Fantasy Football Week 5 Wide Receiver: Target Jayden Reed

Before we get into my favorite fantasy football plays of Week 5, let’s take a look back at some of the guys I liked in Week 4.

I’m just trying to set expectations appropriately low.

Starting Tuesday evening, here’s a first look at my (for now) favorite fantasy pieces of the fifth week – the guys who (in some combination)…

• Could be high in my fantasy rankings compared to industry consensus.
• Must be started in most seasonal leagues.
• Must be added if disclaimers are involved.
• Possess underestimated advantages.
• Have advantageous matchups.
• Should be taken into account in daily fantasy.
• Create coveted dynasty acquisition targets.
• Belong to teams with player-friendly betting odds.
• Catch my attention with your player projections.
• Stand out with our player props tool.

Some comments.

Updates: After submitting this post, any changes in my opinion will be taken into account my rankings And my projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), which I will update throughout the week.

Ranking Accuracy: Last year I was #18 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest. This was my sixth season with a top 20 finish.

Rating and ordering: All fantasy points are half PPR points unless otherwise noted. Players are roughly (but perhaps not exactly) ranked according to my rankings within their position.

Abbreviations: Check the end of the article to see what abbreviations I might use.

Bye week: The Lions, Eagles, Chargers and Titans are off this week.

Sports betting data: Odds are as of Tuesday, October 1st at 8:15 p.m. ET and are based on consensus lines in our Fantasy Life Odds Page.

The rest of my favorite fantasy football plays for Week 5, ranked by position, are below:

Best WRs for Fantasy Football Week 5

Jayden Reed (Packer) at Rams

• Packers: -3.5
• O/U: 47.5
• TT: 25.5

I don’t want to focus too much on just a two-game sample (#NailedIt), but going into the season I was expecting a second-year bounce for Reed anyway, at QB Jordan loveThe two starts are exactly what we saw: 312 yards and 3 TDs on 14 targets and 2 carries.

And in his two games with backup QB Malik WillisHe still had a respectable 115 yards on 8 targets and 4 carries.

With his ability to line up throughout the Packers’ lineup and contribute as a receiver, runner and even returner, Reed looks like the 2014 No. 2 Player of the Year Randall Cobb …except maybe even better.

Although he’s not an all-down player, Reed’s 77% snap rate is enough to support his performance, especially since he’s been so efficient in converting his opportunities throughout his career (9.7 yards per target, 12.4 per carry).

The Rams are No. 31 in Defensive Dropback EPA (.312) and I like Reed’s matchup in the slot against CB Quentin Lakewho has allowed 11.2 yards per target this year.

Amari Cooper (Browns) at Commanders

We’ve gotten to the point in the article where I’m highlighting the primary WR against the Commanders. This week it’s Cooper, who has massively disappointed this year with no more than 35 scoreless yards in three of four games.

But he rewarded loyal fantasy investors with a 7-86-2 receiving performance in Week 3, and for the season he has a 95% route rate and 25% target share, so the underlying data is encouraging. With more than 8 goals in every game, Cooper can support high-end production.

And of course, he’s going up against the Commanders, which really matters since they’re No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (39.7). biggest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (+8.8).

You are still facing an Alpha/No. 1 WR who didn’t score against them.

Cooper is no longer a true alpha, but he is still the top receiver in his offense and that should be enough for Week 5.

Khalil Shakir (Bills) at Texans

• Bills: Pick’Em
• O/U: 47
• TT: 23.5

I highlighted Shakir in this article last week and will do so again this week.

I wrote an article about it in the off-season 11 stats from 2023 that matter in 2024and here’s what I had to say in it about Shakir and his 13.6 yards per target:

Regression will visit Shakir in 2024. Nobody can maintain the kind of league-leading efficiency he showed last year.

But WRs Stefon Diggs And Gabe Davis are gone, and WRs Keon Coleman And Curtis Samuel have no established connection with QB Josh Allen.

Given that Shakir made the most of his opportunities last season — he led all qualified pass-catchers with a 73.3% reception success rate — he has a chance (albeit an outside chance) to be Allen’s No. 1 prospect to become a WR.

His yards per target mark will certainly decline, but Shakir’s efficiency in 2023 could mean an increase in 2024 chances.

