How will Phillies approach NLDS vs. Mets? Key to an encounter with known enemies

Eleven days ago, the Phillies had the opportunity to celebrate in the visitors’ clubhouse at Citi Field. All they had to do was win one game in two days. They could have destroyed the room. But none of the clubhouse staff ever hung plastic — even rolled up — on the walls to prepare it. You have tempted fate.

The Phillies never spread champagne around the room. A day later, they won the National League East at home. Those games at Citi Field meant more to the Mets as they fought for their postseason life. New York has the best record in baseball since June 1, good enough to push into the October tournament, and now baseball must face the unthinkable.

The Phillies and Mets will play a postseason series.

These two rivals, 111 miles apart and prone to chaotic baseball, have never faced each other in the playoffs. The Mets, who pulled off an incredible series triumph over Milwaukee, are in high demand. But by winning the NL East, the Phillies secured the right to play them in a five-game series with home-field advantage.

There will be drama. The National League Division Series begins Saturday afternoon. Here are some initial thoughts on the matchup.

Role players are becoming more important

How will the Phillies use their outfielders? Austin Hays is expected to start against lefties. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

The Phillies will face a lefty in Game 3 (Sean Manaea) and likely Game 4 (Jose Quintana). As a team, the Phillies had an OPS of .783 against lefties. That was the fourth-best mark in baseball.

But in order to optimize the lineup against lefties, it could force manager Rob Thomson to bench two of his younger starters. Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott played little against lefties down the stretch. Thomson said he expects Austin Hays, who has been sidelined with hamstring, kidney and back problems since being acquired by the Phillies in July, to be in the lineup when there is a left-hander on the mound. He would be in left field. The biggest choice in Game 1, likely against righty Tylor Megill, is whether Hays plays left field with Marsh in center – or whether Johan Rojas plays center with Marsh in left. With Zack Wheeler on the mound, it’s a good bet Rojas will be at center.

The decision at second base could be more difficult in these games against a lefty starter. But Edmundo Sosa was exceptional against lefties all season, hitting .284/.347/.514. How would Thomson handle second base against a team with lefty starters?

“I don’t know,” Thomson said earlier this week. “It depends on the matches and how they stack up against our boys. So I don’t know. … Actually, everyone is in the game.”

There is a way to play all angles here. While the Mets have three potential left-handed starters in Quintana, Manaea and David Peterson, they lack lefties in their bullpen. The Phillies went 8 of 16 with two home runs against Danny Young, New York’s only left-handed reliever. Maybe the Mets will move Peterson, who pitched well against the Phillies this season, to the bullpen for the entire series. But he wouldn’t be used to do the work of a traditional helper.

So if the Mets elevate their lefty starter, Thomson can easily use Marsh and Stott. The Phillies plan to use 14 batters, creating different mix-and-match opportunities within a game.

Thomson has signaled he is more willing to provide a replacement.

Starter for game 2

Cristopher Sánchez posted a 3.06 ERA in 17 2/3 innings against the Mets this season. (Kyle Ross/USA Today)

There is evidence that the Phillies intend to use lefty Cristopher Sánchez in Game 2 of the NLDS. The fact that they didn’t commit to Aaron Nola over the course of the week is telling. But Thomson has not confirmed this decision; Sánchez was excused from training on Tuesday to be with his wife and newborn baby. He returned Wednesday to play catch and keep his arm moving.

“I’m not sure what I’m going to do yet,” Thomson said earlier this week.

Sánchez has been far better at home this season – a 2.21 ERA versus a 5.02 ERA on the road. His seven highest swinging-strike totals came in home starts.

New York has hit lefties (.769 OPS) almost as well as the Phillies. By placing Sánchez at second, the Phillies would prefer Aaron Nola in Game 3 at Citi Field, with Ranger Suárez behind him in a Game 4. The right-handed and left-handed split is as important a factor as Sánchez’s home split.

But Sánchez has seemed increasingly comfortable at home — including a strong start in September at Citizens Bank Park against the Mets.

“With Nola you have a guy who is calm and cool,” Thomson said. “It doesn’t matter where he pitches. So I think a lot of those things are at play. They are things you can talk about. We will try to reach a joint decision.”

The regular season is… just that

Twenty-one days ago, Quintana pitched seven scoreless innings against the Phillies. He had a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings against the Phillies this season.

