Hassan Nasrallah is dead: This is how Israel's war in Lebanon changes

The airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 27 represents a decisive turning point after more than 11 months of war and has the potential to thwart Iran’s plans and weaken Hezbollah. Here are five ways the strike could impact the war and the region.

Iran’s most experienced ally in its sights

Hassan Nasrallah was Iran’s most experienced ally in the region. The Hezbollah leader was key to Iran’s plans in the region for decades. In recent years he had become even more powerful. After the October 7 attack, Iran attempted to launch a multi-front war against Israel. The murdered terrorist leader was involved in waging this war.

Nasrallah had emerged as the leading leader of Iran’s numerous proxies. He often received Iranian officials and also invited representatives of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to Lebanon to coordinate their attacks against the Jewish state. He also tried to rally the Houthis in Yemen to threaten Israel, and he coordinated with Iraqi militias.

The Hezbollah leader had worked with other key Iranian-backed leaders in the region; Many of them have been killed in Iran in recent years. These include Qasem Soleimani of the IRGC and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. With these critical leaders out of the picture, Nasrallah increasingly followed in their footsteps. Now these shoes are empty again.

Hezbollah in disarray

Hezbollah is in turmoil and has suffered numerous leadership losses in recent days. On September 20, the commanders of the Radwan forces were killed. This meant the loss of sixteen key leaders of the terrorist group. In the following days it also lost the head of its drone unit. The loss of Hassan Nasrallah essentially decapitated the entire organization. It is unclear whether the Lebanon-based terrorist organization was prepared for this scenario.

A VEHICLE containing the coffin of a commander of Iraq’s armed group Ktaeb Hezbollah, who was killed in Damascus on Friday in what the militia described as a “Zionist attack,” is seen during a funeral in Baghdad on Sunday. (Source: THAIER AL-SUDANI/REUTERS)

Hezbollah still has a large amount of weapons, including rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and precision-guided munitions. However, without a clear chain of command or leadership, there will be chaos and disorder. Since the pagers exploded on September 17, the group has struggled to respond to Israel’s attacks. She suffered one unprecedented blow after another; This throws the terrorist group off balance.

Hezbollah and Iran now know that Israel is serious

Israel’s willingness to call Hezbollah’s bluff and go all out with airstrikes in Beirut shows how serious Israel is about achieving its goals in the north. The Israeli cabinet agreed in mid-September to add the goal of repatriating residents to northern communities to the war goals.

Israel then immediately began cutting Hezbollah to pieces. The terrorist group had not expected this. She assumed that Israel would remain on the defensive. Hezbollah also likely believed reports in Israel that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, known as a hawk on Hezbollah, would be removed. Instead, Gallant has cited the severe blows Hezbollah is now suffering.

Hezbollah became complacent and accustomed to attacking Israel. Now you can see how serious Israel is. However, the terrorist group cannot climb down from the tree. They have claimed that they continue to support Hamas and cannot stop that support without shame. At the same time, it does not have strong leadership that can make bold decisions.

Hezbollah expected to dictate terms to Israel

Hezbollah believed it was the driving force of this war. It had been attacking Israel for eleven months. It was assumed that Jerusalem would be pressured into a ceasefire and that the Jewish state would then stop fighting in the north. The terror group also expected to keep its arsenal largely intact. It was not expected that Israel would force it on the defensive. The group was unprepared and ill-prepared for such a war.

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Hezbollah had always expected that it would choose the time and place of any war with Israel. It was also expected to be able to take the initiative. Now its plans have been destroyed and it has lost so many key commanders that it will take some time for it to get back to normal and right itself. Although the war was expected to be low-intensity and end in Hezbollah victory, its arrogance appears to have brought the organization to the brink of ruin.

Hamas and Iran’s other supporters now recognize Israel’s resolve

Hamas expected to survive this war and continue to control Gaza. It saw Israel waging a cautious war in the coastal enclave and expected that a ceasefire would eventually be imposed on Israel. Hamas was pleased that Hezbollah was pressuring Israel from the north. For 11 months, the Gaza-based terrorist group that carried out the October 7 massacre grew accustomed to having Hezbollah as a strong ally that could threaten Israel with 150,000 rockets.

Now Hamas sees that Hezbollah cannot withstand Israel’s blows. It also shows that Hezbollah’s missile threat may have diminished. The now-dismantled terrorist group was rarely able to fire more than a few hundred rockets per day, much less than the several thousand it was estimated it could fire.

Now Hamas must ask itself whether it will soon suffer similar setbacks as its northern partner in terrorism. Their leaders such as Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa were also eliminated. Hamas assumed that it could remain in power simply by continuing to exist.

Now it has seen Israel’s resolve and its key ally in Lebanon significantly weakened. Hamas must now ask itself whether its decision to attack on October 7 resulted in catastrophe for it and Iran’s group of proxies in the region. Instead of an endless threat to Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah have now seen the Jewish state take the initiative and manage to subdue them.

Hassan Nasrallah is dead: This is how Israel’s war in Lebanon changes

ByJasper

Iran’s most experienced ally in its sights

Hezbollah in disarray

Hezbollah and Iran now know that Israel is serious

Hezbollah expected to dictate terms to Israel

Hamas and Iran’s other supporters now recognize Israel’s resolve

By Jasper

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