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Invest 91L could develop into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico this week

MIAMI – The likelihood continues to increase that a tropical disturbance swirling over the Gulf of Mexico will develop into at least a tropical depression, if not Tropical Storm Francine, this week as we approach the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the system the designation Invest 91L on Saturday, allowing the agency to run additional computer models to calculate the storm’s potential development and track.

The system spent more than a week traveling across the Atlantic as a tropical wave, clinging to a disorganized collection of showers and thunderstorms as it struggled to find favorable conditions for further development.

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Invest 91L is likely to become a tropical depression this week

This graphic shows the chances of a tropical disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico.
(FOX Weather)

The NHC said current satellite wind data show Invest 91L is circling over the Bay of Campeche and continuing to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it interacts with a frontal boundary.

It is expected that Invest 91L will continue to drift slowly northward over the next few days and that environmental conditions will then become more favorable for development.

“A tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas during mid-week,” the NHC said.

As of Sunday morning, Invest 91L has a high chance of developing in the next few days.

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Invest 92L is slowly gaining traction

A low-pressure system in the central Atlantic that had just reached tropical dimensions has recovered, at least according to the long-term development prospects given by the NHC.

This chart shows the latest from Invest 92L.
(FOX Weather)

The NHC said the showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 92L over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of gradual development.

Environmental conditions appear to favor further development of Invest 92L. As the system circles over the Central Atlantic at the start of the new work week and then moves generally westward for the remainder of the week, a tropical depression could form.

The NHC gives Invest 92L a medium development chance.

Third area to be observed in the Far Eastern Atlantic

The NHC removed storms from its watch list on Friday, only to add new ones back on Saturday. A third area to watch now is a low-pressure system located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape Verde, the NHC said.

This graphic shows the recent tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic.
(FOX Weather)

The NHC said this tropical disturbance is expected to move little over the next few days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early in the new work week.

Environmental conditions are likely to be favorable for further development and a tropical depression could form in the middle or second half of next week.

The NHC gives this tropical disturbance a medium probability of developing over the next week.

By Jasper

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