But in that September start, which lasted seven innings, Quintana faced a lineup that included Buddy Kennedy at third base, Weston Wilson in left field and Stott at second base. The Phillies didn’t have three of their better hitters against lefties – Alec Bohm, Sosa and Hays. (Hays, better suited as a platoon player, hit .354/.405/.537 in 90 plate appearances against lefties this season.) In May, the Phillies had Whit Merrifield at second base with Marsh in left and Cristian Pache in the middle against Quintana.

Things have changed.

Taijuan Walker, who is not expected to be on the NLDS roster, faced more than twice as many Mets hitters (65) as Wheeler (28). The Mets, bolstered by some fringe additions to the roster, are also a different team. Some trends no longer apply.

Heaters for Schwarber

But some maybe. The Mets kept Kyle Schwarber in check all season; He hit .216/.310/.333 in 58 plate appearances with 17 strikeouts and one home run. But the way they did it was unusual. New York pitchers hit Schwarber with fastballs.

Of the teams Schwarber faced this season, only Baltimore and Milwaukee threw him a higher percentage of warmups. He saw 64 percent fastballs from Mets pitchers. He went 6-of-30 with nine strikeouts against them. That .367 slugging percentage paled in comparison to his season mark against fastballs — .525 — from the 28 other teams. The Mets often targeted fastballs above the strike zone. Schwarber had difficulty giving up these places, especially in September.

An Alonso weakness in sight

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso reached base 25 times in 13 games against the Phillies this year. He’s a dangerous power threat in the middle of New York’s lineup and provided the signature momentum of his career to catapult the Mets into this NLDS. But he has been more prone to speed this season, a trend the Phillies could exploit.

Alonso recorded a higher percentage of fastballs at 95 mph or greater (20.1 percent) this season than before. He hit just .322 against 95+ fastballs.

Last year he hit .543 against those fastballs.

That wasn’t an aberration. He hit .481 in 2022 against 95-plus and .518 in 2021. The Phillies have the pitchers to ply him with higher velocity stuff. Last postseason, Phillies pitchers averaged 95.3 miles per hour with their fastballs. This number could rise even higher in 2024.

The last jug

It has been more than three months since Spencer Turnbull appeared in a major league game, and although the Phillies have a roster open for a long man, Turnbull was considered a long shot. The Phillies have continued to pay attention to his progress. He will continue to participate in a throwing program. Should an injury occur this October, Turnbull could enter the rotation and try to get through an opposing lineup at one point.

But after Turnbull delivered a scrimmage this week, Thomson described the outing as “unpredictable”. He was blunt about the 32-year-old’s current condition.

“In my opinion he still needs a bit of work,” Thomson said. “But you never know.”

The Phillies had discussed various scenarios for the 12th pitcher, someone who would only be needed in a five-game series if there was a blowout or a long extra-inning game. Had Milwaukee advanced, it could have been left-hander Kolby Allard. But New York is right-leaning, so rookie right-hander Max Lazar has a great chance of making the NLDS roster.

Random thoughts

José Alvarado had a 2.89 ERA over 10 appearances in September after returning from the suspended list. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

• José Buttó is New York’s best right-handed hitter playing against lefties; he held them to an OPS of .500 during the season. Then, in Game 3 against Milwaukee, he gave up back-to-back homers to lefties. With less than two days of rest, he was hardly used this season.

• If the Mets are looking for a left-handed hitter to neutralize Schwarber late in games, it might be Peterson. Schwarber is 1 of 16 with 10 strikeouts against Peterson. But Bryce Harper beat the left-hander, going 8 for 19 with a double, a home run and three walks.

• Alonso has destroyed Nola over the years. He hit .320/.370/.680 with five home runs in 54 plate appearances. But Nola has kept Francisco Lindor in check with a .212/.278/.273 line in 36 plate appearances.

• What role will José Alvarado play in this series? Get Brandon Nimmo out. Nimmo is New York’s only regular left-handed hitter. He is 1 for 9 with a double, five strikeouts and a walk against Alvarado.

• Given this lineup dynamic, the Phillies’ right guards will be crucial in this series. Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering must be sharp.

• Nick Castellanos made the first pitch 51 percent of the time this season. Only Corey Seager of Texas had a higher first-pitch swing rate in baseball. In plate appearances against the Mets, Castellanos’ rate was even higher – 59 percent.

That will probably be in a scouting report.

• The grainy stuff is fun. Maybe that’s all that matters: Wheeler can pitch twice in a five-game series – with both starts coming at home.

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(Top photo of Kyle Schwarber and Francisco Lindor: Bill Streicher / USA Today)