernatorial race between Stein and Republican candidate Mark Robinson, the state’s incumbent lieutenant governor.
“One in five voters say, ‘I just don’t know,'” Cooper said. “We just don’t know.”
However, poll results since March show that there have been significant shifts in support among certain voting blocs.
Among 18- to 49-year-olds, for example, Jackson now leads by 14 percentage points (46% to 32%), up from 2 percentage points behind Bishop in March. Among all male voters, Jackson is now tied with Bishop at 41% each, up from 10 points behind Bishop in March. Jackson has also increased his lead among black voters, leading Bishop by 80% to 11%, up from 59% to 11% in March.
Young voters and black voters tend to vote Democratic, so Jackson’s support among those groups is not surprising, said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College. Bitzer said Jackson’s support among men – of all ages and races – is what makes him special.
Voters ages 18 to 49 and black voters “are a natural part of this consolidation effect,” Bitzer said in an email. “What’s really interesting is the male electorate: Normally, that’s a core of the Republican electorate, as with the gender gap. That Jackson is tied with Bishop among men is pretty remarkable at this point.”
These shifts likely helped Jackson take the lead in urban areas, where turnout is key to Democratic success in statewide elections. Jackson cut into Bishop’s lead in both Greensboro and Charlotte.
In Charlotte, a district both men represent in Congress, Jackson leads by 5 percentage points (42%-37%), after trailing by one percentage point in March (40%-39%). In Greensboro, Jackson leads by 4 percentage points (39%-35%), after trailing by 6 points in March. Jackson also increased his lead in Raleigh by 23 points, after trailing by just 6 points in March.
Bishop has since opened up a lead in the South and coastal North Carolina. The Republican now has a 16 percentage point lead (48%-32%), up from a one percentage point lead (42%-41%) in those regions in March.
“Jackson is gaining ground,” Cooper said. “Part, maybe most, of that is probably because a (Kamala) Harris wave lifts all Democratic boats.”
According to the WRAL News poll, the vice president is three percentage points ahead of Republican Donald Trump – an improvement for Democrats since March, when Trump had a five percentage point lead over President Joe Biden, according to a WRAL poll.
Jackson’s lead over Bishop is smaller than Stein’s 14-point lead over Robinson in the race for governor, but larger than Mo Green’s 2-point lead over Michelle Morrow in the race for North Carolina Secretary of Education.
That could be because Jackson hasn’t spent nearly as much on campaign ads as Stein — but his name is probably more well-known than Green, who has never held elected office. Jackson, a former congressman, has built a following in the Charlotte area and on social media.
Cooper said it’s very possible that survey respondents either know who Jackson is or know someone who has seen one of his many videos on the social media platform TikTok.
“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say (Jackson’s social media strategy) is working,” Cooper said.
