As the next storm of the hurricane season moves across the northwestern Caribbean, more warnings are expected for the Florida coast throughout the day.
Already on Monday evening, the expectation of Helene had led to the issuing of a tropical storm warning for the Lower Florida Keys. Late Monday evening, an additional warning was issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.
The storm, which is expected or be nearby By the time it reaches the northern Gulf in the next two to three days, the threat of a major hurricane could still be in its humble beginnings.
Once the system has become better organized, it is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico and form an extensive wind field with tropical storm-force winds.
As I wrote last week, the northwestern Caribbean has an exceptionally high ocean heat content that extends across the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico. Once a definitive center develops and the system matures, there will be plenty of warm water to supply it.
General conditions favor intensification into a hurricane tomorrow with widespread impacts along Florida’s Gulf Coast, well outside the National Hurricane Center’s forecast range.
A large wind radius, which triggers the tropical storm warning for the Keys, will push water onto the coast over the next few days. This will lead to storm surge fears far from the final landfall location. Therefore, a storm surge warning has also been put in effect for the southwest coast of Florida.
While it does not pose a direct threat to the South Florida metropolitan area, the growing wind field is likely to prove problematic in many ways.
Wednesday will be windy, followed by passing showers. Some of the heavier and more concentrated downpours could pose a risk of flooding. While 5 to 10 centimetres of rain are possible for the rest of the week, with heavier amounts possible in some places.
Wind gusts of up to 72 km/h are also possible in the heavier rain bands that pass through through Thursday. In addition, an increased risk of surf backwash is expected as sea conditions remain generally hazardous.
It is important to note that a track that brings the storm a little closer to the peninsula may alter the impact somewhat. Please continue to monitor the forecast as Helene moves through the Gulf.
Helene will be the 8th named storm of the year. As previously mentioned, it would be the fifth storm of the season to develop into a hurricane by Wednesday. If it develops into a major hurricane, it would be only the second to do so.
While the model forecasts have not changed dramatically in terms of the storm’s final location, fluctuations in the intensity forecast are possible for the next day or two. Focusing solely on the forecast history only gives you a snapshot of the storm’s impact. Wind, rain, and storm surge are expected to blanket the Gulf Coast as the storm moves from south to north. We’ve seen this before…
