Folie À Deux’s opening weekend could be at the box office in 2024

Despite high expectations, suspicions of Oscar competition and an open field in theaters, WBD and DC Studio’s comic book sequel has a budget of around $200 million Joker: Folie À Deux seems headed for a major disappointment on its opening weekend and could end up as a box office punchline in 2024.

The current numbers

Joker: Folie à Deux took in $7 million from Thursday previews in North America, barely more than half of its 2019 preview gross joker. The first film grossed a hefty $96 million domestically – despite being an R-rated release – and $234 million worldwide before grossing over $1 billion. And all of this, mind you, without a release in China.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice hasn’t missed a beat so far and is expected to close above $390 million this weekend and soon cross $400 million in worldwide grosses.

The wild robotafter winning last weekend with an above-average $35 million domestic performance, should easily benefit from its fantastic “A” rating from audiences thanks to Cinemascore and a 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes critic score, bringing its North American domestic haul to about $65 million increase. Animation remains an important factor in visitor numbers.

With a current audience rating of 38% on Rotten and an even worse 37% on Rotten Tomatoes, director/co-writer Todd Phillips (with screenwriter Scott Silver) Joker: Folie à Deux went somewhat suddenly last week from a $70 million debut in the US to the current expectation of $45-55 million. I expect the thread to be threaded exactly in the middle of this area.

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As more data came in and was reported shortly before and during release – including additional audience and critic reviews such as PostTrak and Metacritic – signs increasingly pointed to a majority negative reaction.

There were also aspects of the film’s release that may have contributed to a poor opening weekend. For example, the fact that it is a musical was largely concealed in the marketing Joker: Folie à Deuxas well as the co-stars of Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker and Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn. Meanwhile, initial reactions to the Venice International Film Festival were mixed, with increasingly negative signs pointing to an impending downturn.

Best case, worst case

For the record: As bad as the numbers look right now, keep in mind that this is all based on presales, online buzz, and Thursday early screening data plugged into typical (and deeply flawed, consistently wrong) box office equations. Much of it is worthless for predicting international opening results.

And Joker: Folie à Deux brought China to the forefront, something the first film lacked. However, China alone is unlikely to help much if the rest of the international markets fail to deliver.

A real worst-case scenario might look like a painted face transplant at around $300 million. If The data from the first 20 or so hours of domestic showings is indicative – and that’s a big “if,” even if the rest of the data seems to support these gloomy expectations.

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A more moderate version of the “it does significantly worse but isn’t a flop” outcome might be more likely if these international markets are better. With current projections in the neighborhood of $45-55 million domestic, it’s just a decent move. While it’s not an amazing result, it’s still not the $70 million drop that a $45 million dollar result would mean.

Then, if international production pans out and exceeds expectations like some of the other big releases this year, the total overseas could be around $85-90 million (currently I’m still expecting around $80 million). closer to the $150 million mark. So if China delivers a decent result when Joker: Folie à Deux Bows in the Middle Kingdom, then the film could easily have a good hold for the rest of October and into November – especially overseas.

That could all be enough to put pressure on Joker: Folie à Deux to a final multiplier in the 3.5x range. That could bring in anywhere over $600 million. And as the weeks pass and audiences flock to theaters in search of entertainment, the film’s status as an adult-oriented sequel to a billion-dollar hit from a major brand could lead to soft declines.

But it won’t take long to realize this potential, because both Smile 2 And Venom: The Last Dance arrives later this month to delight both the older R-rated audience and the broader superhero/comic book genre audience. Still, those foreign numbers could continue to perform well even as competition enters the market, and a weak total of over $600 million avoids going into the red from a box office perspective.

So at this level it’s hardly a disaster, but it’s also a major setback Jokers Billion dollar business. And make no mistake, it’s a huge disappointment for DC Studios as it’s the first live-action release under the new studio banner. Since it’s a sequel to an Oscar-winning blockbuster, there’s a good argument for the studio’s handling of the marketing and overall positioning Joker: Folie à Deux would hurt the film’s chances.

However, we’ll have to wait until we see the Cinemascore to better understand which direction Joker: Folie à Deux is on the way. That’s an important indicator of future audience sentiment and word of mouth, and anything less than a B+ would be bad news.

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A B+ is more in the middle range and it depends on whether these reactions basically tend towards a “B” or a “+”. A film like 2016 Suicide Squad turned a B+ into a lengthy $749 million blockbuster run during 2023 Shazam: Fury of the Gods“B+ resulted in a disastrous $134 million worldwide (one of the worst results for a DC live-action film in cinema history).

If by some miracle the film gets an “A” cinema rating and we see walk-up business push it well above current basement expectations, then that would be a sign that other data is being significantly underestimated Joker: Folie à Deux.

In that case, it could still come within striking distance of $1 billion, but we’d really need to see it significantly exceed current low expectations and then significantly outperform internationally – which would likely include a big break in China. But without such a miracle there may be no real chance for it Joker: Folie à Deux run away Deadpool and Wolverines Coronation as the greatest R-rated film in history.

And an audience grade of B would almost certainly indicate a worst-case outcome, especially without large numbers well beyond the data we’re seeing so far.

Final expectations

My initial and moderate estimate is around $50 million domestic, $80 million overseas, $130 million for the weekend, and a final tally of over/under $400 million. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see it outperform the current bleaker outlook and perhaps play a little stronger and longer to claw its way to $500 million.

Of course, this is all less than 24 hours after showings began and everything could change when the numbers come in this weekend.

All eyes will be on tonight’s numbers and Saturday’s sell-out and how good early ticket sales look overseas. But so far it seems likely Joker: Folie à Deux will be among the underperformers of 2024 – not the result DC Studios wanted for their final theatrical release before next year Superman Reboot of the entire DC film universe on July 11th.

So it seems the studio will have to take solace in the overwhelmingly positive response to the Max streaming series The penguinOffshoot of Matt Reeves’ successful The Batman Cinematic Universe, which opened in 2022 with $772 million. A sequel, The Batman – Part IIarrives October 2, 2026.

If after one Joker: Folie à Deux Underperformance or complete flop, writer and director (and co-CEO of DC Studios alongside Peter Safran) James Gunn Superman Even if the blockbuster flight didn’t happen in 2025, I wouldn’t be surprised to see WBD position Reeves’ position at this point The Batman Universe as a “backup” from which another newly launched shared superworld can emerge.