Game 1 is always critical, but this time especially for the Phillies

Game 1 is always critical, but this time especially for Phillies originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

By most measurable measures – to borrow Jimmy Rollins’ famous quote before the 2007 season – the Phillies are the team to beat in this year’s National League Division Series against the Mets.

However, intangibles cannot be defined in the same way as numbers. And even without a thermometer to take the temperature of participants in the latest edition of this age-old rivalry, there is no doubt that New York will be considered the hottest team when Game 1 begins at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday at 4:08 p.m . Every Phillies fan can understand what that means by heart.

In the two years since the current format was introduced, five 100-win teams have come through their five-day break rested and ready, only to be ambushed by a wild card entry that had to do whatever it took to get that far.

In 2022, the Phillies were that team. At the end of May, they were eight games under .500. They put in a strong performance, but didn’t secure the final wildcard spot until the final weekend of the season. They finished the season with ten straight road games in Chicago, Washington and Houston before opening the playoffs in St. Louis. Instead of exhausting them, it seemed to create a foxhole mentality. They upset the Braves in the NLDS and reached the World Series.

So far, the Mets have followed an eerily similar script. Eleven games until June 2nd. Best record in baseball after that. I just secured a spot in the playoffs on Monday. By Saturday they had even run a similar gauntlet with stops in Atlanta and Milwaukee, then back to Atlanta and back to Milwaukee before finally checking into their hotel in Philadelphia.

They’ve been playing with postseason urgency for weeks, including a heartbreaking come-from-behind victory to secure their spot against the Braves on Monday and advance against the Brewers on Thursday.

In contrast, the Phillies were 33-34 after July 13.

That’s just one of the reasons why Game 1 of a postseason series is so crucial, there are several reasons to believe this opener could have an even bigger impact than usual.

“This game is a dynamic game,” Phillies catcher JT Realmuto said before practice Friday. “Success in baseball is very contagious. So when you start gaining confidence and feeling good and seeing your teammates succeed and then you make it big, it’s extremely contagious and just gives you confidence for the future.

“I think that’s something you’re seeing with the Mets right now. They’re a really hot team, they’ve got a lot of momentum, and that’s very similar to us in 2022. You come in late, drive up, and then you just roll with that confidence and it takes you further.

“I think it’s important for us to get off to a good start in this series and try to put an end to the momentum that they have clearly gained.”

To break it down further:

• Four of the five 100-win teams mentioned above that were upset in the DS lost Game 1.

• The Phillies tout their home-field advantage endlessly, and why not? They were 54-26 (.675) at The Bank, the best home record of any team in baseball. They had an away record of 41:41, making them the only team still playing that did not have a winning record on the road.

A Phillies win on Saturday would reinforce the idea that they are all but unbeatable at home. A Mets win would wipe out that lead (two of the remaining games, if necessary, at CBP and two at Citi Field). It would also be the Phils’ third straight home playoff loss since last year to the Diamondbacks, further eroding their image of invincibility in their own backyard.

On paper, the pitching match couldn’t be more one-sided. The Phillies start Zack Wheeler, who is a natural choice to finish first or second in this year’s NL Cy Young voting. The Mets will counter with Kodai Senga, who has pitched just 5.1 big league innings this year due to a shoulder injury and a calf strain he suffered in his season debut on July 26.

Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 earned run average last season and was considered the team’s No. 1 starter this season. But Wheeler is not only one of the best pitchers in baseball, he was also spectacular in the playoffs. In seven postseason starts, he had a 2.42 ERA and allowed 36 hits in 63.1 innings, for a WHIP of 0.73.

If the Mets can steal this game, it will not only add to their Team of Destiny spirit, but it will also boost their confidence as they face Wheeler in a crucial Game 5.

The Phillies insist they can flip the switch now that the postseason is here and that the rally towels, bright lights and national attention will make all the difference. If they come out flat again, that must raise doubts

“The Mets are very talented,” warned Phillies manager Rob Thomson. “They can beat you in many different ways. They are well managed. They can steal bases if they need to. The defense is solid, the starting pitching is really good. And yes, they are on the move. (But) you can lose it, as you know when you watch us against Arizona last year. You can lose it terribly quickly.”

Winning Game 1 would be a big step, even bigger than ever, in ensuring the Mets lose their mojo.