It’s too early for a victory lap, but for four weeks this analysis seemed prescient. Shakir’s efficiency has declined (though his 12.1 yards per target is still obscene), and he leads the team with 18-230-2 receiving on a 20% target share.

As road underdogs, the Bills could have a play-oriented script, and I like Shakir’s slot matchup against CB Jalen Pitre.

When transitioning from safety to cornerback this year, Pitre posted a career-worst coverage grade of 52.2 (per PFF), and last week — in his first matchup against a No. 1 WR who competes primarily in the slot — saw Pitre Christian Kirk scored a season-high 12 goals, which he used to produce a record of 7-61-1.

Jordan Whittington (Rams) vs. Packers

• Aries: +3.5
• O/U: 47.5
• TT: 22

I’m not saying you should start with Whittington. I like using vulgarities as much as the next man – but even I don’t have a mouth dirty enough to say something like, “You need to start Whittington this week.”

But if you’re in a deep league with multiple flex spots, or if you’re in a bye-week crisis, or if you’re just looking for a cheap DFS WR…then you might consider Whittington.

Without WRs Puka Nacua (knee, IR) and Cooper Kupp (Ankle), the Rams will likely use Whittington in three WR sets again, and last week he lined up all over the lineup and dominated usage for the team with a 97% route rate, 26% target rate, and 26% target rate of 30%. Target share, which he converted into a respectable 6-62-0.

The Packers are No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (52.2%) and may be without their No. 1 CB again Jaire Alexander (quadriceps, groin) and backup CB Carrington Valentine (Ankle).

The deep route

DK Metcalf (Seahawks -6, TT: 25) vs. Giants: The Seahawks are at a rare four-day rest and preparation disadvantage, but the Giants are vulnerable on the perimeter with CBs Deonte Banks (47.5 PFF coverage level) and Cor’Dale Flott (62.2). After an unforgettable Week 1 with new OC Ryan Grubb, Metcalf has a record of 21-337-2 with 32 goals in his last three games.

Diontae Johnson (Panthers +4, TT: 19) at Bears: With QB Andy DaltonJohnson has a record of 15-205-2 with 27 goals in two games. That’s enough. He has one NFL-high 8 end zone and 6 green zone targets.

Deebo Samuel (49ers -7.5, TT: 28.5) vs. Cardinals: Samuel missed Week 3 with a calf injury, but otherwise has 70+ scrimmage yards in every game, averaging 8 targets and 4 carries. The Cardinals are No. 32 in Defensive Dropback SR (60.2%).

DJ Moore (Bears -4, TT: 23) vs. Panthers: “If you stab us, won’t we bleed? When you tickle us, don’t we laugh? If you poison us, won’t we die? And if you do us wrong, shall we not take revenge?” With 34 goals and two runs in four games, Moore will have a great performance in the end.

Terry McLaurin (Commanders -3, TT: 24) vs. Browns: McLaurin was terrible the first two weeks (3.3 yards per target), but he has since broken out (11-152-2 receptions on 16 targets). He has one NFL-high 53% air yards.

Dontayvion wicks (Packers -3.5, TT: 25.5) at Rams: With WR Christian Watson (ankle) injured, Wicks offers potential to win the league: Last week, he had his best numbers of the season with 5-78-2 receptions on 13 targets and an 80% success rate – and he could have had even better stats considering his career-high 144 unrealized air yards had in the league and dropped a potential TD. My goodness. The Rams are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (39.0%).

Josh Downs (Colts +3, TT: 21.5) at Jaguars: Since returning from the ankle injury that sidelined him in Weeks 1-2, Downs leads the Colts with a 36% target rate and a 32% target rate in the last two games and last week at QB Joe Flacco He was 8-82-1 on 9 targets. The Jaguars are No. 2 in most fantasy boosts allowed to WRs (+7.0) and in dealing with secondary injuries to CBs Tyson Campbell (thigh, IR) and Darnell Savage (Quad).

Yes’Lynn Polk (Patriots -1, TT: 18) vs. Dolphins: If you feel like slumming, last week Polk had a team-high route rate of 87%, a target rate of 21% and a target share of 24%. After Monday Night Football, the Dolphins are one day behind and ranked 32nd in Defensive Pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (55.5%). Burn your money.

More fantasy football games for Week 5

Abbreviations

• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Overall (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success rate (SR)
• Percentage of Completion Above Expectations (CPOE)
• Defense Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Target Depth (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long descent and distance (LDD)