Don’t count out Breece Hall, even in a tough matchup: The Wrong Read, Week 4

Welcome to The wrong reading. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to understand how an upcoming matchup might unfold in terms of each offense’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be if they try to pass? How far will they be able to run the ball?

It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by examining the advanced metrics we can better understand the dynamics that may not show up in the box score every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signals that could indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.

The figures below include data from weeks 1-3 and the final three weeks of 2023. This means that staffing changes are not fully reflected in these figures – I will point this out where it matters. But we can still get a good feel for what to expect from each of these teams. I’ll highlight the matchup’s most salient features under each graphic.

A note on the images below: I’m trying something new with the rankings and color coding. All rankings and colors are now based on the offensive perspective. A 1st place in the defensive rating indicates that they are the easiest to hit for the opposing offenses. Likewise, a ranking of 32nd place indicates that one team represents the most difficult duel. This makes it much easier to look at the images and see which matchups are the most favorable for the offense.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This playoff rematch is a study in contrasts, especially in the ground game. The Eagles rank 2nd in both EPA per rush (0.04) and yards per play (5.02). (We’ll get to the Bucs’ rushing game below.)

Tampa Bay presents a manageable challenge, but one that limits yards both before and after contact. Saquon Barkley will need to do some damage on some explosive runs.

The Eagles present an interesting conundrum in the passing game. They rank second in the league in pressure allowed, but that means just that Jalen hurts has the opportunity to hold the ball even longer. Only two teams have a longer average throwing time.

The Bucs are a stingy pass defense that often blitzes and gets to the opposing quarterback quickly. Philadelphia will be hoping their running game is up to the task, especially without DeVonta Smith and possibly without AJ Brown. Dallas Goedert could be the focal point again, but he could also be the focal point of the defense.

On the other side of the ball Baker Mayfields The resurgence in Tampa hasn’t quite carried over into 2024. The Bucs rank 14th in EPA per pass (-0.04) and 17th in yards per game.

Only four teams get to the QB faster than the Eagles’ pass rush — bad news for a Tampa Bay offensive line that has the third-fastest time in the league to apply pressure. Tampa Bay would like to take some pressure off the passing game against an Eagles run defense that allows rushing yards freely. The problem is that the Bucs don’t seem to want to accept them.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Many of us had high hopes for Denver’s passing attack. We’re now hoping that it only takes a few games for a rookie to get used to it. The Broncos rank 26th in EPA per pass (-0.19) and 26th in yards per play (5.35).

They face one of the biggest challenges in week 4. No team allows fewer yards per play or less EPA per pass than the Jets. No team plays tighter coverage. New York doesn’t blitz often, but still generates a pressure rate of over 40%.

The Jets’ offensive difficulties themselves are well known, even if the numbers below only partially reflect this Aaron Rodgers’ play. In any case, New York ranks 25th in EPA per pass (-0.18) and 27th in yards per play, and Denver’s pass defense presents a difficult matchup.

The Jets’ typically strong rushing attack also faces a tough test. They rank eighth in rushing yards above expectations (13.2) and only one team gains more yards after contact, but the Broncos are just as strong against the run as they are against the pass.

Only three teams allow a lower rate of explosive runs than the Broncos. This doesn’t seem like the best combination Breece Hall And Braelon Allen. Then again, we’ve seen explosive runners take advantage of Denver’s defense before. Hall is certainly talented enough to break off some long runs.

The Jets’ rushing defense isn’t as strong, but the Broncos have struggled to move the ball on the ground so far in the young 2024 season.

Week 3 saw Tyler Badie Give it some time and he seemed to be the most effective option. Still, it’s unlikely he’ll play a big role in Denver’s crowded backfield in Week 4.